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- ⛽️🔥 Talkin' Football with Nate Liss, Selling the '22 Rookies & RB Hit Rates
⛽️🔥 Talkin' Football with Nate Liss, Selling the '22 Rookies & RB Hit Rates
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Wake Up x Prize Picks
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The NBA news cycle moves quickly and can be everything for a play. So be sure to check Twitter or another outlet to be sure you are up to date on all the latest news. Based on the matchups for today here are the bets we are targeting with the lines below. We will be in the discord prior to lock to discuss any last-minute changes, and good luck if you tail our bets.
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Are we Selling the 2022 NFL Rookie Class??
With the majority of the process complete all that is left is for NFL GMs and coaches to decide how much they like the players in the 2022 NFL Draft Class. As fantasy football players we need to be honest and assess just how strong this class is and whether or not these players are over-drafted or under drafted.
Talking Football with Nate Liss
Ray was joined by Nate Liss from The Breakout Finder and Player Profiler to talk some fantasy football, and so much more! Check it out if you missed it live or haven't seen it yet.
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Wake Up with Ray G Live Monday - Thursday 8 am-9 am EST for your enjoyment. So interact with us and ask us questions, and they just may be answered on the show! Ray and Jordan provide vital stats and metrics to help fantasy footballers make smarter decisions.
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Let's Talk Running Back Hit Rates
A couple of weeks ago we took a look at WR hit rates based on draft capital. Well, with one week until the 2022 NFL Draft, we need to take a look at the other premium position: Running Backs.
The tables below highlight the likelihood a drafted RB will perform at least one top 12 season. The table uses data from and including the 2015 NFL Draft to the 2021 NFL Draft. One table has all seven rounds separated while the other is categorized by day drafted: Day 1 is Round 1, Day 2 includes Rounds 2 & 3, and Day 3 includes Rounds 4, 5, 6, & 7.
Needless to say, Round 1 is king. If an RB is drafted in the First Round, there is about a 2/3rds chance they will be a top 12 RB at least once. Also, 8 of the 25 total hits (32%) have been First Round Picks.
Rounds 2 (31.3%) and 3 (33.3%) are relatively close in hit rate, which makes sense logically as we primarily consider them together in the Day 2 bucket. However, when comparing Day 2 against Day 1 RBs, the top 12 hit rate is roughly cut in half!
Lastly, the Day 3 crew. Everybody loves their sleeper RB, but with a combined 5.4% top 12 hit rate (6 times less likely than a Day 2 RB), the odds of them becoming an RB1 are extremely slim. Keep that in mind when your 2022 Rookie Drafts roll around!
For all of the great information provided by Jordan Backes, make sure you check out his analytical database as part of the 4-Star membership to Prospect Talk. He dives deep into all of this data, so you don't have to, but to have access to it, you have to be a member of the 4-star tier on Patreon. Sign up by clicking the banner above.
Big as Clowney, faster than Jameson Williams
World, meet Nyckoles Harbor, pronounced NICK-A-LIS. Yes, this is a name that nobody will need help saying in a few short years. If you are on social media or own a TV, or a computer, then you heard about this 6’5 freak of an athlete breaking the internet by running a 10.32 100m dash.
If you’re not familiar with track times, for a junior in high school, this is special! When you flip on Harbor’s football HUDL film you will also see a heck of a football player and a Goliath standing next to most. But all that might not even be his best traits. It’s the high bar he sets for himself in anything he does. From wanting to be an NFL star to representing his country in the Olympics, to wanting to be a doctor, Nyckoles does nothing half-heartedly. This is what will make him elite, not just his incredible athleticism.
Now we don’t know where he will play or what position (has seen time at WR/TE/DE/OLB) but we do know he’ll be great at whatever he chooses. Consider me all in on Team Harbor!
In episode 55, @TheBenEby visits the Central East Region which includes Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Washington DC.
Adam (@atm4dchess) and Mike (@iowamichael) are joined by the Director of Analytics at Destination Devy Jordan Backes (@jordanbackes33) to discuss the analytical profiles of some of our favorite targets in rounds 3-5 of rookie drafts.
Gene @FantasyGenes and Ike @Just_Ike09 reassess the 2021 rookie class as they highlight the best, worst & Year 2 breakouts. Ja’Marr Chase vs OBJ rookie seasons - which one was better? The QB class didn’t perform well as a whole but Trevor Lawrence is in a prime bounce-back spot.
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