⛽️🔥 Can we Predict rookie QB success?

Daniel Jones Projections,Trade of the week and More

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On this week’s episode of Who’s Next, I took a deeper look at trying to predict the 2023 QB Class’ rookie season output.

Needless to say, Draft Capital is king for this position. No collegiate metric stacks up to NFL Draft Capital, and rightfully so. Actual Draft Capital signals what an actual NFL franchise thinks of that QB and how they will likely treat them going forward with the investment they have made.

As you can see in the prediction tree above, the first and most important cut-off for draft capital is around 52.5. Ultimately, anything higher (drafted later) than that, and a QB is looking around 5.1 PPG during their rookie season. Anything lower (drafted earlier), and you're looking at 12.9 PPG their rookie season. Over double the PPG output just by separating QBs at that 52.5 overall selection threshold.

Taking it even further, as you go down toward the right of the tree, you can see the next and final breaking point is the 13.5th overall pick. Those drafted within the first 13 picks of the NFL Draft are likely to have around 14.4 PPG their rookie season. 14.4 PPG isn’t spectacular, but it hits the threshold for what we want to see out of rookie QBs going forward. You’ll have to listen to this week’s episode of Who’s Next or wait until next week’s All Gas Newsletter to see the Year 2 Predictions and why 14.4 PPG is a great indicator moving forward. Predictions for the 2023 NFL Draft Class are shown below.

Over the past weekend, I finally completed my remaining rookie drafts. Most of these leagues have been going on for several years, with the oldest still taking advantage of a live draft scenario. We were able to gather most of the group into a live voice chat where everyone was able to interact and enjoy the festivities together. Hearing commentary from some of my league mates about particular players or selections quickly became intriguing. Some people have wildly different viewpoints on the same game we are playing. The level of conviction was something to applaud, regardless if I saw eye to eye on those scenarios. Never count another man’s pockets; always be the aggressor when engaging in trades. Deals you may think are impossible could easily be acceptable by others who view the game differently than you. I pivoted many of my later picks into futures and consequently watched my league mates draft roster cloggers I had no interest in owning.

The way I play, I want to leverage those future picks for deals that will impact my contending rosters in-season. Having those extra seconds and thirds to dress up better deals down the road will pay off more than holding hope on your favorite day three wide receiver.


Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

After getting a lot of questions and feedback about the QB hoard episode, I wanted to give three thoughts and keys to implementation.

First, the league needs to be Superflex and 12 teams or more in order to pull off the qb hoard effectively.

Second, stay in towards the top 20 QBs in dynasty, which are not completely devalued, and hanging onto a starting role by a thread.

And third, do not force this strategy if qb runs happen and they clearly no longer at a value.

When drafting with the intention of a hoard, the people you are drafting with may panic and react during the draft, which effectively pays you upfront for this strategy. In this event, draft skill players at a value and take advantage of the qb run which you created.

Rondale Moore Szn

Contrary to popular belief, the Cardinals WR that is the biggest beneficiary of DeAndre Hopkins’ release is NOT Marquise Brown. It is actually Rondale Moore. Over the past couple of weeks, his ADP is up 38 spots on Underdog (177.5 to 139.7) as he continues to be one of the bigger values in best ball.

A groin injury cut his 2022 season short, but he was heavily involved in the seven games he played in - averaging eight targets & a 22.7% target share. A player with his explosiveness & short-area quickness is someone worth taking a chance on, especially that late in drafts.

While the QB situation with Kyler Murray’s recovery from his ACL tear plays a factor, whoever is behind center can get Moore high-value targets as he showed an ability to separate - ranking 13th in the NFL with 2.13 target separation & 2nd in target separation vs.

Man. His ADP will continue to climb throughout the summer, so start gobbling up those shares now.

This week on The Overreaction Podcast, Chase and I revealed what the results were from my finalized first pass at my 2023 projections for the NFC. While the episode was a full 2-hour marathon that covered a plethora of players on the surface, I wanted to take some more time to address one of the players who really stood out to me after seeing how my rankings shook out. I didn't expect my QB 9 on the year to be New York Giants QB, Daniel Jones.

Daniel Jones came out to be stated at

Passing: 543 Att / 368 Cmp / 4004 Yds / 23 TD / 9 INT

Rushing: 111 Att / 699 Yds / 5 TD

Fantasy Points: 334.06 / 19.7 PPG / (4/-2 Scoring)

Interestingly, Jones finished last year in the same scoring format as QB 9 overall but QB 11 in PPG (Davis Webb and Sam Howell removed). It would reason that he wouldn’t need much of an improvement from last year to climb just two positional spots. The narrative seems pretty straightforward. Another year to grow in the Brain Daboll offense, an added 3rd round rookie WR in Jalin Hyatt, and the pre-draft trade acquisition of Darren Waller should only serve as benefits to one of the worst receiving corps in the league in 2022.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? A 2024 1st or Treylon Burks and a 24 3rd?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7, click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day, get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues.

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