⛽️🔥 Jordan Addison or Jaylen Reed? Week 1 CFB & TNF Props

College TE Metrics, Roster moves post 53 man cuts and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!


Thursday Night Football NFL Week 1 Props targets courtesy of MySpari.Com

The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams have a glorious 52.5 points Vegas total for the opening night of the NFL season. We are likely due to see some efficient scoring from both offenses and if that does come to fruition, look no further than Cooper Kupp.

The MySpari model projects Kupp to have 0.8 touchdowns, which is the highest projection in Week 1 of the NFL season based on 10,000 simulations of every single game. Touchdown projections are difficult to pinpoint, but in this case, I agree with the model.

Sean McVay has repeatedly mentioned his desire to protect his backfield this season and not overuse them. I expect Cooper Kupp to be the centerpiece of this offense once again, and our model results pegged him for 11.2 targets, 8 receptions, and 96.9 receiving yards. If the Rams are scoring to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills' offense, Kupp will be in a prime position to benefit.

Here are some DraftKings Sportsbook options for a little opening night sprinkle:

Cooper Kupp ANYTIME TD 1st Q +550

Cooper Kupp ANYTIME TD 1st H +230

Cooper Kupp TD SCORER -140

You can grab all of our picks and props via our Patreon, where members are +238.3 units in 2022 so far! As a member of Destination Devy, you get a discount for September. Shoot Mitch a DM on Twitter or on Discord!

Ray's Week 1 College Football picks

After an abbreviated Week Zero last week, we have a full slate of matchups to attack. I give out two picks for the Thursday evening matchups in Konata Mumpfield and Lew Nichols (Editor Note: Lew Nichols went Over his fantasy points ✅ and Konata Mumpfield pushed on his reception total 🅿).

I also have two Saturday selections as well in Two big-time matchups. The first matchup is between Oregon and reigning national champions Georgia. The other is between Notre Dame and Ohio State. Both games have the potential to be offensive explosions, but Ray highlights two key members who he thinks may show out in these high-stakes matchups early in the season. Click the button 👇 to tail on these picks for Saturday.

If you love our show and want to support everything we do for you and have fun placing bets with us, head on to PrizePicks. PrizePicks offers a 100% Deposit Match for our people, up to $100. Click the button above to take you right there to sign up to get in on the action below!

This week, we will look at one of the top performing college football wide receivers from 2021 - Josh Downs. The 2023 eligible WR finished near the top of all the most predictive metrics in 2021.

  • Yards per Team Pass Attempt: 3.49

  • Yards per Routes Run: 2.80

  • Dominator Rating: 35.5%

  • Weighted Dominator Rating: 38.3%

However, Downs is entering 2022 with a new QB, Redshirt Freshman Drake Maye. Maye was a 4-star prospect (9th overall QB) in the 2021 recruiting class, so he isn’t some slouch. But will the departure of Sam Howell impact Josh Downs’ draft stock? Well, after Week 0 vs. Florida A&M, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Downs finished with nine receptions on 12 targets (32.4% target share), 78 yards, and two touchdowns. Assuming health, the UNC WR should finish near the top of all statistics once again, as he is clearly UNC’s #1 target. The emergence of sophomore TE Bryson Nesbit may eat a bit, but Downs will still get his.

Right now, Downs is around the WR4/5 range in the 2023 NFL Draft Class and, unfortunately, I’m not sure how much higher it can go. He won’t supplant Kayshon Boutte or Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison should put up video game numbers at USC. Additionally, his stature (5’ 10”, 175lbs) will likely limit him to a slot role in the NFL.

This is just one SMALL part of the work that goes into JB's analytic database. To gain access to these types of charts and much more subscribe at the All-American level tier below!

When I look at Jordan Addison (WR, USC) and Jayden Reed (WR, Michigan State), I see two prospects with similar capability to command their offense, yet a stark difference in ADP through our devy mocks this summer.

Jordan Addison - WR4 - ADP 20.2

Jayden Reed - WR27 - ADP 58.7

Some metrics I like to look at that indicate how well a prospect can command their offense are dominator rating, market share for receptions and receiving yards, yards per team pass attempt, and targets per route run—data courtesy of the Destination Devy database.

Addison and Reed have both produced in their respective offenses, but if I can have a multi-round discount on Reed I am definitely considering it. My only concern analytically with the Spartan wideout is him being a senior instead of an early declaration but aside from that, he checks all the boxes for me. Jayden Reed is someone I am keeping a close eye on this fall.

When I look at the devy ADP I can’t help but feel as a community we are too high on some of these tight-end prospects. The tight end position is notorious for taking many years to grow into at the NFL level and holding these prospects can effectively burn up roster spots that would otherwise be used on productive talents. Quentin Johnston (ADP 27.3) and Jermaine Burton (ADP 33.9) both project to be first-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft which would lead to immediate fantasy opportunities. Michael Mayer (ADP 13.1), Brock Bowers (ADP 22.7), and Arik Gilbert (ADP 30.3) are the top tight ends in our devy ADP and are routinely selected over both wideouts. When push comes to shove, there’s no way I could spend early capital on the tight end position with so many running backs and wide receivers available.

We are only seven days away from the first game of the 2022 season and ten days away from the majority of our players playing. Here are some critical injury updates as we near our first start-sit questions:

JK Dobbins continues to be sensitive when critiquing his movement, with his latest social media presence calling out claims that he is limping after a drill. If I am nit-picking the video, he does appear to limp after the quad-burning exercise as he pivots and walks away. If Dobbins is active for week one, I think he needs to remain on your bench until he shows positive production. Despite his coaches stating he has been improving, he likely sees limited volume early in-season.

Much has been made about Najee Harris’s recent Lisfranc injury, but I do think it is being overblown by the majority of injury analysts. Should we note it? Yes. Should we fade him currently? No. His injury occurred on August 1st after being stepped on, and he returned within four weeks to play prolonged in a meaningless preseason game (Steelers must not be concerned) looking explosive, hurdling and cutting off of his left foot without any noticeable deficits during and after the movements. People hear Lisfranc and freak out – I think we have little to be concerned about moving into week one.

Miles Sanders has returned to practice this week, having missed practice due to a hamstring strain suffered roughly around August 14th. Missing 2.5 weeks is not overly concerning for a soft tissue strain in general; however, considering Sanders has a long history of soft tissue and knee injuries as well as being only ten days away from season start, we may not be able to trust him for fantasy production for week one. Keep a close eye on his status as reinjury risk is higher within the first week of returning from a soft tissue injury, but hopefully, he can ramp up his workload over the next week without issue and be full-go versus the Lions.

There is a legitimate concern that Cardinals’ Zach Ertz (calf) and Rondale Moore (undisclosed) may miss week one, as their recoveries are being deemed “close calls”. At this stage, have backup plans ready to play if you were going to start either of them, as their week one production may not be trusted.

We received great news on Brian Robinson and saw him return to the team facility on crutches and in good spirits. Early word is that he may have a chance at playing after his four-week absence after being placed on the NFI list, but I would plan on a mid-season return for now. Very happy to see him doing well. Also, go watch this.

For injury updates throughout the week, go follow me @jmthrivept.


This trade is brought to you by the good people of DD in our exclusive trade channel where we only post and discuss dynasty trades. The basics here are 12-Team Dynasty Superflex Tight End Premium.

Oh boy! This deal got a lot of discussion in the discord. Let me be frank, NO WAY! I’ll take the Bateman side a billion times out of a billion. Here’s why. Even if I put on my classy rose-colored fat guy Elvis glasses and say that Doubs and Likely are worth future 2nds, the deal breaks down to Pickens and two 2nds for Bateman. MAYBE. Just maybe I could put aside my Bateman love and pull the trigger in a deep lineup or bestball league. If you don’t do the mental gymnastics and make the “camp hype” leap to 2nds, there is no damn way I’m letting Shoddy B go for this little.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7 click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues.

Beyond the Mic🎙

@IowaMichael Gives us some wise counsel on handcuffing your studs.

Handcuffing. Did that feel as dirty to read for you as it was for me to type? It should. I can possibly see it in lineup leagues, but do a little research on it. There are some incredibly smart people who’ve come to the conclusion it’s bad. In bestball, the simple answer is no. As a whole, think of it this way. Why bet against yourself? If you have the conviction to take an RB early, you expect them to play up to the price tag you paid. Coming back later and paying the market price for the handcuff is almost like admitting you’re scared. If I learned one thing at the Expo *wink* Christy’s, it’s that scared money don’t make no money. Thanks, Nathasha and YG.

You can check out all the content that the 4D Guys dropped this past week ⬇️

@FantasyGenes & @Ike N. Give us some redraft drafting advice ahead of week One

30-sec clock, 12 teams, PPR, TE premium, PPC, redraft league……No better way to practice what you preach than by doing a live home draft. Since Ike is loaded with drafts, that’s what we did.

All summer we’ve talked about team situations, sleepers, must-haves, avoids, player movement, rankings, and now finally we get a chance to apply the education to an actual draft.

All these types of discussions do not matter if you don't do the basic stuff like reviewing the scoring settings, knowing the time to make a pick, starting lineup, and bench spots.

In the particular draft, Ike participated in; there were quite a few interesting team builds throughout - hero RB, WR x4, RBx3, balanced, etc. The critical thing to remember is not to panic! The draft you planned in your head will often deviate from reality due to the unpredictable nature of your league mates' strategies. Keep your composure! Take a look below at the draft results - Ike was at the 1.12:

 @EricVanekNFL is targeting some skill guys after the cutdown to 53 players.

The rosters have been cut; the 53-man rosters have been set! We are six days away from the NFL regular season, the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams kicking us off in LA to start the season. Love it! We’re all excited, but there’s still some work you can be doing on your rosters. This week I want to give you three players you should consider picking up on your rosters who made the team’s 53-man rosters. These are going to be mainly for DEEP dynasty leagues. If you’re rostering 35+ players on your roster, you need to be considering picking up these players.

I will give you one guy at each position this week, and I will start at the RB position with Dallas Cowboys' #3 back, Rico Dowdle. Rico has been around a few years, last year, a hip injury ended his season, and he didn't get to play. Dowdle, however, has come back healthy and has looked damn good so far this pre-season. Dowdle runs with power and enough burst to get the job done. If something happens to Zeke or Pollard, Dowdle can quickly jump in and get some work. He can catch the ball as well. He is just one injury away from getting touches on one of the top 10 offenses in the NFL.

Who is the Wide Receiver I am targeting? Tim Jones from the Jacksonville Jaguars! If you watched anything from the Jaguars this pre-season or looked at the box scores, you should know about Tim Jones. In the four games (Remember they played in the Hall of Fame game), Tim Jones got 19 targets; he caught 14 for 219 yards. I really liked what I saw from Jones, and so did the Jaguars with keeping this young man. Shenault got shipped out in a trade; all he has in front of him is the starters in Kirk, Z.Jones, and Marvin Jones. I think Jones, if he continues to work hard and continues to impress, he can sneak his way in there and make an impact.

Now for the tight end, this is mainly for leagues who have to start two tight ends, or your TE Premium is 1.75 per catch or higher for Tight Ends. In your standard PPR league, or 1.5 premium league, I don't think this guy is worth rostering, but the man I am talking about is TE Tanner Hudson, now of the New York Giants. Hudson has bounced around from Tampa Bay the last couple of seasons, where he got buried behind Gronk, OJ Howard, and Cameron Brate. He went to San Francisco this offseason, and I thought he looked pretty good again with them but ended up getting waived by the 49ers. Then, the New York Giants picked him up and kept him, and now he is the number 2 Tight End on the New York Giants. The only player in front of him is a rookie in Daniel Bellinger, who has looked good at times but is still a rookie TE in the NFL. Hudson has a golden opportunity to be the pass-catching TE for the Giants. He is a guy I want to be picking up and stashing and seeing what happens!

Podcasts This Week

Free-mium ⛽️🔥

The All Gas Newsletter is here to provide you with nothing but premium content for FREE in an easily digestible format to showcase the best of what we have going on throughout the week. Our staff does a tremendous job of making sure this content comes to you weekly, so be sure to give them a follow if you like their stuff to show your support for their work.