Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

Click on the link below to view This Week's Wake-Up episode/Prop bet videos and more!👇

Wins above replacement player (WORP) gets a lot of love within the Destination Devy community. Understanding the historical WORP distribution of your league provides the necessary insight into optimal roster construction. Identifying where the advantages lie for each position and which ranges flatten out gives you more freedom and flexibility to manage your portfolio of players.

Underdog ADP provides insight as to where serious drafters value these players. Hundreds of thousands of people have effectively spoken through this ADP, and right or wrong, it is one of the best baselines we have to gauge how people think the season will play out. There are countless influences on what makes us draft a particular player as we analyze how they did last year and what we think they will do for us this year.

I decided to compare the 2022 WORP against the 2023 ADP to create a baseline for evaluating the present ADP. Miles Sanders is being drafted at 70 overall toward the end of the 6th round. His WORP from last year was 22 overall in this format. People are baking regression into Sanders' ADP with his new offense and showing little confidence in drafting him. What if he plays about the same as last year? Improving is also in his range of outcomes too. With an ADP of 70, he ultimately feels like a value and could become a WORP difference maker for us relative to his ADP.

No hard-hitting or actionable information this week, but I do have a preview of what is coming to our website. You’ve seen the radar charts over the last few months and even some comparison charts over the last couple of weeks. Well, soon, you’ll be able to create your own comparisons.

As you can see above, we have created an app that allows you to compare up to three players at a time with seasonal data. As of right now, we only have data back to 2018, but more will be coming soon! If you wanted to compare Jonathan Taylor’s 2019 season to Bijan Robinson’s 2021 season, you now can with a few clicks!

This application and more tools will be headed your way soon once the Destination Devy website officially launches!

UNDERDOG FANTASY

Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

As we enter training camp, here are a few predictions for the 2023 season, including who the 49ers starting QB is:

Brock Purdy, QB SF

Purdy notably suffered a UCL tear at the end of the 49ers’ season, putting his 2023 season in jeopardy. The good news is that he was able to have surgery on March 10 involving a UCL repair versus a reconstruction, which accelerates his recovery to close to 6 months. When does the 2023 season start? Exactly six months from his surgery date, on the dot. What is important in these details? We know that Purdy has been throwing since May 29t^h, which was actually several days ahead of schedule before his 12-week timeline on June 3, and has been throwing without pain or setbacks. What we don’t know is his velocity, his distance, his amount of throws, and his accuracy during this entire time, but every indication out of the 49ers camp has been optimistic that Purdy will be ready for week 1 of the season. This is notable for fantasy, as Purdy lit the fantasy boards on fire on his way to producing the 6th most points per dropback just behind Patrick Mahomes and multiple mobile QBs. There continues to be debate amongst 49ers Twitter fans as to whether Purdy or Lance will start, and I think one of the most important factors will come down to this: Purdy’s EPA per play was nearly identical to Jimmy Garoppolo’s, and the 49ers offense was on absolute fire with Purdy at the helm with 32.6 points per game, 2^nd in pass EPA per play, 3^rd in explosive pass rate, and 4^th in drive success. The fact of the matter was, Purdy performed as good, if not better, than Jimmy Garoppolo and didn’t have the same boneheaded “what are you doing?!” type throws that JG would have per game. He executed the offense to near perfection. You simply can’t start a project like Trey Lance over a quarterback who performed as well as Purdy did if Purdy is fully healthy by week one, especially when you’re in a Super Bowl window that the 49ers find themselves in right now. As much as I love the idea of Trey Lance, Purdy did exactly what Kyle Shanahan has been looking for in his quarterback play. Expect that to continue in 2023.

Javonte Williams has notably been on a great pace in his recovery, even participating in OTAs and (so far) avoiding PUP as training camp nears. His recovery has continued to steer in a much better direction than JK Dobbins’, leaving me optimistic that he will be active for week 1 of the 2023 season.

Isiah Pacheco was placed on PUP to begin camp, however, will reportedly come off of the list very quickly as he participates in practice. He has already said that he feels great, and teammates have said you can’t even tell he is coming off of an injury.

Kendre Miller is one to keep an eye on, as he was placed on the Non-Football Injured list as he continues to rehab from his MCL and/or meniscus injury from college. The Saints are apparently not medically concerned about him, leading me to believe that placing him on NFI is precautionary to ease him into participation. Keep a close eye on him, but I do believe he will be active for week 1.

We have finally seen video of Kyle Pitts running around and training, giving us optimism that he is fully cleared and will be participating fully in camp. Should be wheels up for week 1.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

How about a little Underdog strategy talk?

This year for these Best Ball drafts, I am using WoRP. If you don’t know what WoRP is, then take a second to go give one of our recent pod’s a listen, or better yet, check out Scott’s podcast for a better explanation.

Using WoRP for these drafts has led me to two conclusions.

1. Equal WoRP range RBs are almost dead equal to equal range WRs. Due to the .5 PPR format, this makes a ton of sense.

2. The equity you need to spend on RB lends itself to midrange values that should bode well for your teams.

WRs are flying off the boards early. You are set up for the best success by grabbing at least one of them in the first two rounds. As the drafts progress, the gap between the two becomes very favorable to select RBs> WRs. Most times, you’ll find ranges of WR20+ as your options in the middle rounds vs. selecting the top 5-12 RBs. That range of RB has WoRP values in the range of 1.82 - 1.12. WRs in the 20 -27 range run WoRP values in the range of .85 - .75.

All this is to say, RBs matter! Go get them in your Underdog drafts.

Aaron Jones is annually underrated in fantasy football. Look no further than his current ADP of RB17 (51 overall) on Underdog despite finishing as a top-10 RB for the FOURTH consecutive season. We are fully aware that the Packers are in transition due to the departure of long-time signal caller Aaron Rodgers this off-season, but I don’t think that will impact his efficiency.

One thing we can point to with Jones, though, is his underutilization. Over the past four years his opportunity share (via PlayerProfiler):

• 54.2% (29th)

• 52.7% (25th)

• 60.6% (18th)

• 62.2% (18th)

When he is taken off the field for other inefficient ball carriers in the backfield (AJ Dillon, Jamaal Williams in prior years), it frustrates many fantasy managers as Jones has consistently shown that he’s the superior RB. Over the past 15 years, among RBs with a minimum of 100 “designed” rushes, take a look at where Jones ranks:

He has been an efficiency monster from the moment he stepped on the field in 2017 (his rookie year) & has continued to do so despite questionable usage. He has shown an ability to command targets out of the backfield (2nd on the team in targets over the past four years) and, with that, has been in the top 12 in weighted opportunities (placing more emphasis on targets/points generated from types of touches) three out of the last four years.

I am comfortably drafting Jones ahead of guys like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Kenneth Walker that go in the same range. Getting him in the 5th round at his current price is an absolute steal & a market inefficiency that you should continue to exploit this summer!

Over the past week, we had the breaking news of Deandre Hopkins signing with the Titans. The internet went nuts, and fantasy analysts immediately started talking about the impact he will have on his new team. While this is exciting news, to me, the more important signing that seemingly went under the radar was Evan Engram locking in a 3-year/ $41 million deal to stay with Doug Pederson and the Jaguars.

Cody’s projections have Engram finishing at TE4 overall, and while people might feel that is high, is it really? Just last year, Engram finished 4th in both receptions and yards among TEs, 2nd in YAC, and top 8 in almost every other category of note. And now he’s tied to that Pederson offense for the next three years.

I could dive deeper into the stats and analytics, but the real insight is what’s going on with the overall community value. Engram is TE 14 on KTC… FOURTEEN! Currently, behind the likes of LaPorta, Mayer, Chiggy, Dulcich, Kincaid, and Waller. This shows me that the community is going to be slow to react to him. They want to see him do it again… but when he does, the window to buy is shut. Looking at Bulletproof’s trade finder, Engram is being valued as a 2024 2nd at the moment. He has been traded for Elijah Moore and Otton, Downs and 2024 3rd, straight swap for Mattison, and he’s been moved straight up for a 2nd. This won’t be his value everywhere, but if you can acquire him at this price… do it before it’s too late.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Tee Higgins or Christian Watson and a 2nd?

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