⛽️🔥Is Marvin Harrison a Ja'Marr Chase like Prospect?

Weekly Winners Strategy, Trade of the week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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Underdog has launched the popular Weekly Winners contest with over three and a half million dollars in prizes to give away. At $15 an entry, it offers a cheaper alternative to BBM4 and a different draft dynamic to factor with less emphasis on challenging advance rate strategies. With Weekly Winners, your team will have a chance to win serious prize money any given week, whereas, with BBM4, you may go the whole season without winning a dime on your entry. We can use the separate ADP for each contest to gain insight into the differences in approach.

When I look at quarterback, it is clear people are willing to make sure they walk away with an elite option. I was surprised when I saw one go at the end of the first instead of the second in one of my first drafts. Justin Fields and Joe Burrow are being taken a full round earlier in Weekly Winners, with the majority of others pushed up at least a half-round. On the opposite end, rookie quarterbacks like CJ Stroud and Bryce Young are being faded even further as drafters punt a full round or more on these guys. Big-name free agents like DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook are also being taken a round later in this new format as drafters weigh the fear of a weekly zero as it stands or hold hope these veterans find homes at some point this season. People are focusing on more stable options and higher upside offenses instead of worrying about ways to be unique in week 17 of BBM4. It’s kind of refreshing, honestly, and I plan to draft a lot of teams to sweat each week on Weekly Winners.

“Is Marvin Harrison Jr. really that good?”

Two days ago, I had a patron ask me, “What’s your take on Marvin Harrison Jr? Is he really that good? I was debating today with a buddy, and he said, “Jefferson/Chase tier.’”

Without looking at too much, I told him, “I believe he is. He’ll end up being a top-10, at worst, draft pick and have a peak season close to the top-tier WR prospects we’ve seen.”

Let’s take a closer look at MHJr compared to current Tier 0 WRs, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.

As you can see in the percentiles shown in the radar chart above, Harrison Jr. is near or better than Chase and Jefferson in 5 of the six categories during their peak seasons. The yards after catch is a huge opportunity area for Marvin this upcoming 2023 season.

All three elite talents broke out in their second collegiate season, in which they all saw a target share of over 21%, reception yardage shares of over 29%, and touchdown shares of over 32%! Harrison Jr.’s best season yards per team pass attempt of 3.08 is between Chase’s (3.14) and Jefferson’s (2.72); all three are incredible marks. Both dominator (weighted 50% yardage share/50% touchdown share) and weighted dominator (80% yardage share/20% touchdown share) are in favor of Harrison Jr. As a sophomore, he had a 33.1% dominator and 32.8% weighted dominator. Chase’s were 31.0% and 30.1%, and Jefferson’s (junior year) were 27.4% and 26.3%.

I know it’s crazy to think, but Marvin Harrison Jr. will be a top-5 dynasty WR the minute his name is called in the 2024 Draft. Is that right? Truthfully, I don’t know. He’s going to have the prospect profile and pedigree to warrant it, but can we really put a wide receiver that high before he steps on the field? I distinctly remember a few years back, the fantasy community debating whether or not a highly drafted WR belonged in the top-5 after a rumor about him not being able to catch despite having 17 receptions, 297 yards, and 4 TDs through his first four career games. Spoiler: it was Ja’Marr Chase.


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Understanding injuries can help give you an edge over your competitors as you enter (or continue) Draft SZN, especially timeframes, and understanding which injuries to be concerned about and which ones you can likely ignore. As training camp ramps up, we will inevitably hear about players suffering injuries (most likely the most common: soft tissue injuries). A lot of these occur due to players’ increasing their workload and likely experiencing an altered work: rest ratio that their body hasn’t fully acclimated to. It’s also good to keep in mind that the majority of these injuries will only affect production for a short period of time, so it’s not a reason to avoid these players, but could be a good reason to avoid starting these injured players in their first week back from injury. Which of these injuries do we need to be concerned about? (all data pulled from this article by Dr. Adam Hutchison).

Quarterbacks: the injuries that would lead to the highest prolonged production dip would be shoulder sprains (specifically throwing arm, -18%), elbow injuries, and hamstring strains (-39%, and my own speculation that a higher dip would occur for mobile QBs like Kyler Murray compared to more of a pocket passer like Matt Stafford). These injuries lead to production dips for up to 3+ weeks upon return, though high ankle sprains, foot (nonspecific), and elbow injuries did lead to the highest average missed time of 4+ weeks. Watch for these towards the middle and end of preseason, as they may bleed into production dips at the beginning of the season. The most concerning leading up to the start of the season would be elbow, shoulder, and high ankle injuries leading into the season, though any hamstring injuries that occur immediately before the season would be highly problematic.

Running backs: the injuries that would lead to the highest prolonged production dip would be hamstring strains, quadriceps strains, and high ankle sprains, all of -20% or worse dips. These also coincide with three of the highest average weeks missed of more than 3+ weeks, along with foot (nonspecific) injuries of 4+ weeks. MCL sprains are also problematic, leading to an average of 3+ weeks missed, but production dip was only around -8% upon return compared to -20% for the prior mentioned injuries. Of note, calf strains were problematic as well, leading to an average of only 2+ missed weeks. However, a production dip of -45% was largely the biggest dip seen for running backs in the short term.
Keep an eye out specifically for calf strains close to the season start, but also consider the production dips for hamstring/quadriceps strains and high ankle sprains leading up to the season that may impact early season production. Also of note, high ankle sprains had the longest dip throughout the season for running backs, leading to a -13.7% dip for up to 8 weeks.

Wide receivers: the injuries that would lead to the highest prolonged production dip would be calf strains (-37%), MCL sprains (-26%), and high ankle sprains (-16.5%), highlighting high ankle sprains due to typical average weeks missed of 5+ leading to an overall higher total dip. Oddly enough, core/abdomen injuries can also be one of the worst injuries suffered for wide receivers, leading to an average of 5+ weeks missed. Watch closely for these (the core injuries can be tricky to ascertain but think back to when Rashod Bateman was struggling with a “groin” injury that continued to persist, these can be indicative of a more serious injury such as a sports hernia that would linger into the season).

Tight end: the injuries that would lead to the highest prolonged production dip would be MCL sprains (-54%), hamstring strains (-38%), back injuries (-35%), and calf strains (-33%). Of note, however, there wasn’t enough data to determine the percentage dip for high ankle sprains, but these led to the highest average weeks missed at 4.8 compared to second most, MCL sprains at 3.8 weeks. You are probably assuming correctly that because tight-end production is already low compared to wide receiver production, injuries to the TE group lead to higher production dips on average.

Great information to keep in mind as we get through preseason, and very relevant information for in-season as well. Make sure to follow Adam Hutchison, PT, DPT, for injury updates.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

I’ve noticed more and more people in bestball superflex leagues attempting to roll out only two quarterbacks. This is a very dangerous proposition. Last year there was one single QB who scored above average every single week, not counting their bye week. Patrick Mahomes. End of list. If we just start there, wouldn’t you need or like a QB to fill your Superflex spot when Pat is on a bye? I would. Mahomes was on a bye week 8. Rostering even a Mariotta, Brissett, Jimmy G, or Taylor Heinicke would have given you a weekly advantage that week at your SF spot. This is to fill in for the ONLY QB to go 17/17 in consistent weeks.

If you drop down and look at QBs in the very good category. In the top 8 group we all try to get as our 2nd QB, you get above average total weeks such as 15, 13, 10, 9, 8, etc. Multiple weeks where you could use a 3rd, and hell, even a 4th QB on your roster to fill the gaps. Bye weeks, injury, and bad performance are inevitable even for the very good category of QB. When looking at your QB position in Best Ball, don’t use rose-colored glasses. Bad things can and will happen. Insulate yourself and create a weekly advantage by adding the Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, and Jimmy G’s of the world to your QB repertoire. Your win total will thank me.


The Steelers RB you need to be targeting in drafts is NOT Najee Harris. Why is this true? It’s for the simple fact he hasn’t been efficient when touching the ball through his first two NFL seasons (via PlayerProfiler):

- 2.6% breakaway run rate (51st)

- 2.13 yards created per touch (45th)

- 3.7 true ypc (59th)

- 4.0 yards per touch (52nd)

One thing Najee had in his favor was volume, as he was 8th in weighted opportunities, 6th in red zone touches & 10th in opportunity share - unfortunately, he was only able to finish as the RB19 in ppg (13.2). You can chalk some of that up to him having a plate inserted into his foot earlier in the season, and when it came out, he improved slightly. But even going back to his rookie year, he wasn’t efficient then, either.

The RB you SHOULD be targeting is Jaylen Warren, who is going 32 RB slots after Najee in drafts (RB12 vs RB44). In several efficiency metrics that matter for RBs, Warren was better than Harris:

- 6.5% breakaway run rate (16th)

- 3.82 yards created per touch (5th)

- 4.7 true ypc (12th)

- 5.6 yards per touch (11th)

Additionally, he saw his snap rates increase over the latter half of the season - 30%+ snap share in 6 of the last seven games. At this point, he’s simply a better value in drafts than Najee Harris, who is less likely to give you spike/ceiling weeks in best ball. I would much rather take high-upside WRs in that 3-4 turn range where he’s currently going. Jaylen Warren has more upside & should he carve out a bigger role in 2023, he will more than pay off his ADP of 135 (RB44).

This week on the Overreaction Podcast, we dove into rookie QBs and why we aren’t particularly fond of building our QB room with rookies. Does this apply to other position groups too? Let’s look at the numbers and see if it’s something to consider with WR as well. Now, before we dive in, Jordan Backes has done some INCREDIBLE work with the analytics database and has some great threads on WR production in the discord. So, please check out his work!

Now, the data dump… In this first sample set, we have 25 1st round WRs that have been drafted since 2017, and of those, only 4 (16%) managed 14 ppg or more in their rookie year. That ppg total puts a player on track for a backend WR1- high-end WR2 season in full ppr. And, you guessed, two of them are Jefferson and Chase. The others are Waddle and Aiyuk. From their rookie to sophomore season, there are 18 that qualify, and 7 (~39%) hit the 14 ppg in year 2. Aiyuk took a step back, but Lamb, Ridley, DeVonta Smith, and DJ Moore joined the group. Finally, we have year three, where 5 of 13 (~38%) accomplish the 14 ppg mark. The only new addition to the prior year is Hollywood Brown. The final piece of information to note, since 2014, of EVERY WR to enter the league, only Jefferson and Chase hit 17 ppg each of their first two years in the league (Jefferson all 3).

What does all this mean? Well, it tells us that Jefferson and Chase are probably outliers and 2 of the best WRs to play the game. When removing those two from the data set, the 14 ppg numbers drop to 8.6% in year 1, 31% in year 2, and 27% in year 3, and only 4 of 23 players hit top 12 at the position in their first three seasons. Yikes.

It also means to tread carefully even with 1st round WRs and temper expectations out the gate. If you are a win now team looking for surefire production, maybe it’s time you start exploring trades for a proven vet. Holding the youth is fine if you are retooling or rebuilding but be prepared for those assets to take a value dip after year 1. Every asset is tradable, and the more we stop focusing on the name value or the excitement of the next young talent, the sooner we can start building a monster dynasty roster.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

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