Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy! 

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 Click on the link below to view This Week's Wake-Up episode/Prop bet videos and more!👇 

Quentin Johnston took part in TCU’s Pro Day yesterday, and his 40-yard dash time had opinions all over the place. Some thought it was slow, while others talked about how his RAS of 9.60u had others talking about how he is WR1 in this class. To me, he’s not close to even being in the WR2 consideration, and here’s why…

Johnston had a solid collegiate career but his best season stats were only slightly above average. In his final season, Johnston had 60 catches, 1069 yards and 6 touchdowns. He finally had a big raw statistical season under his belt, but it took until his 3rd season for TCU to finally get him going. In his first two years, he only had reception shares of 13.5% and 16.5% playing alongside guys like Taye Barber, Blair Conwright, and Derius Davis. I apologize for putting those player’s names in this light, but Johnston should have blown those guys out of the water when it comes to receptions. I can understand the low raw volume output, but from a percentage standpoint, Johnston’s numbers are pitiful when looking at who he was playing with.

Average reception share, best season yards per team pass attempt, and best season PFF Rec Grade are three of my highest weighted metrics in my analytical model and Johnson grades out poorly in all three. His breakout age of 19.0 is great, but he never hit the 30% dominator rating I love to see in my WR prospects. Going back to the opening paragraph, athleticism is not factored into my WR model whatsoever. However, the athleticism is there and should bode well for his draft capital in a month. 

Bottom line for me: Quentin Johnston is not a WR I will have many shares of if the cost is WR1 or WR2 in this class. His prospect profile lands in my Gold Tier (Tier 3) and even with Round 1 NFL Draft Capital, that is where he will stay.

With the NFL Draft a month away, we continue to ramp up our rookie mock drafts for the 2023 class.  Our community has conducted over 90 Superflex mocks on this class since last June, running with the highs and lows of all these fantastic prospects.  This week we will take a look at how high we have selected some of these prospects over the course of the last year. I hope you enjoy!

1.01 - Across our sample, only three different prospects were ever selected first overall.  Bijan Robinson dominated the one spot all year, but some CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson have been sprinkled in as well more recently.

1.02 - Both Bryce Young and Will Levis have occupied the 1.02 at their peak, along with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  Kayshon Boutte also has a 1.02 on his record from pre-season, my how the mighty have fallen.

1.03 - Hendon Hooker set this record mid-season in October after his 5-touchdown performance against Alabama.  The hype was palpable, and the hope is still there for some as I hear whispers of late first-round capital in his range of outcomes.

1.04 - Jordan Addison is one of my personal favorites in the class, and it wouldn’t surprise me if I was the one to take him this high.

1.05 - Sean Tucker and Zach Evans have been big names for us in the past, and selecting them top 5 certainly reflects that.  Presently these guys have both fallen into the second or even third round of our mocks.

1.06 - I must say I am a little surprised that Quentin Johnston never went higher than this if JSN, Addison, and even Boutte have gone higher.

1.07 - Michael Mayer has the tight end record for our community at 1.07 and has been the TE1 dominantly through the majority of all our mocks.

1.08 - Zach Charbonnet is a community favorite presently and has enjoyed a nice rise over the course of our mocks from being a third-round afterthought to a priority option at the back of the first.

1.09 - Zay Flowers has been gaining so much steam lately and is routinely being selected in this area of the draft now.  Tank Bigsby and Devon Achane both occupy this record as well, but both are finding homes in the second round more recently.

1.10 - I know for a fact that I have the Jalin Hyatt record, and frankly, I’m surprised it's only 10 with how infatuated I am with his speed and hands.  Marvin Mims and Josh Downs both share this 1.10 as a high point in our mocks, along with community favorite Kendre Miller at running back.

1.11 - Tyjae Spears has found his way into the first round, generally gatekeeping the early portion of the second.  Ray was early on the talent of Spears, and it's great to hear him getting that NFL buzz to go with it.

1.12 - Rashee Rice rounds out the list of all prospects ever selected with a first-rounder in our mocks.  I like Rice as a talent on the field, but he is slipping in our mocks, unfortunately.

Which prospect are you in complete shock that has never been mocked in the first round for our community?  Yell at me on Twitter @DynastyBerry83, and let me know!

UNDERDOG FANTASY

We're excited to announce that Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WakeUP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember. 

Injury Profile: Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

Let’s get this part out of the way: Is Lamar Jackson injury prone? Yes, for the time being, he is injury prone. The main reason is because of his most recent injury that he suffered, which was a significant PCL injury that cost him at least six games at the end of the season and likely would have taken longer for him to return to prior function. A PCL injury would leave him prone to an inherent instability of his knee, leading to a potential risk for hamstring strains, meniscus or cartilage injury, or other compensatory injuries. Over time as his knee continues to heal, his risk should continue to reduce and allow him to return to his prior elite form with rushing upside, but the question remains of when that would be. In theory, it should be as early as OTAs, and he should be fine for the 2023 season by week one, but it’s something to keep an eye on, considering it was a significant ligament sprain.

Do we need to be concerned about Jackson and the whole “mobile QB” injury-prone myth? No, we do not. This myth has been debunked for a while now, and Jackson’s significant injuries have all occurred as he was either in the pocket or rolling out to pass, not as he was rushing downfield. You can put those concerns of “he’s a rushing QB, so he’s at more risk for injury” to bed and move on. The PCL sprain is the largest injury concern moving forward for his knee and lower extremity, but his prior high ankle sprain carries very low reinjury risk long-term. In theory, he should be able to return to his top 5 elite scoring projection, and would pay off with any type of injury discount that you can secure right now. Buy accordingly, even despite the amount of games he has missed over the last two seasons.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Mike and Adam have begun the process of beginning the craziest thing in dynasty leagues: Fantasy Rookie drafts BEFORE the NFL draft. The test of conviction is needed in these types of Rookie drafts

Tap into the latest 4D episode to help you out if you are one who enjoys this type of Rookie draft in your leagues.

We have been hammering Underdog Big Board contests the last few weeks and even made a pod about the recent draft Ike, and I just did.  I feel really good about this team that Ike and I drafted, so I want to talk about our best and riskiest picks, in my opinion.

The best pick for me was Austin Ekeler.  Last year he was the #1 WORP RB and #2 overall WORP player behind Justin Jefferson.  He has talked about wanting to get a new deal, which he won't get from the Chargers, most likely, so I expect him to get worked before getting dumped.  Also, adding Kellyn Moore as OC, he should be in a very favorable situations.  Definitely expect him to repeat as an RB 1.

The riskiest pick is Justin Fields.  Yes, he smashed last year for fantasy owner, and he was blessed with a proper #1 WR in DJ Moore.  The problem is the offensive line is still shaky. We have to factor in rushing regression and have to hope that he makes a significant improvement passing-wise that offsets the mentioned regression.  I like that we stacked Fields with DJ Moore, but taking a QB that's not Mahomes, Hurts, or Allen at pick 36 goes against our strategy.

Scratch your itch with some Underdog best ball.  It is a good exercise to get a gauge of the fantasy climate.

In this weeks column, I want to highlight some rookie TEs in this really good 2023 class. Everyone has heard the names Mayer, Musgrave, Kincaid, Washington, and so on. In this one, I want to highlight some of the not-so-popular names at the TE spot that we should be looking at in this upcoming draft.

The first one I’m going to highlight is Zack Kuntz from Old Dominion. So interesting story on Kuntz back in 2018, the Penn State Nittany Lions had three TEs they were going after. They ended up getting two of the three. One was Pat Freiermuth, and the other was Zack Kuntz, both of those committed to Penn State. The other? Kyle Pitts, and they wanted Kyle Pitts to play Defensive End. So let that sink in there. Kuntz put up only the second-ever RAS score of 10 at the TE spot. The other was Jelani Woods last year. Kuntz was a playmaker at Old Dominion. He ended up transferring over there and made the most of it. This past season he ended up getting hurt but the year before? 73 catches, 692 yards, and 5 TDs. Pretty good for a TE in college. Kuntz is someone you want to keep your eye on.

Next up is Luke Shoonmaker from Michigan. Another guy with a super impressive RAS score of 9.86. He was not often used at Michigan, much like a guy you may remember in George Kittle at Iowa. Shoonmaker is another super impressive athlete who could have a way better career in the pros than he did in college. In his senior year, he put up 35 catches, 418 yards, and 3 TDs. Once again not overly impressive, but with the way he plays the game, he should be a day two pick in a super impressive TE Class.

The last one I want to bring up is yet another Penn State from the same class as I mentioned before with Kuntz. Brenton Strange from Penn State. Another super high RAS score of 9.03. Penn State is just a factory for producing RAS freak athletes at just about every position. Strange, much like the other guys didn’t have super impressive numbers in his last year. 32 catches, 362 yards, and 5 TDs. Strange is another guy I’m hearing could get Day 2 capital, and if he does look out, it’s just another TE to add to this super impressive class. Follow the RAS scores on these guys! 

There is an understandable tendency within the dynasty community to fade age and lean toward youth when valuing players. This is especially true in the evaluation of the wide receiver position.  However, In PPR points per game last year, the top 10 players at the position included a large number of older vets. Names like Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins all cracked this list. Today I’m going to highlight a couple of veteran WRs by looking at the discrepancy between their dynasty KTC values and their current Underdog bestball rankings to see if we can target a few names to get some cheaper points on our rosters.

Tyler Lockett is the first name that I have on this list. While coming in at just under 15 PPG in 2022, he ranked as the 18th WR in PPG. However, Lockett will be turning 31 during this season, and due to this is coming in as WR 50 on KTC. In contrast, though the Underdog community still sees the upside. Lockett is the 32nd WR off the board in ADP, coming in as a fringe WR 3, which would still be a very useable piece on most rosters if that ranking came to fruition. There has been some buzz about the Seahawks adding to the WR room during the draft, so you may want to hold off acquiring him till we know more information. But if you want to take the risk, he could be a very useable flex this year on a contender.

Keenan Allen is another guy whose situation compares pretty well with Lockett’s. Allen battled with a nagging hamstring injury last year and missed seven games which could leave some people with a sour taste in their mouth. However, even with a game in which he left early included, Allen posted a 12th-best 16.4 PPG last year. It looked like, at one point, Allen might be one of the best WRs to hit free agency as a cut candidate, but the Chargers committed to keeping him on the roster as the team battled to get under the salary cap. They restructured both his deal and Gerald Everett’s to keep them paired with Herbert and new OC Kellen Moore. Allen will also be turning 31 here next month, and the dynasty community has brought him all the way down to WR 46 on KTC. Underdog ADP has him 19 spots higher at WR 27 off the board, though. With the main pieces coming back, I believe they could opt to address the TE room instead of the WR in this draft. If so, I’m willing to take the shot and ride one more year with one of the best route runners in the game.

The last player I want to highlight is DeAndre Hopkins. With a KTC ranking of 37 but an Underdog ADP of 17, the 30-year-old WR is a full 20 positional ranks higher on Underdog! The great thing about Hopkins, though, isn’t even his 16.9 PPG last year after coming back from suspension. It’s the unknown. Hopkins has voiced his displeasure with the direction that the Cardinals organization has been trending, and this, coupled with Kyler’s injury, has him requesting a trade to go ring chase for his remaining years. This is the hope that Underdog players are buying into, that Hopkins can be paired up with an MVP-caliber QB and increase his value in both redraft and dynasty. There have been rumors floating around about many teams making the move to acquire him, but some of the most intriguing to me are the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens.

If the old WR move isn’t the bet you want to take for your dynasty leagues, then maybe instead, you can go over to Underdog and draft them for your best ball teams. Using promo code “TFDR” at signup while you’re making your first deposit to get that sweet deposit match and destination devy discord access. Just know… they will be a lot more expensive over there.  

Dynasty Trade of the week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades. 

What side of this deal do you want? A random 2024 First Round Pick or Isiah Pacheco?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7, click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day, get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues. 

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