⛽️🔥 3 Notable ADP Risers & Young WRs to Buy

Underdog Roster Discussion, Trade of the Week and More

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During last night’s AMA, I was ecstatic to hear our own RayGQue say this player’s name near the top of his film grades. This 2023 WR has always been a favorite of mine and is currently graded out into my Platinum Prospect Tier. Meshing the analytics grades with the film grades makes me extremely confident to say that Josh Downs is my WR3 in the 2023 Draft Class.

In his true sophomore season, Josh Downs posted 101 receptions, 1335 yards, and eight touchdown season. As you can see from the dark green above, those are incredible, whichever way you want to look at it. He was the man for Sam Howell, posting 3.49 yards per team pass attempt and a 38.3% weighted dominator.

As a junior, Downs has a slight downtick across the board, mostly due to missing a few games. However, the WR prospect still finished strong as a WR1 for 2024 QB Drake Maye. His “down” season is someone else’s a great season.

I fully expect Josh Downs to hear his name called during the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and that will keep him locked and loaded as my WR3. However, the only concern I have is his size. Downs measured in at 5’ 9” and 171 lbs at the NFL Combine. He wins with his quickness and does not rely on his size to get open. I think a lot of teams will be very happy with him as their slot WR, corralling in every ball thrown his way.

With three weeks left until the NFL Draft, the excitement is in the air around the community to see where all these rookies land. Some of us will be right, and most of us will be wrong about these rookie values; the key will be how we adjust to our prior convictions to make sound choices in our rookie drafts. This week I want to highlight some of the notable risers from our ADP in the month of April as we head into the NFL Draft.

Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) - Our current WR3 with an ADP of 9.5 in April, Zay Flowers, has been gaining steam with big media as a probable first-round selection in the NFL Draft. His ADP has gone up every month since November, starting as an early third and now rising to a back end first. If he lands in a great situation, I expect him to finish as our WR2 behind JSN in these mocks.

Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee) - Despite his age and torn ACL, the rumblings are growing around the NFL that Hendon Hooker could be a late first-round selection in the NFL Draft. The question has been asked many times, “If Hendon Hooker goes at the end of the first round, how high should we be taking him in our rookie drafts?” Our ADP has Hooker at 14.8 so far this month which has improved from last month by seven spots. I suspect this will continue to rise as we approach the draft.

Jayden Reed (WR, Michigan State) - For our long-time readers of my contributions to this amazing newsletter, you know good and well I have a soft spot for Jayden Reed. I haven’t even been taking him lately in the mocks I participate in, but the good people around me are starting to believe in the Spartan. With an ADP of 39.9, he’s up the most this month of any prospect, improving eight slots over last month. The range of outcomes for Reed are a fourth-round sleeper to roster clogger at this time, but he could surprise people at the NFL Draft and go higher than we thought.


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Beyond the Mic🎙

Layers of the 2023 Class

The 2023 Class has been hyped as a ridiculous class for a couple of years now. We are 3 weeks from the 2023 NFL Draft, and we have everything from the prospects in this class outside of draft capital and landing spots.

1.01- 1.07

This class, in terms of what we view as elite fantasy assets, appears to be a disappointment. Bijan Robinson is a generational talent at the running back position. The other high-end prospects don’t quite make dynasty managers feel secure, which is why I am constantly grading trades where people are leveraging picks (typically starting at the 1.02) into more solidified upper-tier assets.

Many are concerned with Bryce Young’s size and if he can hold up at the next level. C.J. Stroud is seen by many as basic, a pumpkin spice latte if you will, a safe dynasty quarterback but one lacking high-end upside. In my view, Anthony Richardson offers outrageous upside and a fairly high fantasy floor because he is the most athletic quarterback we have ever seen, but many do not think he can throw the football and is an NFL quarterback. This leads them to believe he doesn’t have staying power in dynasty. Will Levis is viewed in a completely different tier than the aforementioned quarterbacks, even though he is nearly a lock to be a 1st round draft pick in the NFL. Jahmyr Gibbs has many elite traits, but only weighing in at 199 pounds, many are fearful of his size and that he can handle a large workload in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems like the safest receiver in this class, and he has good community perception, which makes him a nice and safe asset. Even for JSN, some think he is only a slot receiver and is worried about him not running the 40-yard dash, which, once again, keeps him from being viewed as a truly elite dynasty asset.

Back End 1st Round and Early Round 2

Starting at the 1.08 is where, almost universally, dynasty gamers are looking to pivot out of the 23 class into future 1st round picks if possible. Quentin Johnson has question marks surrounding him, whether it's helmet scouting the Horned Frogs, question marks about him high-pointing the football, and him not smashing at his pro day, in particular with drops. Jordan Addison does not have a physically imposing frame and did not test as a high-end athlete. The community is not as high on these two wide receivers as they are on JSN. The reason this is key, is that they will not be afforded the same grace period if they do not perform well early or if they are injured.

The dynasty value shift that has occurred in 2022 is very likely to make these two receivers penciled into the top 9 picks in Superflex.

Where dynasty gamers go with their pick at the 1.10 has much more deviation. Zach Charbonnet, Kendre Miller, Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, Michael Mayer, and Jalin Hyatt have all been drafted in the 1st round of real money pre-NFL rookie drafts that I participated in. And once we get to the early 2nd, you can add Hendon Hooker, Devon Achane, Tyjae Spears, Marvin Mims, and Dalton Kincaid to the list.

Mid 2nd to early 3rd

The next group is Tank Bigsby, Darnell Washington, Zach Evans, Roschon Johnson, Kayshon Boutte, Israel Abanikanda, Rashee Rice, Cedric Tillman, Deuce Vaughn, and Chase Brown. This group of prospects is primarily running backs who have traits that could amount to fantasy success in the right situation. This is an important thing to note as we begin to look at the next group.

Mid 3rd to 4th

When we get to the middle of the 3rd round, one of the positions that become a value is the tight end position. 4 tight ends, in particular Sam Laporta, Tucker Kraft, Zach Kuntz, and Will Mallory were available by the middle of round 3 in every draft I have taken part in so far. The running back position thins out quite a bit here, however, as Kenny McIntosh, Mo Ibrahim, Eric Gray, and Keaton Mitchell were the only rbs who were consistently available at this point in the draft. There are still plenty of receivers to draft in this range, but the key here is understanding your league. Receivers in this range are very likely to fall into the roster clogger territory range in lineup leagues, whereas in bestball leagues, it is more reasonable to take shots on the Parker Washington’s and Rakim Jarrett’s of the world.

The questions about the guys in the elite tier are valid. Only time will be able to answer them. While this class doesn’t offer a significant number of elite-level prospects and is devaluing how many view the 23 class as a whole, please do not miss the fact that this class runs deep with prospects in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, especially those who profile much better than 2nd and 3rd round picks in most classes.

Especially in bestball formats, one of the key takeaways for me at this stage is that I prefer to shoot multiple shots in the 2nd round at the running back position because of the number of well above-average backs in this range. Then in the 3rd round, I can shoot multiple shots at the tight end position because I still can land four quality tight end prospects who could matter in bestball if they land in the right situation.


This week, we participated in a joint Superflex Big Board Bestball draft on Underdog and would like to share a couple of our initial thoughts on this new contest.

The first rule when entering a new league is to check the settings, and we noted that the third WR spot is now a Superflex spot. Therefore, the starting lineup consists of 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and 1 SuperFlex. For those familiar with Superflex leagues, it is known that QBs tend to be drafted quickly. However, we observed that 4-5 teams were waiting until past the fifth round to secure their second QB. One team, for instance, started their QB room with ARich in the 5th round and then waited until the 13th to get Jacoby Brissett. While we are unsure if they read the rules, we would not recommend this particular strategy as it poses significant risk given the uncertainty of when these players will generate points. Perhaps if they were entering 30+ entries, this strategy could be justified, but we advise against this type of build.

Our second observation is that WRs continue to be highly sought-after. Despite having one less WR starting spot, we anticipated that WRs would be drafted at a slower pace than in the 1QB Big Board tournament Underdog previously offered. However, this was not the case, as the draft room was still aggressively targeting WRs. In fact, we did not select our first RB until the 6th round (Aaron Jones).

As always, we recommend participating in these types of drafts to get a sense of the landscape throughout the offseason and to take note of how the tides shift on certain players as more information becomes available.

In this week's column, I want to highlight three wide receivers in this year's rookie draft class that I think are a little underrated right now and give them some love.

The first one is Tyler Scott, the WR out of Cincinnati. Now Scott has been labeled as just that deep-threat speed guy, and he’s a lot more than just that. Yes, he can blow the roof off any defense with his wheels, but he can make crossing routes, quick slants, and take them to the house just as easy. He’s got really solid hands as well, and I like what I saw from him. Dane Brugler has been all over this young man since the beginning of the process, and he thinks Scott will be a 2nd RD pick in a few of his mocks. With his speed and abilities, it wouldn’t shock me!

The next one up is C.J. Johnson out of East Carolina. He was the go-to man for ECU, and quite frankly, I just haven’t heard too much about him. Even the mock draft database just does not have him too high, but I really liked what I saw from the big man. He measured in at almost 6’2 and 224 LBs. At his Pro Day, he said he ran between a 4.57-4.61, so think Treylon Burks mold just a little bit. I think CJ Johnson might be a later-round pick 6 or 7, but I really liked his skill set and size, and I’m intrigued about where he lands.

Lastly, Malik Knowles, WR out of Kansas State. One of the go-to guys for K St. the last two years, and when you first see him as well, you think he’s just a one-trick pony, but he’s not that. I saw him run a few more routes than that, but he is electric with the ball in his hands as a Kick return specialist. I saw him take some screens to the house, along with deep crossers, as well as the deep ball. Knowles is a playmaker and another guy I’ll be keeping my eye on come draft day.

Last week, we dove into the wide receiver group and explored some aging assets that might be undervalued and underappreciated in our dynasty leagues. Now it’s time to have a serious talk about some of these young WRs that may be valued in a range where selling now could mean major profit for your team.

We will be looking at a range of WR that has averaged 900-1200 yards receiving over the last two years, have a target share of 19-24%, and is currently valued in the top 36 of Keep Trade cut. When running these numbers, I found about 15-18 wide receivers with similar stats, including Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, and Hollywood Brown. There were a couple of names that really stood out that we need to discuss. WARNING: these names may hurt some feelings, but the numbers don’t lie...

To start off, we need to have a similar conversation on two highly valued WRs. Let’s kick things off with a guessing game! This player is WR10 on Keep Trade Cut, and in each of the last two years, he has averaged 74.5 catches, 1060 yards, and 6.5 TD with a target share of 20.1%. Who’s this? We are talking about none other than Tee Higgins, who has never had more than 110 targets, over a 21% target share, and hasn’t had a finish above WR18 on the year. Going into year 4, the hope around Tee is he finds a new home where he can be the one on his team, but the rumors in Cincinnati are about keeping this offense together.

The other WR is currently WR5 on KTC and has averaged 89.5 catches, 1185 yards, and 7 TDs with a 22.4% target share. This is one Jaylen Waddle. While his efficiency improved from year 1 to 2, his targets dropped by 23, and his target share dropped by nearly 4% with the Dolphins' addition of Tyreek Hill. While he finished WR8 in PPR this year, he would have to maintain that elite efficiency AND get a sizeable bump in targets in order to get out of this flat tier of WRs ranging from WR 8-22.

So what do we do to maximize the value? First things first… KNOW YOUR TEAM AND KNOW YOUR LEAGUE!!! Really sit down and assess where your team sits and what moves make the most sense for your team, your league settings, and your overall roster construction. Now back to the ideas…

I would explore moving both of these players for the top 4 of Jefferson, Chase, AJ Brown, or Ceedee Lamb. At least reach out to see what the cost would be. I have seen Waddle and a 2nd get Brown and Higgins and a 1st get Chase. Send out the offers! Let those managers tell you no, or name their price. This isn't an end-all be all though. If I am a bottom 4 team and have a shot at an early pick in 2024, I am not moving that pick.. so again, know your team.

The next thing I would explore is to see if I can take my Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle and move them for another WR with similar production like a DJ Moore, Godwin, Kirk, McLaurin, Dionate, etc. and try to get a 1st back. If I need to add a 3rd to get that done, I am happy to do it. Ex. Waddle and a 24 3rd for DJ Moore and a 24 1st. I would be willing to exchange WR in this range as well if it nets me a 24 1st. This liquid asset can do so much for you in season and beyond.

Bottom line, let’s not get hung up on the names and recognize when we have an asset on our rosters that is at or close to peak value. This will give us the best chance to dominate our dynasty leagues!

Dynasty Trade of the week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? The Bengals Alpha WR Ja'Marr Chase and Derek Carr or Justin Fields and the late 2023 3rd?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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