⛽️🔥 Ken Walker film study/The Case for Joe Mixon

2023 QB4 is who?/Injury reports and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy! 

Fast Five Facts leading into Week Six

All Stats Are Courtesy of The 33rd Team's Edge 

1.) Josh Allen is the ONLY starting QB with a positive EPA when in a pressure situation.

2.) Saquon Barkley leads the league in missed tackles from the RB position with 12.

3.)Mark Andrews is the only TE who is commanding north of a 30% Target per route run percentage. 

4.)Gabe Davis has 28.1 Yards per reception on only 11 catches. He is a home run hitter to a T.

5.) The Seattle Seahawks allow 8.9 Yards per pass attempt. That is the highest in the NFL.


Week 6 NFL Prop bet courtesy of MySpari.Com

Cooper Kupp o90.5 REC YDS -115 DK Sportsbook

Another week, Another Kupp receiving prop.

Not much analysis is needed here. Cooper has hit the over in 23 of the last 26 games at this yardage line.

One issue Stafford has had this season is pressure. The Panthers have the 7th lowest pressure rate in the NFL and allow a league average 218.4 passing yards per game. Kupp should continue to FEAST as this team cannot run the football this season.

Let’s get paid!

Week 7 College Football Pick 

Last week's prop was another dud. Anthony Grant struggled against the Rutgers Defense in what should've been a smash spot. But, we're back with another smash opportunity.

This week the play of the week is Max Duggan Over 28 Fantasy Score.

Duggan has gone over this fantasy score prop in three of his last four games. The Oklahoma State defense is as stingy as in years past allowing over 300 passing yards a game, and over 115 on the ground. And finally, the game has an over/under of 68.5. There will be points, and Duggan will be be a main reason for the Horned Frogs' success. 

 Click the button below and tail the Max Duggan play! Best of Luck

If you love our show and want to support everything we do for you and have fun placing bets with us, head on to PrizePicks. PrizePicks offers a 100% Deposit Match for our people, up to $100. Click the button above to take you right there to sign up to get in on the action below! 

The Texas Longhorns fan in me has held off this long, but it’s time. No, we won’t be talking about 2023 RB1 Bijan Robinson, but a player that could be the 1.01 in 2024 Rookie Drafts - QB Quinn Ewers. After a 49-0 beatdown against rival Oklahoma in which Ewers threw for 289 yards and 4 TDs, the quarterback deserves his time in our newsletter.

Ewers reclassified into the 2021 recruiting class and instantly became the QB1 of the class, overtaking Caleb Williams,  as he bolstered one of three perfect 247 recruiting rankings (tied with Vince Young and Arch Manning). Ewers went to Ohio State his first year before transferring to Texas.

Although Ewers has only played in three games thus far, he has looked extremely impressive. He had a modest 225 yards and 2 TDs against UL-Monroe in his first game in almost two full years. He then looked incredible (9 of 11, 134 yards) against Alabama before leaving in the second quarter due to injury. He then had the previously mentioned line (289 yards and 4 TDs) against Oklahoma. 

Ewers is already the QB2 in the 2024 class while only playing 2.5 games. The Texas offense will only keep moving forward as fellow 2024 classmates WR Xavier Worthy, and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders should be key targets for Ewers throughout 2022 and 2023. The aforementioned Bijan Robinson will depart for the 2023 NFL Draft after this year, but 4-Star RB Jaydon Blue should step into the lead RB role in 2023.

This is just one SMALL part of the work that goes into JB's analytic database. To gain access to these types of charts and much more subscribe at the All-American level tier below! 

When it comes to the 2023 quarterbacks, most people are confident CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, and Will Levis will receive first-round draft capital. The conversation for QB4 is where things get interesting with this class, and for me, Hendon Hooker is someone I have had my eye on to rise and fill this void. Over the next four weeks, Tennessee will be put to the test, facing stiff competition with Alabama, Kentucky, and Georgia. It will be interesting to see how Hooker performs during this stretch and if he can elevate his draft stock. Presently in our October ADP, he is at 19.5, which is good for QB6 and a significant increase from being a back-end third-round selection in most of our prior mocks. Many eyes will be on Hooker over the coming weeks, and if he can continue to ball out the way he has against some of these better teams, I expect him to be in the conversation for day one draft capital.

On the other hand, it feels less and less likely that Anthony Richardson will hang onto the hype he once had within this community.  The arrow has been pointing down on Richardson this month as he falls seven spots to an ADP of 14.  Richardson looks like he still needs time to develop and may even be advised to go back for another year in college to improve his skills and draft projection.  He has a ton of upside with his physical tools to become a Konami threat for fantasy, but the community is starting to pump the brakes a little on the Florida Gators gunslinger.

Injuries keep piling up – hope you’re prepared with plenty depth and ability to navigate bye weeks. Some good news so far, yet it always accompanies bad news. Let’s dive in.

Jonathan Taylor (ankle) has returned to practice and early reports indicate he is likely to play this week a welcomed return. Saquon Barkley (shoulder/AC) remains limited however is expected to play. James Conner (ribs) on the other hand is trending downwards, unable to practice, and likely out (hope you stashed Eno Benjamin). Melvin Gordon (neck/ribs) and Mike Boone (foot) were added to the injury report as limited participants, but both are expected to play. Raheem Mostert (knee) has been limited yet expected to play, but given his past history with knee injuries, let’s see if Miami changes the backfield snaps up a bit. As you all hopefully know by now, Damien Harris (hamstring) will be out for several weeks, ceding backfield duties to Rhamondre StevenSZN.Dak Prescott (thumb) has ramped up his passing reps, but I would expect him to be another one to two weeks out from returning (accuracy will be key for his return). Baker Mayfield (high ankle) is likely out for several weeks, so PJ Walker may get his first start (and against a Rams team that may be missing Aaron Donald due to a foot injury). Jameis Winston (back/ankle) remained limited, though I saw a report stating it will likely be Andy Dalton starting again this week.

Cooper Kupp (foot) was limited, but reports have already stated he is expected to be fine this week. Tee Higgins (ankle) has been spotted on the rehab field in practice two days in a row, and I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t suit up this week. Keenan Allen (hamstring) has returned to practice, but let’s see if he can stack multiple practices together without another reinjury. Rashod Bateman (foot) is likely dealing with a Lisfranc sprain and is set to miss his second game in a row. Michael Thomas (right toe) has yet to return to practice, putting his status for this week in doubt. Chris Olave (concussion) has made several positive progressions through the concussion protocol. Tyler Lockett (hamstring) was added to the injury report, and typically late week additions to the report lead to at least one game missed. Christian Watson (hamstring) is a non-participant, but you’re not starting him in fantasy right now, anyways. Kyle Pitts (hamstring) has returned to practice and is trending upward for playing this week. Dawson Knox (foot/hamstring) remains limited in practice but has a shot at playing. Dalton Schultz (knee) has been practicing, but playing will depend on pain levels and swelling after re-aggravating his PCL sprain. Darren Waller (hamstring) could not finish last week’s game, likely leading to a multi-week absence. Pat Freiermuth (concussion) will likely be out for a while, given he has suffered three concussions in a 12-month span.

There are many more updates, especially after full injury reports come out, so be sure to tune in to the Destination Devy Injury Pod that drops on Sunday morning before setting your lineups, and follow me @jmthrivept for live updates.

Beyond the Mic🎙

@Mcnutted tells us the hard truth we don't want to admit, but should really be considering.

"In season bestball contending teams are easy. You don’t even need to look at the team." 

Stop me if you have heard this nonsense before. I can honestly sit here and argue that contending bestball teams with deep rosters are some of the most work-intensive in-season teams you will have. This has nothing to do with trading. Don’t get it twisted. No matter the dynasty league type, we all should be active in the trade market. I’m talking about the bottoms of those rosters. The uglies under the bed that you’re scared to look for. I can stand here and be objective with myself; I have a problem. I fall in love with too many projects. Too many Minnesota Vikings longshots. Over the last two years, I’m pretty sure I had every share of Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Kene Nwangwu. I feel just like Lizzo with a new man on the Minnesota Vikings.

Truth is, though, these guys have been detrimental to contending bestball rosters. 99% of the time, they are absolute ZEROS. They don’t score or even come close to making your lineup. These spots should be churned weekly on waivers. Deon Jackson is available and might actually play significant snaps; great, pick him up. JT comes back, and Deon gets churned for Eric Saubert playing significant snaps for a bad Denver offense. The dance should continue like this all year. Always churning your zeros, looking for the next 1-2 weeks, darling, and trying to hit that single and just get on base for a week. Let’s hold hands and say it together. WE have a truther status problem.


 @FantasyGenes tells us why he is high on Joe Mixon.

Joe Mixon has been off to a slow start, even though he is getting all he can handle each week.  The elite opportunity share is not the problem; it's the so-called improved OL and lack of converting the touches into TDs.

I am here to tell you to be patient with Joe Mixon and if you are someone that believes in him, trade him.  Here are some peripherals for the RB15 currently:

  • 4th in Carries

  • 19th in Rushing yards

  • 1st in Total touches

  • 1st in Red Zone touches(only 1 td)

  • 3rd in Routes run

  • 3rd Route participation

  • 6th in Targets

  • 5th in Receptions

Per PFF expected fantasy points tool, Mixon has scored 40 fewer fantasy points than expected based on usage.  Also his rushing yards are over expected, currently he is at -1.47, which is 30th out of 31 RBs that have at least 50 rushes. 

Week 6 NO - 7th most rushing yards allowed per game, 26th in fantasy pts to RBs

Week 7 ATL - 9th most rushing yards allowed per game, 9th in fantasy pts to RBs

Week 8 CLE - 1st most rushing yards allowed per game, 2nd in fantasy pts to RBs

Week 9 CAR - 4th most rushing yards allowed per game, 5th in fantasy pts to RBs

I hope to see some regression back to mean with his upcoming schedule of games before the Week 10 bye and expect to see Joe Mixon back in the top 12!

 @EricVanekNFL gives us his best options in Week Six.

Week 6 is here, and that means bye weeks are here! If you followed this article last week, you probably did pretty well! Geno did well again, Breece Hall smashed, Robert Woods was so-so, and Logan Thomas got hurt late in the week during practice, so he didn’t play, unfortunately. This week though, we’re back to give you some more good picks for Week 6 that you can start!

I will be looking at FantasyPros ECR rankings to give you a look at guys outside the top 12 at QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, and top 12 at TE as some sleeper options to play this week.

At QB this week, I will go with ECR QB 13 of the week, one Matthew Stafford. Matt Stafford? Are you kidding me? He’s been absolute trash! Yes, all of that is true; his line has been absolutely awful too, BUT…. he gets just what the doctor ordered—a team who just fired his coach and a home match-up. I like Stafford just for the production. I think Cooper Kupp could turn out here, and not mention Tyler Higbee, who has been great too. I think Stafford is at home against a struggling team who should have the ball a lot with PJ Walker on the other sideline; I’m going to go with Stafford to have a bounce-back week.

The running back this week that I am eyeing up is Eno Benjamin of the Arizona Cardinals. Eno should be in line to get the lion's share of snaps this week with both James Conner and Darrel Williams DNPs Wednesday and Thursday so far. Eno should be the starter this weekend, I am thinking, and get his chance to shine. Eno can catch the ball a little bit, so a perfect guy for these bye weeks to throw into your lineup and watch him go. I can’tCan't ask for much more than someone who can start that may be on your waiver wire. 

The WR I like this week is WR40, according to ECR, and that is one Tyler Boyd of the Cincinnati Bengals. It is looking more and more like Tee Higgins will be out this week. Therefore Boyd should get all of those targets added to him this week. Boyd has always been a pretty solid player, and in a potentially high-scoring match-up this week, I like Boyd a lot. Ja'Marr Chase should get Marshon Lattimore (if Lattimore even plays, he left last week's game). If that happens, Boyd should have an easier match-up for himself and have a pretty solid PPR floor for you this week with the potential to splash into the end zone for you.

This week at Tight End, I am going deeeeeeeeep. Like really deep… TE40! That is Zach Gentry of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, this depends on if Pat Freiermuth plays or not; I am guessing he didn’t go after a bad concussion last week. If Pat does play, then this is null, and I’ll give you another name below… but if Pat Freiermuth is out, then I think you can fire up Zach Gentry. Pickett has been absolutely pounding the TE in his first two outings, and I don’t see it being any different this week. Gentry actually did good in PPR once Freiermuth left last week too. It might be a long shot, but I think this one could really pay off for you this week.

If Pat F does start, fire up TE13 on the week, Taysom Hill! Taysom is the ultimate boom-or-bust weapon at TE. He either gets you a 0 or 34 it seems like. He has a chance to score every single week. Get him in there if you’re weak at TE!

Podcasts This Week 

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Join the Destination Devy Squad

Alvin Kamara (ribs) has returned to practice, and the expectation is that he will be able to return to play this week. David Montgomery (ankle) is expected to practice and play this week, per source, but keep an eye on his practice status. Breece Hall (knee) has now been limited to two practices, although the staff has said he’s simply dealing with nicks and bruises so I would watch his status closely. Rashaad Penny (shoulder) has been limited, but the injury is not expected to keep him from playing this week. Brian Robinson has a decent chance to make his debut this week, a remarkable recovery from an awful situation this preseason.

Rashod Bateman (midfoot sprain) will likely miss one or two games, depending on the severity and ability to practice. Gabriel Davis (ankle) remains limited by his ankle injury, but as @BangedUpBills suggests, he may be a good buy low to production post-week seven byes. Tee Higgins (ankle) suffered a mild ankle sprain Thursday Night, but it is not expected to keep him from playing. Jahan Dotson (hamstring) is expected to miss at least one to two games, while Curtis Samuel (illness) continues to miss practices so keep an eye on the latter’s status for game day. Hunter Renfrow (concussion) was spotted participating in practice, and his return likely depends on his ability to practice without any symptoms. Jaylen Waddle (groin) has been able to practice, so I do believe this is more of a week-to-week maintenance plan by Miami to have him limited in certain practices leading up to game days. At some point, I’ll have to stop talking about Kadarius Toney (hamstring) since I’m only supposed to speak about fantasy-relevant players, but word is he got a limited practice on Wednesday and may have suffered another setback, as he was unable to practice on Thursday.

Of note, Kyle Pitts (hamstring) has been unable to practice, putting his status for week 5 in jeopardy so keep an eye on his status. David Njoku (knee) has been managing a knee sprain but continues to play, so anticipate him having rest days/DNP throughout the season until it is closer to 100%. Dawson Knox (hamstring) has now dealt with a foot, back, hip, and new hamstring injury this season across 4 weeks, so you may want to continue to find a pivot. TJ Hockenson (hip) has been managing hip discomfort for the last 2 weeks or so, so anticipate him playing again this week.

Beyond the Mic🎙

@ATM explains to us why staying attached to a player in a rebuild could be a bad process.

Four weeks of the season are in the books, and week 5 starts Thursday with the Broncos and Colts game. The game that was supposed to feature two young stud running backs viewed by many as potential league winners now is featuring Nyheim Hines versus Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. Yikes. We have already seen so much attrition in 4 weeks, and it is showing no signs of slowing down. On top of the fact that we have injuries piling up, you really need to keep in mind that bye weeks start next week. If you are a contending roster, take an intense look at your team and depth. Do you have three quarterbacks that you would feel comfortable starting? Could your team handle 3 to 4 injuries to the wide receiver and running back positions? If the answer to either of those questions is “no,” do you have liquid currency with rookie picks to help replace an injury blow?

When you ask those questions and look at your team through that lens, you might realize your strong contender is more fragile than you expected. The good news is you may be having this realization before the potential catastrophe has taken place. Let’s talk about how you can address this now.

Right now, if you have A.J. Brown on your team, you are feeling excellent about his play, his connection with Jalen Hurts, and how he has been scoring points for your fantasy team. This may make you hesitant to trade him, but what happens if A.J. Brown has an untimely injury for your team? Last year he missed four weeks (essentially 5 when you include him getting hurt early in week 3), he hit IR right during the fantasy playoffs, and he hasn’t played an entire season since 2019. Could he stay healthy? Absolutely he could, but what if you could protect yourself from this risk but also replicate his points in your lineup? Does this sound too good to be true? What if I told you it’s not? Insert the tier-down approach.

The tier-down approach is a great way to increase your depth and, if executed correctly, still leave your starting roster very strong. There are multiple ways to approach this, but I will give you an example using Dynasty Berry’s WoRP data and keeptradecut.com for trade values. A.J. Brown is dynasty WR3 on keeptradecut.com, and according to Berry’s 2022 WoRP spreadsheet, he is 9th at the receiver position at 1.40. One spot below A.J. Brown is Christian Kirk at 1.37. Keeptradecut.com has Christian Kirk as the WR26 using their crowdsourced data, and according to their trade calculator, A.J. Brown will net you Christian Kirk and a late 2023 1st. Based on what we have seen in the first four weeks of the season, Christian Kirk looks poised to be very close to A.J. Brown in points per game, and now you also have a 1st in your pocket to protect yourself from injuries to either Christian Kirk or another player on your team. The best-case scenario would be that you can avoid injuries for the remainder of the season. As then fantasy football playoffs approach, you can leverage that pick to strengthen your roster even further!

You may not get that exact deal done in your league, but that is the idea and there is a plethora of players and options to which you can apply the tier down approach.

When your league mates are playing chess, play 4D chess.


You can check out all the content that the 4D Guys dropped this past week ⬇️ 

 @FantasyGenes has some ideas on how to treat these early-season RB producers

Fantasy has had a funky start through the first 4 games.  We got players like Jared Goff and Clyde Edwards-Helaire sitting in the Top 5 in their particular positions.  I am here to talk about a player that is ranked RB23 currently and you should be looking to trade for.

Devin Singletary is an RB that you should target in your leagues. In the last two weeks, we have seen usage go up as the Bills have been dealing with injuries, playing more formidable opponents, and have been RB12. In week 4, we saw Singletary have a 79% route participation, play 87% of snaps, and have 55% of the rushing attempts. These numbers are in line with how he finished the last seven games of the 2021 season, including the playoff run, and we saw how well he played. Moss and Cook have not seen any inside the five carries, 2 mins offense, or long down and distance snaps. Also, Singletary is # 1 in routes ran for RBs at 99….opportunity to participate in the passing game is key for RBs(especially in PPR leagues).

Go to your leagues and get some Devin Singletary before everyone catches on!

 @EricVanekNFL gives us his best options in Week Five.

Week 5 is upon us and last week was not so good for this column but we’re going to rebound here this week and get us some great picks outside the top picks this week for you in Week 5.

I will be looking at FantasyPros ECR rankings to give you a look at guys outside the top 12 at QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, and top 12 at TE as some sleeper options to play this week.

At QB this week, I am going with the NFL record holder for the highest completion percentage through four weeks in NFL history. Everyone saw this coming, right? …..Right?.... No?.... Geno Smith! Geno has been what the Seahawks wanted him to be. An excellent game manager who isn’t turning the ball over. He’s making the right reads and throws now and has been good so far. This week he goes against the Saints DEF that just got beat up a little by Minnesota. I think Geno is in line for another solid game on the road, just like he did against Detroit last week. If I need a QB this week, why not go with Geno here, who can do a little bit on the ground for you? 

At the RB spot this weekend, I will take the easy route and go with RB25, according to ECR, Breece Hall. Breece has been steadily taking over that backfield week by week now. He’s running many routes, and I think this is when Breece takes a stranglehold on this backfield and posts some excellent fantasy numbers.I am looking forward to seeing what Breece can do in what could be a potentially high-scoring match against Miami this weekend.

This week at WR I am going to go to the old vet, Robert Woods of the Tennessee Titans. Washington has been getting torched in the air as of late and with Tennessee losing Burks for a few weeks I think Robert Woods should absolutely get force-fed here in a good situation. If I got Robert Woods I am going to easily fire him up in this matchup. If you have Woods and you’re not playing him this week then what's the point of having him? 

TE has been the position of yuck again this year, but I think this week I will go back to my pick last week, and that is TE Logan Thomas for Washington. He had an ok last week; he’s running many routes and should get the usage this week. Another significant factor here is that Jahan Dotson will also miss a few games. I think this should mean even more potential work for Logan here. Like him in this match-up against Tennessee after Indianapolis just scorched them with TEs last week. I love this play this week.

Good luck to everyone here in Week 5! 

Five Facts leading into Week 5 

(All stats courtesy of the 33rd Team Edge)

1.) Jalen Hurts is averaging 9.1 Yards per attempt. That's first in QBs who have played all season 

2.) Josh Jacobs leads running backs with 13 missed tackles. For context, that's .19 per rushing attempt.

3.) Davante Adams has a 55.3% Catch percentage on 47 targets. If this % holds, it would be his worst catch percentage since 2015.

4.) Will Dissly has 3 Touchdowns while only commanding a 9.3% target share in Seattle

5.) The San Fransisco 49ers allow 2.9 YPC. They are the only team currently allowing less than 3 yards per rush.

Podcasts This Week 

Free-mium ⛽️🔥

The All Gas Newsletter is here to provide you with nothing but premium content for FREE in an easily digestible format to showcase the best of what we have going on throughout the week. Our staff does a tremendous job of making sure this content comes to you weekly, so be sure to give them a follow if you like their stuff to show your support for their work.