⛽️🔥The QB Carousel and NFL News Heating Up

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Prop, Lock & Drop It

One of my favorite players to watch period is Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum. Of late, he has been on a mission to lead the Celtics to the #1 seed in the East. After a slow start, the Celtics are now only 4 games out of first, mainly because of this man. Tatum has been scoring at will with back-to-back 40+ point games, over 30 in his last 4 games, and at least 6 FTM in each of his last 11 games. Tatum has a PAR of 41.5 tonight vs the last Detroit Pistons. I would look for him to continue his dominance and would consider that 41.5 ✅ or his points at 28.5 ✅.

On the opposite side of this game is the 2021 #1 overall pick, Cade Cunningham who has been on a tear in his own right. Scoring 20+ in each of his last 5 games. His number on Prizepicks again is 19.5 ✅, so we will be using that number or his PAR which sits at 30.5 ✅ currently. He has hit that number in his last 5 games as well. The Celtics have been playing very well but this could be a matchup where both Tatum and Cade have great games.

Other Props We Like:

  • Davonte Graham Over 15.5 Points ✅

  • Darius Garland Under 36.5 PAR ✅

  • Dejaunte Murray Over 38.5 PAR ✅

  • Luka Doncic Over 9.0 REB ✅

Update: 6/6 on these Newsletter bets from 03/11, can't do any better than that. Time to subscribe and play with us.

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Two Quarterbacks on the Move

We saw one of the biggest trades in recent memory go down this past week when Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos for a package of picks and players.

Our immediate reaction is that this is a massive offensive upgrade for the entire system. That said, don't go out and acquire Jerry Jeudy or Cortland Sutton, assuming they will be "the guy" because we don't know. They are all winners, and Albert Okwuegbunam will now be the lone tight end talent but still has many players to compete with for targets.

Javonte Williams' touchdown ceiling drastically improves offense with this quarterback change. He was valued very highly before this trade and should continue to hold that value with his new quarterback under center.

This gives them plenty of draft equity on the Seattle side and should vault them directly into the quarterback market. Whether they stay at 9th overall or move up to get their guy is uncertain. What is certain is that Drew Lock is not a long-term solution for the Seahawks, and they will be looking for a replacement quickly.

We also saw the trade of Carson Wentz to the Washington Commanders. This is at worst, an upgrade for the pass catchers, at least in terms of throwing talents. We are not suggesting commanders fans should be excited, but this is likely the best QB Terry McLaurin has ever had in his career, which is exciting.

This is likely a slight downgrade for Michael Pittman Jr., who just had a great season with Wentz, and puts the Colts back into the QB market. Jimmy Garapolo has been a name floated around, and I would not forget about Kirk Cousins, who is arguably a top 5 quarterback in the NFC and could be on the move. The Colts have an incredible roster but are desperate for a starting quarterback, and giving up on Wentz proves that.

Superflex Rookie ADP Review Post Combine

With the NFL combine over we wanted to run some mock drafts to assess where the values of some of these players have shifted since the combine. With our patrons, we ran a total of 5 mock drafts and are going to review the ADP of the 2022 NFL Rookies since the combine had taken place to see where some of these values differ and which direction players are trending. There may be a case for Breece Hall at 1.01 even in these Superflex drafts, so let's dive in and see how this looks.

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Overview of 2022 Rookie Quarterback Class

I wanted to overview what to expect from the 2022 quarterback class and how they stack up from an analytics perspective. We have discussed breakout age before, and put getting on the field early and producing at any position is an excellent indicator of success at the next level. The two other highlighted metrics that we track are QBR and Yards Per Attempt as efficiency metrics in college, hoping that can translate to the NFL.

We know who the top guys are. Matt Corral has green across the board and was a mega-producer at a top school in the SEC for the past two seasons. He broke out a little later but had one of the best profiles from an analytical perspective. Sam Howell from North Carolina and Brock Purdy from Iowa State are the two worth mentioning.

Howell was a 3-year starter at UNC, and you can see that he was very influential across the board as a starter. It's challenging to do what he did at such a high level and not be a good quarterback. He lost a ton of talent this past year and had over 800 rushing yards, showing he is an actual dual threat.

If we're looking at one passing profile, Purdy is looking like the potential outlier nobody is talking about. I broke out before turning 19 in year one. His passing metrics rival those of some of the top quarterbacks, and he won't be drafted high in rookie drafts, if at all. He could completely flame out, but looking at all of these profiles, it's difficult to ignore what Purdy did for the Cyclones as a starter.

For all of the great information provided by Jordan Backes make sure you check out his analytical database as part of the 4-Star membership to Prospect Talk. He dives deep into all of this data so you don't have to, but to have access to all of it, you have to be a member of the 4-star tier on Patreon. Sign up by clicking the banner above.

RB Rueben Owens is THE MAN in Texas

They say that everything is bigger in the state of Texas and the same can be said for the potential that HS Class of 2023 RB Rueben Owens holds. At 5’11 190lbs out of El Campo, TX Rueben absolutely torched his competition every single week.

This season as a junior Owens was 11 yards shy of 3000 on the ground and rushed for 46 touchdowns. As a superior athlete, his strengths are his vision, explosion, power, and acceleration that will leave defenders eating grass. 

This past track season Owens jumped 23-3 in the long jump and has been clocked at 21.5 MPH for in-game playing speed. These are elite-level measurements to pair with elite instincts. Rueben Owens might just be the next big thing out of Texas.

It’s hard to believe it’s already been FIFTY episodes here at Elite Seekers powered by Destination Devy Radio! This week @TheBenEby wanted it to be a special episode so he chose to dive into one of the most history-rich football states in America. Texas was under the scope for episode 50 and it did…

Adam (@atm4dchess) and Mike (@iowamichael) discuss the current value of 2022 picks and how most “experts,” told you the value was depressed. Ray always says “be mindful of the content you consume” and as it turns out, the 4D pod told you to fade the noise and BUY '22 1sts!

Gene @FantasyGenes and Ike @Just_Ike09 continue the position tiers series with WRs. They discuss how yards per route run (YPRR) strongly correlated to WR fantasy production. Is Ja’Marr Chase a Tier 1 WR? DJ Moore is awesome but where does he slot in? Implications of Russell Wilson to the Broncos & Carson Wentz to Washington. What to do with the Bucs receivers? Takeaways from the combine, recent news & more. 

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