⛽️🔥Who is the 2023 WR1?

Rookie Mock 3.0/ Conference Finals preview and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy! 

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From now until April 27th (and probably for months after), there will be a great debate as to who should be the WR1 of the 2023 Draft Class. Right now, Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Nigba, USC’s Jordan Addison, and TCU’s Quentin Johnston lead the way. Both have their strengths and weaknesses, and we have months to dissect each prospect’s profile.

First, we have Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN). The Ohio State prospect is listed at 6’1” and 200 lbs, which is ideal size for a WR in today’s NFL. As you can see in the graphic below, his metrics stack up pretty well as he is in the 75th percentile or higher in 4 of the 6. The two severely lacking are his Dominator Rating (% of a team’s passing yards and TDs, weighted evenly) and Weighted Dominator Rating (same as Dominator Rating, but yards are weighted 80% and TDs are weighted 20%). The reason for this is due to his 2022 season. JSN only played in 3 games (40 total snaps) in all of 2022, accounting for a season-long Dominator Rating of 0.9%. For reference, in 2021, JSN had a Dominator Rating of 26.1% and a Weighted Dominator Rating of 29.9%, both of which would have been right near both Addison and Johnston in terms of raw metric and percentile. As of right now, JSN is my personal WR1 of the 2023 Draft Class. 

Next is USC’s Jordan Addison. Addison is probably the most well-rounded of these three in terms of metrics, but his size will caution fantasy managers. He is currently listed at 6’0” and 175 lbs. I’m sure the BMI haters will be out in full force soon as they were for DeVonta Smith two years ago. The WR prospect won the Biletnikoff Award (most outstanding collegiate WR)  in 2021 for his incredible season at Pitt (100 receptions, 1593 yards, and 17 TDs). As he transitioned to his role at USC, he only saw 23% of his snaps come in the slot (68% in 2021) but proved he can win in all areas of the field. He is probably the consensus WR2 at this point, as he is likely to provide a safe floor and be a reliable dynasty WR2/3 at worst. 

Lastly, and probably the most polarizing prospect, is TCU’s, Quentin Johnston. His polar chart below is all over the place and his season-long counting stats will be attractive to some. He never really had a “big” season until 2022, where he had 1067 yards on only 60 catches (17.8 yards per reception), but he had a lot of disappearances along the way, including a 1-catch CFP Championship Game vs Georgia. Johnston will have people drooling over his size/speed combination as the WR is listed at 6’4” 215 lbs, and projected mid-4.40 40-yard dash time. Like I said, Johnston will likely be a polarizing prospect along the way, but it sure will be fun to be part of the discussion.

Rookie mocks have been flyin’ this past week as we get amped for the Senior Bowl.  Last week we took a peek at some of the hottest names that have been rising up our mock boards in January.  This week we will take a look at some of the notable prospects who are as cold as ice lately.

Zach Evans (RB, Ole Miss) - Evans' ADP continues to slide this month as he is down to 18.6 in the middle of the second round, losing 8.8 spots from last month as a back end first.  With virtually no real buzz from the NFL mocks we have seen so far, it is becoming apparent he may not be as highly thought of at the next level as some folks think in the dynasty space.

Marvin Mims (WR, Oklahoma) - Mims is one of these WR prospects that people just seem to not want all that much without knowing his landing spot and draft capital.  In January, we have Mims going at 3.02 with an ADP of 28.2, down seven spots from last month.  I actually like Mims as a best ball league target right now with his big play capability.

Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee) - Based on our mocks, it's pretty clear who people want between the two standout prospects from Tennessee this year.  Tillman continues to plummet into the third round with an ADP of 29.4 in January, whereas Hyatt is still hovering at the start of the second round with an ADP of 14.9 this month.  Some would argue that Tillman is actually the more complete receiver between the two, but the injury history and difference in speed between these prospects is reason enough for most drafters to fade Tillman.

Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia) - The single biggest faller in the month of January has Darnell Washington crashing down to 4.02 with an ADP of 39.0.  Washington is an amazing blocker, as he uses his size to manipulate defenders at the line.  I have seen him mocked in the first round in many NFL mocks, so I think the cause for concern is mostly around his actual fantasy usage.  Often I see prospects like Luke Musgrave or Dalton Kincaid taken in favor of Washington as they both project to be used more as pass catchers at the next level.

If you would like to participate in our rookie mocks and help shape our ADP this off-season, click the link below!

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

R - E - L - A - X. 

In the famous words and tone of Aaron Rodgers, relax. It's ok to be a bad team, and own the 2023 Rookie 1.01 pick. Is it going to turn your dynasty squad around in the traditional way of thinking? No, probably not. It's very unlikely that drafting Bijan Robinson at 1.01 suddenly vaults you into contender territory. That's fine. To say you can't handle, or are built for taking Bijan at 1.01 is assuming too much, though. It's Not even February yet. The NFL hasn't even officially concluded the 2022 league year. Hell, we still have three more games to be played. There is so much time. The amount of things that can change between now and September is almost infinite.

Who's to say you can't make some heady moves and set yourself up to construct a team around Bijan properly? No one. That's the answer. Even if that isn't the route you intend to take, you have so many forks in the road over the next seven months that will still lead to long-term success. 

Let's throw out the obvious one. You trade the pick for a haul between now and draft time. That one is easy. Let's look at some little-discussed options. Now, and even more so after the Super Bowl, there is nothing to discuss in Dynasty that has to do with the actual play on the field. We'll all be 100% invested in off-season mode. Where free agents are landing. What these rookies project to be. How well do they look in shorts? All of these lead to one simple thing, value gain. The hype of say, a Bijan Robinson is low relative to where it will be. Even after draft time, we'll have ample time to discuss at nauseam every little thing he does. Say you take Bijan 1.01, and you hold through the entire summer. We get to pre-season, and he houses a 50-yard TD in true Bijan fashion. You're gonna tell me there is no market for him in your leagues? Get out. His hype will still be at a high for quite a bit if not increase during that time. 

The main takeaway is to relax. It's fine. You'll be fine. Time is on your side. It's the value accrual season, do NOT decide what you're gonna be in the November of 2023 season. You can and should be patient. If he's the 1.01, which looks likely, treat him as such. Don't be in a hurry to pivot for some off-season championship.

Burrow to continue success vs the Chiefs? @Just_Ike09 believes so

In 3 career games vs the Chiefs (all wins), Joe Burrow has amassed 982 passing yards, 8 TDs w/ only 1 INT; comes out to an average of 327 yards & just shy of 3 TDs per game. I do not see this changing as the Chiefs' defense ranks 20th in Pass DVOA & Burrow went for 286 in their prior meeting this season. 

The current o/u for Joe Burrow’s passing yards on PrizePicks is 272.5 (there’s currently a promotion for a free square if he passes for more than 0.5 yards) & on Underdog, it is currently at 279.5 yards. Either way, you need to smash the over! Look for Burrow & the passing attack to keep their success going vs the Chiefs in the AFC championship game. 

 @EricVanekNFL wants 2023 Second-round rookie picks and he tells you his strategy to get them.

What should we be doing in dynasty right now? I think with the film sessions that RayGQue has been doing for the Patreon; lately, just made me realize I want more and more high second-round picks or just second-round picks in general. 

There are so many really good running backs in this class that I just want as many picks as I can grab to get these guys.

Right now, I want to start moving multiple thirds to get a second. If I can accomplish this, I want to do that, back to the trade block talk from last week as well. I want to move some of these movable pieces who someone may want to get some more capital so that I can move around the board, and/or use those picks to draft the players I want. I don’t think I’m going to be in love with these later-round WRs, but this is a really good running back and tight-end class. Some of these tight ends I’m going to want to take some shots at TE Premium leagues or start 2 Tight End leagues. 

So that is the goal over the next month or two, start to move those roster clogger-type pieces, and pick up some extra picks, move up in the draft. Give yourself some flexibility but be in a good spot to pounce on a lot of these Running backs and some of these Tight Ends in this upcoming class. 

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