⛽️🔥 Can Tua be a top 3 Fantasy QB in 2023?

Underdog Exposure, Trade of the week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

Click on the link below to view This Week's Wake-Up episode/Prop bet videos and more!👇

As we approach our ramp-up on Underdog drafting, I want you to consider a critical factor before you take on more entries. Exposure management is crucial for BBM4 and Weekly Winners. If you draft someone once every 12 entries, that works out to an exposure of 8.3% which is considered the baseline average for Underdog. ADP has shifted from the beginning of the tournament up to today and will continue to have changes as we get through training camp and NFL rosters begin to clarify for the regular season. If you already have high exposure to a player and that player’s ADP has improved from your first drafts, enjoy that banked exposure and stop drafting more shares in these tournaments.

An example from my personal exposure is Marvin Mims. I have multiple drafts where I drafted him at around 180 in ADP, but he is currently sitting at 159. Let other people take Mims at his increased ADP and enjoy the discounts you got months ago on these players you identify in your portfolio as over-exposed vs present cost. If you like Marvin Mims and want more of him, draft him in the smaller tournaments that fill in the blink of an eye. These tournaments only capture that week-long window, so you won’t get crushed by early ADP swings.

Caleb Williams: QB##??

I was on Facebook (I know, first mistake) earlier this week and saw a post in a well-known fantasy organization’s group that asked: “Where would you rank Caleb Williams among current fantasy quarterbacks?” Some of the responses were downright awful. Someone said, “Last. ‘Cause he hasn’t played a down of professional football.” Another said, “Sam Howell, Malik Willis, and Spencer Rattler want to know too.”

Long story short - if you’re looking at fantasy like either of these two and not already preparing for the classes to come, especially the one we’ll be drooling over in about nine months, you’re doing it wrong. Sure, none of those QBs above received high-end NFL Draft capital (Rattler TBD), but we’re talking about Caleb Williams. A QB prospect in the same light as Trevor Lawrence. A prospect who would have been the 1st overall pick in this 2023 NFL Draft Class. But let’s take a look at where Caleb Williams should be looked at in the current fantasy landscape by comparing him to KTC’s QB5 and QB6, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

The radar chart above shows the percentiles for each category in the respective statistics for that given year, as shown in the title. To sum it up in the most simple way, the red dots (Caleb Williams) are closer to the 100th percentile (far edges) than any of the orange (Trevor Lawrence) and green (Justin Herbert) dots. Caleb Williams’ 2022 season was incredible, and he won the Heisman Trophy, but it was also a better season than a former NFL Draft 1.01’s final year. Not pictured, but Williams’ true freshman year at Oklahoma was similar to that of his sophomore year as well, showing that he has multiple seasons of similar production and efficiency under his belt entering his third collegiate season. Williams arguably has a rushing floor similar to both Lawrence and Herbert, but his ceiling is much higher too.

Now is all of this guaranteed to translate to NFL success? No, nothing is guaranteed. However, if he was putting up similar numbers to two top-6 QBs in both his freshman and sophomore seasons in college (across two conferences), I’m willing to bet on that. A few of those guys on the Facebook post should go trade away their 2024 1sts for Sam Howell because they don’t even deserve the lottery ticket into the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

As of July 14th, 2022, Caleb Williams is slated to be the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the statistically proven collegiate metrics predict he will have success in the NFL, both in real life and for fantasy. What more do you want?

Caleb Williams DESERVES to be ranked as, at worst, a top-8 dynasty asset, and you should value him there sooner than later.


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Training camp is upon us, and we’re right in the middle of SFB drafts (hope you’re having fun with those!), so it’ll be interesting to observe the hype change as we see videos surface, interviews from players or coaches, and certain names gain steam. There is already some movement on a few players:

Kyler Murray recently stated that his goal is to be ready for week 1 of the season, pushing hard to accelerate his progress. There is a lot of talk about how his ACL tear occurred in December, but I think it’s important to remember that his surgery was delayed until January Third. By the time week one comes around, his timeline to return would be eight months and eight days out. Is it possible? Yes, I would say there is certainly a chance he could play week one, but you’d be getting a lesser version of Murray, likely with somewhere between 25-50% less rushing production early on until he gains steam into mid-season form. He’s turning into quite the value in SFB drafts, though, because if you’re drafting him as your QB3 (currently QB24 in ADP, but rising) you could wind up getting his 25+ points per game by the time mid-season roles around and then for playoffs. Just keep in mind that his bye week is week 14.

Brock Purdy remains on track to be ready for week one, which presumably will be as the starting quarterback for the 49ers over Trey Lance. As long as he clears each throwing program step with flying colors and proves to be fully healthy, there really is minimal question as to whether he should start or not. He led the team to six wins plus two key wins in playoffs with efficient play. One could say that Purdy, from an efficiency standpoint, was essentially Jimmy Garoppolo without the bone-headed throws every game, and fits the mold of what Kyle Shanahan wants in his starting quarterback – one with good accuracy, good timing, minimal mistakes, and can extend plays when needed. Purdy helped the 49ers put up at least 33 points in five of his six games at the end of the season, plus another 41 against Seattle and 19 against Dallas in the playoffs. Somehow he’s still going in the QB25 range, including in SFB, where he averaged 26.69 points per game (higher than Kenny Pickett, Derek Carr, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and Mac Jones, who are all being drafted ahead of him.

Isiah Pacheco may not be cleared for training camp, still recovering from surgery to address a torn labrum in his shoulder (and likely already healed from his hand fracture at this point). He was a solid producer for the Chiefs last season, so there’s a decent chance that he’s able to step right back into his role despite missing camp reps. This may wind up being a non-factor, but keep an eye on rookie UDFA Deneric Prince. He has impressed coaches and teammates in all facets of his game, including making several impressive receptions in tough situations. May be worth a late dart since we know that the Chiefs will not give Jerick McKinnon a sizeable workload, and they likely don’t trust Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a Pacheco-like role.

Trey Palmer could be one of those late rookie draft picks (fifth round) or waiver pick-ups/taxi stashes that could net you a nice little pick upgrade in future drafts if his value increases. Tampa Bay will be an interesting team to watch this year as they plan to enter into the season with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but if things go wrong quickly, the team could continue to move off of some of their veterans, one being Mike Evans who is currently in contract extension negotiations but would be a hot item on the market. If Evans were to be moved, it sounds like Palmer has already worked his way into the WR3 role with an expectation to play in the slot. As we know, Chris Godwin’s new role will find him less in the slot and more outside this season, and we know Russell Gage’s injury history over the past few seasons. He’s practically free, just depends on who else you would use that open roster spot on. Choose wisely.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Navigating Auctions in Leagues with Wild Settings

Mike is on vacation, but Brandon joins 4D Chess this week to discuss where we currently stand in the dynasty space as well as what we are doing with some of our teams, including the Heroes vs. Villians Relegation League!

We discussed this league, but then also some strategies on how to prepare our dynasty teams for the upcoming season as the fantasy football world shifts towards a redraft mindset.

The biggest question surrounding the Miami Dolphins is the health of QB Tua Tagovailoa, as he suffered three (known) concussions in a three-month span during the 2022 season. Many thought he should retire & walk away from the game, but it appears that he has cleared concussion protocol & should be ready to roll for the 2023 season.

While Tua was on the field in 2022, he had a career-high in TD passes (25) while also being insanely efficient (via PlayerProfiler):

  • 1st in yards per attempt (8.9)

  • 1st in deep ball completion percentage (50%)

  • 1st in accuracy rating vs.

    man coverage (7.9)

  • 3rd in air yards per attempt (9.3), EPA (149.4) & QBR (68.5)

Additionally, if you take into account the EPA+CPOE composite - Tua was 2nd in the NFL, only behind Patrick Mahomes:

It was what the Dolphins had hoped to see when they drafted him with the 5th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Acquiring Tyreek Hill last off-season (119-1710-7) to pair with Jaylen Waddle (75-1356-8) certainly helped a ton as this offense was 4th overall in EPA, and the innovation of Mike McDaniel’s offense allows for many schemed/open throws.

We don’t have any reason to believe this changes, health permitting. Miami also added even more speed in 3rd-round pick RB Devon Achane (99th percentile 40-yard dash; best comparable to Chris Johnson), who should factor into the passing game in his own right. Tua is currently being drafted on Underdog as the QB10 (91), which is a good range for him, considering that he finished as the QB9 in ppg (18.4) last season. There’s optimism that he can crest the 20 ppg threshold in 2023, provided he can stay healthy - which he hasn’t been able to do for a full season…yet.

This week on The Overreaction podcast @TrophyChaseTFDR and I ran through a number of things that we thought maybe overreacted to in the 2023 season. Unfortunately, we weren't able to get to all of them on air, so I figured I'd give you another one here.

The last one that I have that we may be overreacting to as we sit here today and all through this offseason... Kyler Murray. Murray is currently all the way down to QB 13 on KTC behind all three 1st round QBs in 2023. A QB who obviously is coming off a major knee injury has undoubted concerns, but as a fantasy asset, should still provide long-term stability.

A common viewpoint in the NFL landscape is that the Cardinals could be so bad that they are in the Williams and Maye sweepstakes come next year. But we also just heard a report from Kyler’s camp that he's pushing to be ready for the start of the season. While I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt if it somehow came to be true:

1. The Cardinals will not be in the running to be that bad.

2. Kyler will begin to recover value as soon as he's back on the field. At this point, if my team has any questions about its legitimacy as a contender,

I'm trying to buy Kyler. Preferably by pivoting from Bryce Stroud or a vet QB from the Dak to Cousins range.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? The Mahomes side or the Josh Allen Side?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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