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  • ⛽️🔥 I got a fever...with one prescription : More Rookie Drafts

⛽️🔥 I got a fever...with one prescription : More Rookie Drafts

Gibbs Analytic Profile, Trade of the week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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“With the 12th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft…the Detroit Lions select…Jahmyr Gibbs.”

The pick that shocked the NFL world. Did the Lions reach for a running back? Maybe. Should we care if they reached for fantasy football teams? Absolutely not. Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of my favorite prospects to follow, and I am overly excited for his Round 1 NFL Draft capital, and I’ll tell you why.

Analytically, there are two main reasons that this draft capital has vaulted Gibbs into my dynasty RB3. First, he has launched himself into my Diamond Tier for running backs. My list of Diamond Tier (Tier 1 by my analytical model) RBs going back to 2014 is very small. There have been 201 RBs drafted since 2014, and only 7 of them have found themselves in my Diamond Tier when it is all said and done. They are: Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and the two newcomers in, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. This list is SPECIAL. Of the five that have played three full seasons, they have averaged 19.9 PPR fantasy points per game. My Platinum Tier (Tier 2) averages about 15.1 PPG, and then my Gold Tier (Tier 3) averages 11.0 PPG. As you can see, there is a fast drop-off, and those in the Diamond Tier are special.

Second, look at this comparison…

What more needs to be said? Well, probably a lot, but the point is Gibbs is right up there with A LOT of metrics, especially in the past-catching areas, with Christian McCaffrey. Do I expect CMC-type numbers for Gibbs’ career? No, probably not. Can I envision Gibbs being 90% of what CMC has been thus far in his career? Absolutely. The Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs to be an offensive weapon, and it has already been reported that he will see significant time in the slot. Good luck trying to cover that.

I am trying to acquire Jahmyr Gibbs in as many leagues as possible, and you should too.

Rookie fever is in the air as even the most dormant of home leagues have come alive surrounding the buzz of the NFL Draft. Many of us have been grinding the ins and outs of this 2023 rookie class all year, but for some, they are just now tapping in, so use this to your advantage. Get your line in the water now and use these rookie picks as bait to catch the fish in your league hungry for youth. Many dynasty managers overvalue youth, so this is the part of the dynasty cycle where those same people are more willing to part with proven production.

Sometimes you just can’t get a deal done and have to make the pick.

Identifying your personal tier breaks within the class, round by round, will give you the edge on when and where to make pivots. Understand your league scoring and come to grips that drafting for need is often suboptimal vs. drafting for value. If you end up with a hoard of assets that are optimal to your league scoring, you can always make a trade for proven production to fill your team's needs later. Trust the process and challenge yourself to make the most of your rookie drafts. They only come once a year.


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So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Injury Profile: Tyjae Spears, RB TEN

Spears reportedly “has no ACL” in his knee after having two surgeries to address the issue (2015 and 2020). While it is technically possible to play without an ACL (Hines Ward reportedly played his entire career without an ACL in his left knee), if you have enough dynamic stability from your muscles, it is very rare and will likely lead to a very short career in the NFL. It’s such a rare occurrence, granted the ACL provides proprioception in the knee as well as key static stability, but if his quadriceps and hamstrings are strong enough, it could be allowing him to cut and sprint without issue.

A recent post by Dr. David Chao discussed how playing without an ACL is possible in his situation, considering he has grade four full-thickness cartilage loss (click on the link to see a picture describing this). This essentially means that he has no cartilage left in his knee, exposing subchondral bone and leaving him at significant risk for early-onset osteoarthritis. Typically, when we see these scenarios, the best way to describe it is that his knee is on a trajectory to be a candidate for a Total Knee Replacement by age 40-45 (which is more common around age 65-70). The risk is very high for him having a “Todd Gurley knee” scenario play out, and the likelihood is high that he only lasts 2-3 years in the league. Some people may think, hey, why would I not draft Spears for 2-4 years, isn’t that why we draft running backs anyways? My question would be, what happens to Spears when he suffers a soft tissue injury, such as a hamstring strain? Will he continue to maintain stability in his non-existent ACL knee? It’s simply not a gamble that I’m willing to take at the cost of an early to mid-2nd-round rookie pick. If he falls to the third and is surrounded by players like Chase Brown, Tank Dell, or whoever else, why not gamble on him, lasting 3-4 years in the NFL? At that cost, I’m in for the short term.

Unfortunately, he’s often going much higher than that. I would rather gamble on Tank Bigsby, Roschon Johnson, Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Jalin Hyatt, Rashee Rice, Marvin Mims, and Jonathan Mingo in that mid/late 2nd-early 3rd range. Good luck.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

The NFL Draft was not kind to dynasty drafters that were hoping for a deep class. While Jahmyr Gibbs got incredibly high draft capital and a great landing spot, as well as Bijan Robinson, the rest of the running backs in this class are nowhere near as certain for others.

Devon Achane was one of the running backs who landed in a great landing spot and also got the draft capital we were hoping for, as he was drafted 83rd overall and in the 3rd round. However, only weighing in at 188 pounds, many still worry about the workload he will actually be given in addition to what his body can handle. Ultimately, Achane has risen up the boards considerably (rightfully so) as he is going towards the end of round 1 fairly often.

Zach Charbonnet was drafted as the 3rd running back off the board in the 2023 NFL draft class, as the Seattle Seahawks took him with the 52nd overall pick. Many do not like this landing spot, and now he has been falling down the boards in dynasty rookie drafts. While I understand that it is not likely the landing spot and giving him a slight arrow down, I want to caution those that want to fade him and suggest thinking twice before letting him fall too far. This is a running back who has a profile that we really like and was THE ONLY running back in this class that was drafted in the 2nd round. If you want to use landing spot as a tiebreaker and a slight arrow down, that makes complete sense, but do not allow the landing spot to wildly shift your view of a player who has literally checked every box outside of landing on a team that has Kenneth Walker III.

Gene and Ike jumped on the mic this week to discuss their takes on all things NFL Draft, along with the opening of BBMIV.

What Trends did they notice in early ADP on Underdog, and what major takeaways did they have from the draft? Check out Off the Line and find out!

In this week's article, I want to focus on those Round 3 and 4 rookie draft picks that are currently going on. Who are some of the guys to target in those spots?

So at QB, this is usually not the spot I want to be digging at. Some of the ones I am willing to dig at, though, this late, especially in Round 4 or later, mostly depend on your own QBs. Do you have Derek Carr? Deshaun Watson? Jimmy Garoppolo? Then I want to be targeting Jake Haener, Aidan O’Connell, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson on those teams that have these guys who could legit be the team's backup QB in Week 1 of the season. Haener will probably have to sit one full year behind Carr and Jameis, but Aidan should step in right into a backup role, and so should DTR, with only Josh Dobbs ahead of him.

Now the RB spot, there are legit so many different RBs here you can consider, and I am considering ALL of them, to be frank. Here are some of my favorites in this range of drafts I am hammering. Usually, this late in your rookie drafts, you’ll want to target guys like Eric Gray, the most likely backup to Saquon this year with Breida. Evan Hull is a good pass-catching weapon I think the Colts will use quite a bit. Zach Evans with the Rams, we’ve seen how the Rams fell out of favor with Akers last year. Could it happen again? Plus, Evans is just a better prospect than Kyren Williams too. Deuce Vaughn just feels like he’s going to play in this league for a while, he is a hard worker, and he should stick with Dallas. I want a few shares of him. Dewayne McBride with Minnesota, Chris Rodriguez with Washington. Give me shots at all these types.

As you know, Scott and I have talked at length about roster clogger WRs. Taking a bunch of rookie WRs in Rounds 3,4,5 in your rookies draft is a major bet to become Roster Clogger City, but there are a few I don’t mind taking a shot on here and there on my teams. In round three, I like guys like Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Jalin Hyatt, and Marvin Mims. I think these guys are all solid bets to have a role on their teams sooner rather than later. Some round 4 and 5 type guys that I don’t mind taking a shot on here and there as well include… Michael Wilson in Arizona, Charlie Jones in Cincinnati, Tyler Scott in Chicago, and Puka Nacua with the LA Rams. You can add Kayshon Boutte to this list, but Boutte just feels like a pick that’s not going to live up to the hype.

Finally, at the TE spot, in TE Premium leagues, this is who I want to target. This year it seems like Round 2 is the TE-heavy spot after Kincaid and Mayer go off the board. LaPorta and the rest of the bunch get hammered in Round 2. So in rounds 3 to 5, here are a few I’m still looking to grab: TE Brenton Strange, a second-round pick of Jaguars, Josh Whyle in Tennessee, Will Mallory with the Giants, Davis Allen with the Rams, and Zack Kuntz later on who went to the Jets in Round 7.

Was the 2023 NFL Draft a good class?

We discussed this question post-NFL Draft

Will Houston struggle with Stroud?

What do we do with these RB/WR landing spots?

Other concerns?

Check out our Pod this week as we dove into these questions and so much more.

Dynasty Trade of the week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Godwin or the package of picks and Adam Theilen ?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7, click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day, get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues.

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