⛽️🔥 Spring Practices means New Devy ADP!

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Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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Marvin Harrison put on a show when he helped the Ohio State Buckeyes beat the Utah Utes in the 2022 Rose Bowl. It was his first time being a full-time WR as both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave decided to skip the bowl to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft, but it was one of the biggest coming-out parties we have seen. The 6’ 4” 205lb true freshman only had seven targets, but he caught 6 of those turning them into 71 yards and three touchdowns. A star was born.

Since then, Harrison has received a ton of hype, and rightfully so. As a sophomore, he put up 1263 yards on 77 catches, 14 of which were turned into touchdowns. He has checked almost every box possible and will be an elite NFL prospect this time next year.

Marvin Harrison Jr would have been the WR1 in 2022 and 2023, but is he even the WR1 in his own class? Right now, he is graded out as my WR2 in the 2024 NFL Draft Class. To find out who is WR1 and why Marvin Harrison Jr isn't WR1, make sure to tune into this upcoming week’s episode of Who’s Next.

Spring practices are underway at the college level as teams begin to put in work for the upcoming season. This is an important time for some of these young prospects to try and acclimate to the offense and move up the depth chart. This week I’m taking a look at how our Devy ADP is shaping up so far this year.

1.01 - Caleb Williams (QB, USC) - The Heisman trophy winner from 2022 sits at the 1.01, and rightfully so, as he possesses konami upside in our fantasy leagues

1.02 - Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina) - If you don’t get the rights to Caleb Williams, you won’t be complaining about landing Drake Maye instead. It will be interesting to see how this season unfolds for both of these premiere quarterbacks and if Maye can supplant Williams by the end.

1.03 - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ohio State) - To say I am in love with Marvin Harrison Jr. is an understatement as he ranks first overall on my personal Devy board. Not only does he have the namesake, he has the talent and tools to warrant early selection in all formats. I feel the same sort of value insulation as Ja’Marr Chase with MHJ; the only question being how well he plays without CJ Stroud this year. My guess is it won't matter, just feed him the ball.

1.04 - TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State) - Hope has not been lost on Henderson after a hampered season due to injuries. Last year he was neck and neck with Bijan for much of the year and still remains a highly coveted asset going forward.

1.05 - Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia) - People are as excited for Bowers as they were for Kyle Pitts coming out. Most of us play in TE premium formats so expect Bowers to remain a coveted asset at a position that is hard to hit on.

1.06 - Nicholas Singleton (RB, Penn State) - Few things get us more excited than an amazing freshman season from a running back. With over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, the arrow is pointing up for Singleton as he builds on his freshman campaign.

1.07 - Raheim Sanders (RB, Arkansas) - “Rocket” had an amazing sophomore season with over 1400 yards and ten touchdowns. He also showed improvements in his receiving game, snagging 28 catches for 271 yards and a couple more touchdowns. Sanders has the size, speed, and production to make him my RB1 in Devy, personally, so at 1.07, that feels like a value to me.

1.08 - Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State) - Ohio State has just been printing money at the wide receiver position over recent years and we can add Egbuka to that list. I suspect that this Buckeye will live in the shadow of Marvin Harrison Jr and be a constant value come time for our rookie drafts.

1.09 - Malik Nabers (WR, LSU) - LSU has a great history as well for cranking out quality wide receivers for the NFL. Nabers has the potential to elevate his stock on the back of a strong performance last year if he and quarterback Jayden Daniels can gel after another year in this Brian Kelly offense.

1.10 - Quinshon Judkins (RB, Ole Miss) - Like Singleton, Judkins was another freshman running back that exploded on the scene this year. The Rebels had no choice but to feed him the ball as he racked up over 1500 yards and 16 touchdowns while simultaneously asserting himself over the incumbent Zach Evans.

1.11 - Braelon Allen (RB, Wisconsin) - Allen has put up back to back 1200 yard seasons with double digit touchdowns as well, which we love to see from an analytics perspective. He seems like a solid and safe choice at the back of the first.

1.12 - Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas) - The Longhorns have options at quarterback with Arch Manning coming in as a freshman, but this is Ewers’ job to lose. I expect him to take a step forward this year with some added competition in the locker room to motivate that progress.

Injury Profile: Marquise Brown, WR ARI

Brown was an absolute terror at the beginning of the season, scoring 109.5 points for an average of 18.3 points per game as the WR7 overall prior to breaking a bone in his foot. He missed five games, playing in the final six games of the season but scoring a max of 12.10 points. However, the majority of the final production came after Kyler Murray tore his ACL. It seems like the dynasty community has forgotten about his hot start to the season or is discounting him far too much for Murray, likely missing the first half of the season in 2023 because he is coming off as the WR24 overall in startup ADP. Brown is only 26 next season, so if this value holds, he could wind up being one of the best bargains of the off-season. Every indication is that Brown will be the focal point of Arizona’s offense and wide receiver group moving forward as they try to trade DeAndre Hopkins away.

From an injury perspective, there should be some concern regarding his foot injury history, having suffered a Lisfranc injury with surgery, multiple ankle sprains, and this most recent foot fracture. But when he’s healthy, he performs at an elite level, especially with Kyler Murray (his old college quarterback) throwing to him and DeAndre Hopkins (on the trade block) out of the picture. I would expect a return to high-tier performance once Murray returns in mid- to late-season 2023, with overall low reinjury risk by mid-season from this most recent fracture that he had suffered. While the multiple injury occurrences have slight concern, the reinjury risk is actually relatively low per each injury that he has suffered, and I would expect him to return to form in 2023. His current price compared to projected fantasy point production already bakes in his reinjury risk. Buy while you can.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Adam Talks about Elijah Moore's New Home and Future Value

The Cleveland Browns acquired the talented but disgruntled receiver in a trade with the New York Jets. As the Jets are acquiring every receiver they can ultimately to land Aaron Rodgers, it was becoming increasingly clear that a trade was necessary for Elijah Moore’s value not to crater even further. The trade to Cleveland certainly is a good thing for his dynasty managers. But how excited should we be?

There were probably only a few landing spots out there which we can definitively say would be better than his landing spot in Cleveland. Kevin Stefanski wants to open this offense with Deshaun Watson, and prioritizing adding another receiver seems to confirm that. Amari Cooper and David Njoku will certainly be focal points in the passing game still, but Elijah Moore will have plenty of chances to earn targets.

There are still plenty of question marks around this situation too. Watson was very rusty in his return to the field last season. Will he get back to his elite level of play, or is that a thing of the past? Ultimately, this is the biggest question for Elijah Moore’s value. If Deshaun Watson returns to the discussion as a top 5 quarterback, there is no doubt that Elijah Moore can thrive in this offense for fantasy purposes. However, if Watson does not return to that level of prominence, Elijah Moore could be competing for targets with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Donovan Peoples-Jones in a mediocre offense.

Deshaun Watson will be the best quarterback Elijah Moore has ever played with. This quarterback upgrade, as well as a change of scenery from a place which he wanted out of, is a nice start for him in dynasty. I am more excited for him now, but I caution you to be careful not to spend too much based on this trade and overreact. In a 12-team super flex league, I can understand acquiring him for a mid to late second, but sending away an early 2nd or late first is far too ambitious for me (even if he is on my hometown Cleveland Browns).

Underdog ADP Mover: Damien Harris

One full week of free agency has passed, so we have some new Underdog ADP data to see how the public has reacted to the plethora of moves.

I want to touch on the running back for the Buffalo Bills, Damien Harris.

I think Harris to the Bills is a great move for both. On Underdog, Harris's ADP has moved 16 spots in the last two days and is now getting drafted at the end of the 12th round when previously early 14th round. He takes on the role that Singletary has held as being the early down and goal-line back. Harris is an RB21 in 2021, but 2022 was not nice to him due to injury and Stevenson taking over the backfield. Singletary converted just 11% of his red zone rushes into tds. In 2021, Harris converted 20% when he held the majority of the rushing duties. I believe in this offense. He can definitely convert around that range or even higher.

He will be a value, in my opinion, based on the setup of this offense. A physical runner not dealing with loaded boxes, sign me up at the 12th round.

Eric gives some under the Radar RB in this upcoming Draft

Film scouting. We all do it. We go watch some Just Bomb Production or Sick Editz highlights or whoever. Well, that is where I am in my process right now. Do I get the full complete picture of a prospect? No. I do gain enough to know what I need to see. After watching back-to-back-to-back highlights of prospects, you can tell what 4.4 Speed looks like vs. 4.6 speed. You know who’s good at reading blocks, who are shifty, who runs right up the lineman’s butt and has no vision whatsoever. So after doing a little bit of running back scouting the last few days. Here are some under-the-radar guys that I like what I saw on tape.

The first one I’m going to highlight is RB Israel Abandikanda from Pittsburgh. Now a lot of us may know who he is, but some of you don’t. Izzy, as we nicknamed him in the community, is a SUPER explosive 200+ pound back. His tape is simple electric from last season. His tape is so good with everything from vision, elusiveness, and speed that I almost want to put him in my top 5 over some of the big popular names. Izzy didn’t test at the combine, but there was talk that he could be a 4.3 guy. He is someone I’m going to have high on my radar, and if he gets the draft capital, it is wheels up for me.

The next one I want to highlight who had a “Bad Senior Bowl” but had a very good combine was RB Chase Brown from Illinois. Like Izzy, his tape is just absolutely electric as well. Chase had a really bad senior bowl, so I think a lot of people have kind of buried him, but I wouldn’t let just a bad few practices affect that too much. The tape is good, like really good. Super explosive 4.4 athlete with good vision, and a great burst, love what I saw from Chase Brown. I have him quite on my list as well, and hoping to see good draft capital for him. If he’s a round 4 pick or so, it is wheels up. If he gets in the zone scheme offense, LOOK OUT!

The last one I want to bring up is Deuce Vaughn out of Kansas State. Now I know he’s smaller, and he would be an outlier much like Darren Sproles was, BUT in a specific role like a Boston Scott or Darren Sproles-type player played in the RIGHT offense, I think he could be a useful fantasy asset. Looking at you, Sean Payton, in Denver. If Vaughn ended up there and Payton could use him like a Sproles, probably used in the return game, too, I think Vaughn could have a solid shot. Now I’m not using a top-24 rookie pick on him, but if he's someone I can snag in Round 3-4 or off my waivers, I’m going to do it. He has a great skill set. He’s just small and an outlier. Just remember, he’s never going to be a workhorse. Keep your expectations low, and you could have a nice diamond in the rough here.

Cody Talks about the RB Landscape in the NFL

The fantasy community has been on a roller coaster ride with the 2023 class. From the lofty heights of the best class in a generation to not even having eight players, we’re really enamored with it. On The Overreaction podcast this week, Chase and I reacted to this class being a “BUST.” While I don’t believe this is true, I also don’t believe it’s as great as it once was thought to be. The position that I think has taken the largest hit recently, though, is the RB position.

I struggled with this one for a while. My favorite prospect in this class is Zach Charbonnet. I’m enamored with the talent of Kendre Miller, my alma matter hero is Devon Achane, and a late riser for me is Tank Bigsby. This RB class is deep, so at the surface, it doesn’t make sense for it to be a falling stock. But just take a look back at the last two weeks of free agency at the position. What’s the best landing spot you’ve seen play out? Is Sanders in Carolina? Is Penny in Philadelphia? D’Onta Foreman in Chicago? The landing spots are not open for players to come in and take over significant workloads. Couple that with the money that we’ve seen these RBs get in their deals. Miles Sanders is the one who got the largest guaranteed bag with $11 million over two years, but the majority of deals are barely cracking $2 million. The running back position is NOT valued by NFL teams in this current landscape.

With all of the information that the NFL has already told us about this class, let's take that and apply it to what will happen when these rookies get drafted. I have 22 running backs that I believe should be drafted in this class ranging from Bijan to Deneric Prince. Add in a couple more wild cards as the NFL scouts, who dive much deeper than I can, fall in love with FBS talents in the 7th round, and we can make it a rough 25. There are very few landing spots left that I think would contribute to a value bump for the prospect who goes there in the mid-rounds. As it currently stands, I would say Dallas, Kansas City, and possibly Tampa Bay, depending on your belief in Rachaad White. There just aren’t enough spots for these guys to fill, and no reason for the NFL teams to spend up to take them. The fact is that your 2nd round RBs this year probably don’t have as high of a chance to be the next Dameon Pierce or Tyler Allgeier. While I think this class is full of guys who will contribute at the NFL level, I think they will do so in specialized roles without the ability to trust as a starter week in and week out in most formats.

For a deeper dive into the RB position, you can listen back to the Overreaction Podcast this week, where Chase and I break down even more reasons to be concerned with this RB class. Are weight thresholds a main contributor to fantasy production? Is this class a bust? Is Jahmyr Gibbs really the locked-in RB 2 of the class? Or is it all just an Overreaction? We’ll find out soon enough.  

Dynasty Trade of the week

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