Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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WAKE UP Video of the Week

There will be no player spotlight this week as the focus will be the upcoming content available to the All-American tier and above over within our All-Gas Patreon.

Once February hits, our updated Analytics Database will be posted. Our database includes almost every possible collegiate stat and metric you can think of. All production, athletic, and advanced stat you can imagine is at your fingertips. We have well over 100 yearly metrics for each position in addition to summary metrics for each prospect going back to the 2004 NFL Draft Class all the way through the 2025 Class.

Second, and for the first time ever, we will be rolling out our Prospect Analytics Grades. Each position group will have a position-specific model that has been well thought out and statistically proven to be predictive to NFL success. JB will provide a detailed analysis on the metrics he used and didn’t use for each position, only available to our Analytics Discord channel. This has been something long overdue, but we are excited to bring it to you all!

Lastly, specific modeling tests will be run through the entire offseason, looking at incoming rookies as well as players entering their second and third year in the NFL. We will take a deep look at which players are targets to buy and which ones are sell-high candidates.

I’m excited for what this offseason will bring, and I cannot wait to not only present my findings but also discuss them with you all!

Fantasy football is in the rearview mirror as we prepare for another off-season and what better activity to fill the void than rookie mocks! With Sleeper putting some of the bigger names from the rookie class into the pool this week, people have been quite excited to participate. Shame on them for still missing Cedric Tillman, amongst others, at the time of writing this. In any event, let's take a look at some of the hot names this month in our community.

Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA) - January has seen Charbonnet on the rise, moving up 3.5 spots in our ADP to 12.1 as a back-end first-round selection. Zach has great size for the running back position at 6’1” 220 lbs and was utilized as a bellcow at UCLA, displaying excellent vision on the ground along with soft hands in the receiving game.

Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pitt) - Izzy is up nine spots in January with an ADP of 21.9 right now. Recent Patreon film review sessions have us all salivating at his unique elusiveness and top-end speed. If he gets taken with premium draft capital at the next level, he is going to go even higher than a late second in our rookie drafts.

Rashee Rice (WR, SMU) - Rice is one of my personal favorite wide receivers in the class, and it's nice to see his popularity catching on with the rest of the group in January. The Mustang senior has gone up 7.6 spots this month and sits at 17.0 as our WR6. I expect Rice to gain even more momentum with more eyes on him at the Senior Bowl.

Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) - Flowers is another favorite of mine at the wide receiver position as he climbs up 4.7 spots in January to 18.7 on the month in our ADP. When I turn on the film for Zay Flowers, I see a very shifty and explosive receiver who is very capable with the ball in his hands. Like Rice, we are starting to hear more NFL buzz around these wide receivers, so it will be very intriguing to see where a guy like Flowers ends up and how he will be used at the next level.

If you want to help shape our ADP and join mock drafts with Ray and the Destination Devy team click below!

Throughout the off-season, I will attempt to identify key players who could wind up being key Buys or key Sells based on injury concern. A reminder that these are all projections based off of past injury, theoretical healing rate, and theoretical injury risk moving forward. These players are high-level athletes who receive 24/7 treatment from (most of the time) top-notch medical professionals. They often change their routines (diet, training, warmups, post-care, etc) in attempts to preserve health long-term (think of Deebo Samuel, who dealt with multiple soft tissue injuries until he revamped his entire training and dietary regimen and has remained relatively healthy since). Without further ado, our first injury profile is:

JK Dobbins, RB Baltimore

Talk about a hot streak to end the season. JK led the league in rushing yards once he returned from a second surgery to debride scar tissue out of his surgically repaired knee, rushing for 397 yards from week 14-17 (ahead of CMC, who had 394 across the four games). JK averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, finishing fifth in rushing yards after contact with 2.4 in that span (of note, directly behind Cam Akers’ 2.7 and Tyler Allgeier’s 2.5), had six broken tackles, and only two tackles for loss in 57 attempts. He also led the league in this span with 13 rushes of 10+ yards (Derrick Henry was 2nd with 11) and tied for first with CMC and D’Onta Foreman with four rushes of 20+ yards. With these numbers, I would assume his explosiveness and power has returned… but if it actually hasn’t, and he was only at 80-90% health for those last four games of the season, watch out for 2023. JK Dobbins is back, ladies and gentleman, and he’s pissed off. And get this: he only reached a 50% snap share ONCE in those four games, and it was exactly 50%. And he still led the league in rushing in those four weeks.

The fact that he performed this well coming off of a second surgery is a great sign. Initially, I had been worried about his recovery, considering how extensive it was (ACL/LCL/PCL/meniscus AND hamstring tear) while also dealing with in-season setbacks of swelling and stiffness. However, objectively looking at this case, there is a decent chance that the second surgery helped address the remaining scar restrictions, allowed him to get near full range of motion and reducing stiffness, and closer to full function. Objectively, his mechanics seemed to improve significantly upon his return in week 14, displaying less stiffness in his left leg and looking less “hobbled” with each run. When it comes to movement analysis, he seemed to return very close to his prior form.

The main downside against the case for Dobbins is that in that same span, he only had two targets for one reception, capping his overall ceiling if he isn’t scoring touchdowns. While he was used more in the receiving game in playoffs, it simply wasn’t there during the season. You aren’t rostering JK for his receiving upside though. You’re rostering him for his near-elite rushing upside. Another potential downside is that Dobbins will be up for a contract extension soon, so in due time we will find out if he is valued as a top running back by the Ravens or if he is viewed as expendable once contract negotiations pop up. However, he is talented enough and presumably long-term healthy enough to maintain top form with reducing injury risk moving forward to warrant landing a lead role elsewhere if the Ravens let him walk. When it comes to price to acquire, ideally, he winds up being no higher than your RB2, who can offer a safe weekly floor with upside as one of the best red zone and goal-line running backs. From an injury perspective, JK Dobbins has shifted from a risky asset into being a Buy this off-season. Acquire accordingly.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Adam discusses the value of 2023 second-round rookie picks.

Unfortunately, there will be no 4D Chess Dynasty Football Podcast this week due to me getting COVID and losing my voice. Mike is somewhere screaming, “I need to get my winners to the people!” Don’t worry--our winners will be coming soon. For me, while I may not be able to talk, I can still type!

This week, I want to stress how valuable 2nd round picks are in 2023 superflex drafts and how I want as many of them as possible this year.

Last night (Wednesday), Ray did a breakdown of the film on Zach Charbonnet. Man, did he turn heads on multiple occasions this year! Charbonnet is a big, strong, and physical running back who is also capable of being a pass catcher. These are the kind of attributes that get people excited in fantasy football.

The running back position is DEEP in this class. Other backs in this class may not possess Charbonnet's size and strength, but they have other very special and different skill sets. Devon Achane, for example, is the complete opposite of Charbonnet. Achane was listed at 5'9” and 185 pounds this year, but he possesses elite speed and quickness.

Like Achane and Charbonnet, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Sean Tucker, Zach Evans, Chase Brown, Izzy Abanikanda, and studs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are some of the names that make up the many exciting running back prospects in this class.

By the time you add in the four high-end quarterback prospects in this class and throw in Michael Mayer at the tight end position, you are well into the second round before even mentioning a receiver! (That being said, there are still a lot of receivers to like in this class.)

Long story short, if someone out there is trying to throw away that late 2nd round “that isn’t worth anything cuz it’s late” pick, go scoop those up right now.

This is one of the big differences between 2023 (a deep draft class) and shallower classes like 2022. If you have late 2nds in this class, but don’t know who you are going to get, stay patient, and don’t give up those picks today.

-ATM

@FantasyGenes has some advice for the divisional-round matchups

No pod this week but I want to leave you with some notes for the Divisional games. You can apply this when trying to decide on bets, props or drafting playoff best ball teams.

• Jags/Chiefs

  • Etienne not being used in the passing game at all

  • Kirk went for 9-105-2tds Week 10 vs Chiefs

  • Mahomes vs the Jags Week 10, 220 of his 331 pass yards and 3 tds came when Jags played zone

• Bills/Bengals

  • Bills will need Playoff Gab to continue to show up. We know Diggs will get his by any means

  • Bengals facing the Bills who rush 4 and play a lot of zone so Burrow will need his make-shift line to keep him upright

  • Tee Higgins lead the Bengals in yards, yards per route run, receiving yards over expected and receptions vs zone

• Giants/Eagles

  • Giants play man coverage 46% of the time(highest of team’s left in the playoffs)

  • AJ Brown was #1 in yards vs man and Devonte Smith was # 4

  • We saw TJ Hockenson kill the Giants so expect Goedert to do some good things

• Cowboys/49ers

  • Cowboys have +125 pt differential and 49ers have played only 2 teams during their 10 game winning streak with a positive pt differential

    • Lamb and Schultz should be able to expose the zone defense if Dak gets protection

  • Pollard should lead the backfield in opportunities again this week

  • Christian McCaffrey will be the best RB on the slate but

    • CMC with Mitchell = 54.6 yards rushing per game

    • CMC without Mitchell = 92 yards rushing per game

What's an auto-accept-trade block? @EricVanekNFL discusses this using the Wide Receiver position.

It’s time for the Auto Accept Trade Block! This is something myself and Scott Connor came up with a few years ago, and it has worked wonders. So what is the auto-accept trade block?

It is basically setting up prices for your players that are fair and reasonable. Can you do this with studs? Sure, for myself, mainly this is a spot to sell some pieces you might have too much of. Got too many RBs? too many roster clogger-type WRs? This is the way to sell some of those guys. Darius Slayton? Isaiah Hodgins? K.J. Hamler? those types of players.

So on MFL, you can do this easily in the trade bait screen, just click the player you want to trade and type out a price for them.

Example - Darius Slayton - 2023 3rd

Isaiah Hodgins - 2023 2nd

K.J. Hamler - 2023 3rd.

It’s basically sticking a price tag onto your players, someone can come in and buy them if they like the deal. It’s an easy way to get some action on some of your guys. If anyone send what you want? You just auto-accept it.

On Sleeper, you can just update the nickname of the player and tell your league mates this is what I would accept for this player. It’s a good tool. Please check out America’s Game this week, where we will dive into this in full detail!

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