Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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We’re roughly in the middle of the off-season dead period, so I am here to tell you my biggest buy in all of my leagues: Atlanta’s second-year WR Drake London.

The Case for Drake London

I get it. It’s really easy to say, “Go buy the 2022 8th overall pick.” However, there are a lot of people who are scared of who will be throwing him the ball. Truthfully, I don’t care who it is. Drake London had 117 targets, 72 receptions, 866 yards, and four touchdowns in 2022, with Marcus Mariota throwing him the ball most of the season. Those raw numbers are pretty good for a rookie on a run-first offense.

Some of the peripheral numbers are even better. London’s 1212 air yards put him in the 85th percentile for air yard share (30.1%), his target share of 28.2% puts him in the 95th percentile, and his yards per route run of 2.07 puts him in the 85th percentile there. You’ll notice the EPA percentiles are low in the graphic below, but with any type of improved QB play, the soon-to-be 22-year-old WR is going to take a leap forward in 2023.

Navigating a startup in Dynasty can be a daunting task for those that are unprepared. Here are three of my suggestions to prepare for your next startup this summer.

1. Understand the scoring - Not all leagues are created equal, with many commissioners embracing unique scoring formats to keep people on their toes and add new layers of strategy versus traditional formats. I like to utilize an expanded version of the scoring matrix Scott Connor has talked about many times over the years to determine where there may be positional advantages to exploit. Having a firm grip on how many players are relevant to your league is one of the most important aspects to understand.

2. Build out the optimal roster construction - Once we have identified the strengths and weaknesses of each position, we can employ the many theories shared on the Destination Devy Radio podcasts regarding optimal roster construction. Knowing something simple like how many wide receivers to draft in best ball versus lineup are concepts many of your league mates won’t even bother to explore. We have to accept that every draft will be different, but having a goal of where we would like to get to should always be at the front of our minds.

3. Exploit the market - With an understanding of the scoring in the league and what our optimal roster construction should look like, we can enter the draft with an edge on the competition. The final piece to bring it all together is to look into current market trends on value and find areas you can exploit in your draft. Keep Trade Cut may not have the same scoring as your league, but what it does give you is a sense of who people like and want to value in Dynasty. The best resource though in my opinion is using Underdog ADP as thousands of drafts are done daily and every draft has a paid entry fee. The results of people chasing millions of dollars in prizes can provide insight into who could be good this season for your roster and, more importantly, who people are fading.

UNDERDOG FANTASY

Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Understanding injuries can help give you an edge over your competitors as you enter (or continue) Draft SZN, especially timeframes, and understanding which injuries to be concerned about and which ones you can likely ignore. Keep in mind many soft tissue injuries will occur during camp as players ramp up loading and training, and many of those will not matter for the 2023 season. The ones that will matter are any high-severity strains or ones that occur in the last 2-3 weeks of preseason, but even then, they will unlikely carry over far into the season. Keep calm and take advantage of any manager’s panic over injuries. There have already been some key updates during OTAs and mini-camp:

Rashod Bateman – we recently found out that Bateman is being held out of mini-camp due to irritation in his surgical foot. An interview with John Harbaugh by Josina Anderson revealed that he had the screws removed from his foot, a standard procedure well after these Lisfranc surgeries occur (Hollywood Brown played his whole rookie season with his hardware in, then had his removed the following off-season). In my post, I explained how the bone has to heal after the screws are removed, so most likely, his ramp-up in practice led to irritation as his bones are still healing, hence the cortisone injection (strong anti-inflammatory) and rest. This eases my concern on Bateman by a lot, as this is typically standard procedure and common symptoms to experience once the hardware is removed; plus, now we don’t have to be concerned about the hardware bothering him during the actual season. He still has three months to ramp up his workload and be ready for the season, so I will no longer be fading him at this point, and he comes in as a potential massive steal at cost. Underdog BestBall WR 44. Buy.

Breece Hall – if you still think Hall is a bad pick at the end of round 3 of BestBall drafts, please read this and reconsider. If you’re afraid of Y1 ACL, please read this and reconsider. Watch this video of him cutting. And this one. And this one. And this one. And this one. Everyone go spam Zack Rosenblatt’s email telling him he’s wrong, now. Underdog BestBall RB11. Buy.

Javonte Williams – was spotted doing a few RB drills and some agility work roughly seven months out from surgery, which is a fantastic sign, even while wearing his ACL sport brace. I posted a breakdown of some very encouraging signs for his week one playing status, and he was seen decelerating, jump-cutting, and then accelerating with full extension off of his right leg. Keep in mind, this is moreso encouraging about his ability to get back onto the field, considering we had heard some rumors that Denver’s front office was worried that his knee would never be the same. The sooner Williams can get back onto the field, the sooner he’ll be able to ramp up his workload for valuable fantasy production. If that starts by week 1, you’ll be able to play him much sooner than if he starts the season on PUP and doesn’t play/ramp up until week 5-8. He seems to be trending the right way, but I still think we need to temper expectations for his overall fantasy production for 2023. It’s awesome to see him out on the field moving the way he is this early on, though. Underdog BestBall RB29. I think I’d prefer David Montgomery, James Conner, James Cook, Antonio Gibson in that range before I take Javonte for 2023.

Matt Stafford – I wanted to note this one because, whether you’re in on Stafford or not at cost, the fact that we’re hearing positives about his velocity during these OTAs and mini-camp is a significant improvement from last year’s concern about him not being able to throw at all during camp due to elbow tendinitis. Velocity is up, meaning Rams pass-catchers ADPs should be up (Kupp’s safe). It shouldn’t hinder him this season. Underdog BestBall QB21. Buy.

In other news, Kendre Miller still isn’t practicing as he continues to recover from his knee surgery, but reports have indicated that he will be ready for training camp. Kyle Pitts (MCL) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle surgery) have had the same reports, currently out of mini-camp but expected to be full-go’s for camp in July so I’m not concerned about them just yet. Juju Smith-Schuster (knee) has continued to experience discomfort from his knee injury suffered last year, which is concerning and likely why New England is attempting to lure DeAndre Hopkins into town, so I’m fading Juju even at cost.Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Old, crusty RBs.

That's it. That's the blurb.

Just kidding.

I've seen some deals go down involving the crustiest of crusty RBs like Uncle Lenny or Zeke. Both of these guys are without a team at the moment. Once upon a time(last year), they were giving you serviceable weeks. Five from Lenny and seven from Zeke. Both were in favorable offenses and situations. Nothing to scoff at.

The idea of buying them for a 3rd right now may seem prudent on the surface, but I have a few issues with it.

1. IF* everything goes right, the best you can hope for is to be able to flip for a 2nd later. That assumes your league will play ball. On assets as gross as these, it feels like a bad bet.

2. Timing. It's June. The 3rd round pick carries no risk. It can't get injured, suspended, or sign a terrible situation.

These RBs, on the other hand, most definitely can. While this feels like the bottom for Lenny and Zeke for 23, it can get a whole hell of a lot worse. See such stalwarts of yesteryear as Lev Bell, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, etc. The bottom can come quickly.

3. Options. This bet is being made in June. There's a pool of about 30 RBs that can be bought for this price right now. Why limit yourself to one of them today when we know almost nothing? The prudent thing to do is explore this type of acquisition later when you have more information and roles become more clear.

The reason we love 3rds is the flexibility of what they offer. Using them up right now on subpar bets is, in my opinion, pissing in the wind.

-McNutted

It’s all about Russ & Sean Payton

Undoubtedly, the biggest question surrounding the Denver Broncos revolves around whether or not Russell Wilson can return to form w/ new HC Sean Payton running the show. By many advanced metrics & objectable measures, Russ was really bad in 2022 (stats via PlayerProfiler):

• 27th in QBR

• 28th in deep ball accuracy

• 31st in pressure completion %

• Top 6 in interceptable passes, danger plays & pressured throws

The Broncos’ offense had high expectations & couldn’t really get much going under the thumb of Nathaniel Hackett. However, there are reasons to be optimistic about this offense in 2023.

Obviously, Hackett is gone & when you insert Sean Payton, you can point to his offenses historically being very productive - in his 15 years in New Orleans, they ranked 1st in total yards six times & in the top 10 twelve times. Additionally, the passing game ranked in the top 10 a whopping ELEVEN times.

When Nathaniel Hackett was finally fired by Denver the day after Christmas, Russell Wilson gave us a glimpse of his vintage self by producing consecutive weeks as a top 5 fantasy QB to close the season (#5 in Week 17, #2 in Week 18). The offense is set up to produce & they have the weapons to get it done. Wilson’s current ADP of QB18 on Underdog looks to be a steal & it’s not too late to take advantage before the market corrects!

The theme has been projections lately, and this week will be no different. However, I want to look at a projection that looks to be a bit lower than I anticipated.

Cody’s current projections have George Kittle finishing out as TE13 with 15 games/ 53 rec/ 696 yds/ 5 TDs. While Kittle has missed at least two games each season since 2018, he has also finished top 3 in fantasy points per game every year in that same span. There is only one other TE to do this, and that’s Travis Kelce.

Kittle’s last five years:

15 G/ 60 rec/ 765 yds/ 11 TD

14 G/ 71 rec/ 910 yds/ 6 TD

8 G/ 48 rec/ 634 yds/ 2 TD

14 G/ 85 rec/ 1053 yds/ 5 TD

16 G/ 88 rec/ 1377 yds/ 5 TD

Yes, we can expect some TD regression based on last year’s numbers, but we can also expect to see increased route participation. In 2022, Kittle hit career lows in routes run, plays, and had the lowest targets per game since his rookie year. With positive regression expected in all those areas, I believe we are much more likely to see a continuation of Kittle being a top 5 fantasy option at the position than outside the top 12… health permitting.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Justin Jefferson or the package of WRs and Picks?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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