Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

Click on the link below to view This Week's Wake-Up episode/Prop bet videos and more!👇

Finding ways to be unique in an Underdog draft can give you the edge in separating yourself from the competition. The deeper I get in a draft, the less the ADP matters to me. Targeting the players with an ADP of 216 suggests a much smaller sample will be in the tournament. Build a strong roster and be willing to reach on players with low total contest exposure using your last pick or two. When you draft anyone this late, the risk and expectations are low anyway. Why waste them on people everyone else in the tournament has maximum exposure to? You never know when someone like Demario Douglas comes out of nowhere to provide a spike week that can make a difference.

Another preview of one of the many tools coming to the Destination Devy Website in the near future. A few weeks ago, I teased the NCAA Radar Chart Comparison App, and now, after a couple of weeks of development, we have the NFL Radar Chart Comparison App.

As you can see above, we have created an app that allows you to compare up to three players at a time with seasonal data. As of right now, we only have data back to 2018, but more will be introduced as time goes on. You can compare Justin Jefferson’s historic rookie year to Cooper Kupp’s magnificent 2021 season and Ja’Marr Chase’s 2021 season all at the same time with this tool.

This application and many more will be headed your way soon, once the Destination Devy website officially launches!

UNDERDOG FANTASY

Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Continue to brace yourselves, sports fans. Training camp has brought us a few more injuries this past week. They certainly won’t be the last. The natural tendency is to panic and be driven by your emotions towards “that player is risky” or “we need to fade that player now” any time these injuries occur, but largely those moves are overthinking or over-exaggerating the true risk involved. I’m here to calm you down.

Cooper Kupp has been the talk of the week after he pulled up running a route in the end zone and walked off of the field with trainers. The crazy takes began immediately, with some even suggesting that sometimes these walk-off injuries can still cost the player six months. The panic button was pressed. Then we found out he suffered a hamstring strain (nailed it) that will keep him out for a few weeks. Given his age, his risk does increase a little bit for a reinjury in-season, but I think it’s important to view it this way: Player X has a 26% risk of reinjury upon returning to play (which reduces as the weeks go on without a reinjury). Some would tell you that 26% is a lot of risk. So here, here’s a coin. If you flip it and land on tails, you lose $20. If you flip it and it lands on heads, you win $500. Here’s the catch: that coin is 4-sided, with three of the sides being heads. Are you not going to flip the coin because of the risk of losing $20 despite the chance to win bigger being 3x as much? Stop fading Cooper Kupp. It’s August 4^th. He’ll be fine.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

When WoRP was first introduced to me I thought it was a very interesting topic. Full credit goes to Eric Vanek and Scott Connor on an America’s Game episode. When I dove into it, I was overwhelmed by the numbers. I’m not a data guy. I’m sure most of you can relate. While it sounded interesting it never grabbed ahold of me. It didn’t captivate me. Even when my guy Koopa worked his tail off to make league-specific spreadsheets, I again was not drawn in. I spent more time making excuses with this version of them that was basically “take lock.” We in the community do this often. We all like to believe that we are open to new ideas, change, or differences of opinion. We usually aren’t.

It took persistence from some of the closest people to me in the space to finally open my eyes. That and the ridiculously dope tool that was built that made league-specific WoRP graphs available at the click of a button. Once equipped with this ability, the epiphanies started rolling in. TEs? Junk outside of Kelce in 95% of formats. ½ PPR settings? RB’s dead-locked with WRs from top to bottom. These little nuggets and the ability to look at multiple years of past data sets made some things very clear to me. Dynasty leagues that I play in are very vulnerable to exploitation. If I can fine-tune the process down to some very glaring trends that are MY league specific, I can abuse the hell out of my unsuspecting leaguemates.

It’s not just WoRP, but an overall lesson in life. New ideas, new opinions, and new processes shouldn’t be dismissed so easily. In the terms of Dynasty Football, me being dismissive cost me the opportunity of taking more of my league mates’ money. And isn’t that the ultimate goal?

-McNutted

The Houston Texans have ushered in a new era with the hiring of head coach Demeco Ryans from the 49ers & drafting QB C.J. Stroud at No. 2 overall. There have been recent reports that suggest Houston will be relatively run-heavy, which makes sense given the investment they’ve made in the offensive line (2nd most expensive line in the NFL) & at QB. But who is the guy you want in this offense for fantasy football? The answer is, without question, Dameon Pierce. Pierce was pretty solid last season (RB21 in ppg), given the less-than-stellar circumstances surrounding the Texans offense. Here is a glimpse as to how bad the environment was:

• 2nd lowest TDs scored

• 3rd worst red zone TD rate

• Worst EPA/play on 3rd down

• 31st in total DVOA

• Last in yards per play

It was as bad as it gets. But as I mentioned, Pierce was the lone bright spot in that offense & the environment should be much improved in Year 2. An upgrade at QB, WR John Metchie taking the field (2nd round pick; Houston traded up for him in the 2022 draft) & the offensive line they invested in. Pierce’s volume & efficiency in 2022 led to him having some very usable weeks. A few of his metrics:

• 20+ opportunities in 9 of 11 healthy games (17 ppg in those games)

• 9th in PFF rush grade

• 9th in YAC/attempt

• 5th most missed tackles forced per touch

• 3.2 yards after contact per attempt (15th out of 67 qualifying RBs with at least 50 carries)

While many can point to the Texans’ signing of Devin Singletary as a cap on Pierce’s ceiling, we are not worried since the signing was moreso to provide depth & a veteran presence. Singletary may take some 3rd downs, but that won’t stop Pierce from absolutely smashing his Underdog ADP of RB22 (70th overall). One of the best picks in the middle rounds. It’s not crazy to suggest that Dameon Pierce is actually being undervalued.

Running backs have had it rough this off-season. We’ve seen big names forced to renegotiate their contracts or be cut because they refuse. The guys we think deserve to be paid are essentially stuck on one-year deals with no sign of job security in sight. To top it off, you have one of the best young RBs in Jonathan Taylor, along with his agent, having a public battle with the Colts owner Jim Irsay just trying to get a contract extension. The NFL has told us all we need to know… They simply do not value the running back position. I started to think that maybe this is an overreaction… But, is it? Let’s take a look at this from both an NFL and a fantasy perspective.

Just three short years ago, we had the height of running backs. CMC was coming off that monster year where he went for 1300 on the ground with 116 catches and another 1000 yards in the receiving game, and 19 total TDs. That off-season, he received his four-year/ $64 million dollar extension. That same year, despite being banged up a majority of the season, Alvin Kamara had another successful campaign and received his 5-year/ $75 million dollar deal. Oh the good ole days when running backs would get paid! Not only were RBs doing well in the NFL, but they were all the rage in fantasy. I remember, in Superflex startup drafts, seeing Jonathan Taylor go 4th overall. We used to have CMC trades for 3 and 4 1st round draft picks! Today… That would be an insane price for any running back. Shoot, it’s a rarity to get two 1sts for the best ones at the position today.

What gives? Well, maybe, the NFL used to value running backs. They were showing us that those players and the production they were putting up is important to the team. So, in turn, the fantasy football community followed suit. If a player is a high-end producer and has long-term job security, then we value them to the highest degree. But now, the NFL would rather give RBs these shorter-term and lower-dollar deals even though the production is still there for most of these guys. We do understand it’s a business, and, if a team can get similar production for a fraction of the cost, then why not at least entertain that option? So in fantasy, the trend is heading the same way. We see a player up for a contract, or with low draft capital, and start to devalue them just because we are concerned about their long-term future, if they will be replaced in the draft, or if have the ability to stay healthy. This part is the overreaction. This is where fantasy managers take it too far.

Health is something that can’t truly be predicted or controlled. But people have been acting like some of these guys without long-term deals won’t play, and that is NOT the case. There might be some drama, but they will play football this year, and they will eventually receive some sort of a contract keeping them on the field for multiple years. So, if you are trying to move off one of Jacobs, Saquan, JT, etc., now is not the time. Be patient. Fantasy points heal all wounds. Once these guys are back on the field and putting up RB1 numbers, that’s when you look to sell. Just don’t get that 2020 greed and try for three 1sts.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? The Side with Pitts or the Side with Ridley?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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