⛽️🔥 A Deep Dive into the 2023 RB Pt.1

Epson Partnership, Breece Injury Profile and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy! 

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WAKE UP Video of the Week

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For the next two weeks, I will be taking a deeper look at the RBs from the 2023 Draft Class. This week, Texas’ Bijan Robinson, Texas A&M’s Devon Achane, and Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs will have our attention. 

I’m not going to waste your time by talking about how great of a prospect Bijan Robinson is. IF you’re reading this in the middle of February you already know pretty much everything about him, other than his athletic testing scores. Right now, based on estimates, Bijan will end up with a Speed Score roughly in the 105-110 range, which, while not as high as Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor, is in an upper percentile and passes every possible threshold needed. He is the RB1 in this class and, at worst, a top 5 dynasty RB the minute his name is called in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Devon Achane’s metrics surprised me in an extremely good way. Prior to creating the graphic, I had no idea he was in the upper percentiles of every metric I look at closely for RBs. His elite speed alone will get him drafted high, but he isn’t just a speedster. His production metrics while at Texas A&M are great. His lone knock will be his size; currently listed at 5’ 9” 185 lbs on ESPN. All eyes will be on this man in Indy.

Lastly, and most people’s RB2, is Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has been my personal RB2 since his freshman year. His elite pass catching ability gives him such a bump in PPR leagues as most top-scoring RBs are the ones catching passes. Once again, all eyes will be on this RB’s size come NFL Combine time. Alabama listed him at 200 lbs and we would all LOVE to see him right there. There are fears he could end up being in the 185-190 lbs range, which may turn people away. Additionally, his speed will be on full display. Gibbs is said to have run the 40-yard dash in 4.32 seconds. If Gibbs really is around 200 lbs and runs a 40 that quickly, he’ll be shooting up overall dynasty ranks fast.

Next week, we will be highlighting the bottom three RBs from the graphic above: Syracuse’s Sean Tucker, UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet, and Ole Miss’ Zach Evans. 

Devy mocks are back in full swing with the community as we remove the 2023 class and add in the freshman 2026 class.  People are very excited to finally get shares of Arch Manning (QB, Texas) and many other prospects from the freshman class, as evidenced from our early devy mock ADP.  I tend to lean on selecting prospects from the 2024 class, the prospects that will hit my actual fantasy roster sooner than waiting on years of incoming variance.  As excited as people are for Manning, some folks don’t even consider him the QB1 of his class even; so it feels very risky to invest in the 2026 class when at best, they will hit your fantasy roster in three years if they declare early.  The way I dynasty, I am trying to operate in the now with how quickly values can shift, using a mindset as far out as two years.  If I do end up with 2026 prospects on my roster as the rounds get deeper, I would be exploring trade opportunities for proven NFL assets that can contribute fantasy points to my squad.

If you would like to participate in our rookie mocks and help shape our ADP this off-season, click the link below!

Injury Profile: Breece Hall, RB NYJ

There is not much to argue about in regard to Breece Hall, but I still wanted to discuss his outlook for 2023 and the future. Hall is the RB3 in DLF startup adp and is the RB1 on KTC, so managers are obviously not scared off of him for future value, but how will he bounce back and perform in 2023, and do we need to be concerned at all about an early start?

Hall falls into the category of elite athletes for me, comparing closely to Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley in various metrics. Obviously, JT never suffered a significant knee injury, but let’s take a look at how closely Hall and Saquon compare to each other. Hall is 5’11”, 217 lbs, and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash, with a 98th percentile Speed Score (116.9) and a 94th percentile Burst Score (131.0). While Saquon is bigger at 6’0”, 233 lbs, he ran a 4.40 40 yard dash, a 100th percentile Speed Score (124.3), and a 98th percentile Burst Score (134.7). They compare very closely as athletes.

“But Hall tore his ACL! And all of the data points to reduced production in year one off of an ACL tear!” Sure, but data is imperfect, and here’s why. If you take into account all of the data on running backs returning from ACL and their year one production, your analysis will include players like Ronnie Brown, Dalvin Cook, and Jamal Lewis, good athletes but not top notch, as well as aging running backs who wound up getting replaced the following season or working into a committee approach for younger, fresher legs. The data is often skewed. So what happens when you minimize the sample to the top-notch athletes who were above the 95th percentile in every metric tested? You get Adrian Peterson (we know about his year one production very well), JK Dobbins (he had scarring/healing issues, which is an individual issue, not global across the RB sample), and Saquon Barkley in the sample size to use for Breece Hall. That’s great company.

Some will say that Saquon is a bad example since he finished the 2021 season with 10.8 fppg; however, he started week one with a 49% snap share, had 8.9 points in week 2, then had 21.4 and 29.6 fantasy points in weeks 3 and 4 before suffering an unrelated, fluky ankle sprain in week five that affected him for the rest of the season. The important variable there is that Saquon was returning to form very early in the season, and that was after dealing with not only an ACL reconstruction with also an MCL tear and a meniscus repair, which slows down the entire early phase of rehabilitation. Breece Hall suffered an ACL tear and a small meniscus tear, and reportedly the meniscus tear only required a minor “trim” or debridement. This makes sense, given he has stated that he is ahead of schedule in his rehab and aiming to be ready for camp, which would not happen if the meniscus was repaired. You can see footage here of him at a very good pace on an AlterG at only 11 weeks out from surgery. By week one, Hall will be very close to 10 months out from surgery, which is a great timeline for his return to play. In all, I wanted to highlight Hall because I do believe he will be ready before week one of the 2023 season and I won’t be shocked if is not limited early in-season (unless the Jets specifically decide to limit his touches early on). He should smash this coming season.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Mike's Jalen Hurts Apology Letter

"If QB X goes in the 2nd round of the NFL draft, I'm interested." 

Let's look into it. Do they matter? TLDR: No.

Before you jump me about this here's some things to consider. 

QBs with 2nd round NFL draft capital in the last ten years:

Kyle Trask

Jalen Hurts

Drew Lock

DeShone Kizer

Christian Hackenberg

Derek Carr

Jimmy Garoppolo 

Brock Osweiller

2 hits and a bunch of mehs mixed with some woofs. Drew Lock did go up in ADP his sophomore year. Geno had a 9th-year breakout. Jimmy has been ok and usable. Trask, Kizer, Hackenberg, Osweiler.... yuck. So not a great start, yeah? 

If you're still not with me, let's examine point 2. IF* they hit like Carr and Hurts, you can still acquire them for a reasonable cost for a good chunk of time. Ignore Carr here, and let's look at Jalen Hurts. I was a Hurts doubter for a very long time. I'm sorry, Jalen. I screwed up. There, I got it off my chest. Jalen Hurts' 1st year, you could get him for 2nds. Maybe backend 1st's if people really believed. Fine. Easily attainable. In his 2nd year, he held an ADP of 49 overall in August. 5.01. A damn 5th round startup. All this after Wentz was long gone. Roughly cost you a 1st and 2nd in price to acquire. In his 3rd year after taking the Eagles to the playoffs and performing at a QB6 level in fantasy PPG in 2021, people like me still told you to sell. Again, I'm sorry. I screwed the pooch. "Get two 1sts and cash out" I said. Whoops. I wasn't alone, though. His startup ADP was 22.6 QB11 OVR. Backend 2nd round Startup pick.

Still could get him for a reasonable cost after three damn years of arrow up. Wild. 

No matter where on the spectrum you finally pulled the trigger in those three years, you have reaped the rewards. You allowed yourself to gather even more information, feel, and actually see a player perform at the NFL level. 

That's your hit story. The downside of missing is being left with absolutely nothing. A roster clogger at QB. A dead asset nobody wants to touch. Wasting a mid-2nd rookie pick on a QB with day 2 NFL draft capital is crazy to me. Especially considering that even the cream of the crop, elite asset Jalen Hurts has become, cost you, at most, a future pick just a mere 5-6 spots earlier after he STARTED 6 damn games his rookie year.

That's all I got for you, fine folks, this week. I look forward to Jalen Hurts winning a Super Bowl this Sunday and making me look even dumber for doubting him.

Cya next week!

@fantasygenes and @just_ike09 bring us their Super Bowl props!

The time has come. We are down to the last game of the NFL season as the Eagles & Chiefs will square off in the Super Bowl. What better way to go out with a bang than to bet on Super Bowl props? We’ve got you covered as we list our favorite props for the big game:

  • DeVonta Smith 70+ yards & a TD (+300 on Bovada)

  • Jerick McKinnon over 3 recs (PP & UD)

  • Dallas Goedert over 4.5 recs (PP & UD)

  • Harrison Butker over 1.5 FG’s (PP & UD)

  • Jalen Hurts 1st TD scorer & 50+ rush yards (+1200 on DK)

  • Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TDs (+165 on DK)

  • 3+ FG’s, Gainwell & McKinnon TD (+1200 on Bovada)

  • Travis Kelce & Jalen Hurts first TD scorer (+700, +800 respectively)

  • Jalen Hurts 250+ yards passing, Sanders 1 TD, AJB 6+ recs (+600 on Bovada)

We feel pretty good about a lot of these. Feel free to dabble & sprinkle at your own risk! Good luck! 

 @EricVanekNFL has a few Dynasty Buys this Week.

So this week, I want to talk about a few dynasty buys that I am seeing out there that I think you can get for cheap. Looking right now currently at KTC rankings that a lot of the community uses, let’s take a look at a few buys right now.

RB22 right now is Dalvin Cook. This one is a little crazy, with Tyler Allgeier, Miles Sanders, and Rachaad White all AHEAD of Dalvin on the rankings. Dalvin is still a workhorse, yes a little older than these guys, but he’s still in a very good top-10 offense. If I can get Dalvin for one of those guys I mentioned above for an even swap (which I doubt you could do) and even add a draft pick to one of those guys to get Dalvin, I would do that all day.

RB27 is Alvin Kamara. Same thing with Dalvin with Kamara, all of those guys I mentioned above him also include James Cook, A.J. Dillon as well. Kamara is still a very good player, and if the rumors are true of Derek Carr heading to New Orleans, Carr will check down and use Kamara well. I think Kamara will be an extreme value this year, and now is the time to go and get him.

The last one for me is WR49 JuJu Smith-Schuster. Who are the guys above Juju currently? Alec Pierce, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and some others. I couldn’t believe Juju was this far down. Yes, he’s going to be a free agent again this year, but I think he fits in well with Kansas City this year. If Juju re-signs with Kansas City, I think his value will go way up, so if I can get him now before then. Sign me up, and give me some more Juju attached to Patrick Mahomes please!

Go out and get a few of these players, let us know in the trade channel if you make some trades for these guys! 

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