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⛽️ 🔥 Tolbert Buzz,Training Camp Injuries
🚀 College QB Metrics, July 2023 Rookie ADP data, JT Trade and More!
Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!
VIDEO OF THE WEEK
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College Football Previews-Quarterbacks
With the College Football season quickly approaching, I will introduce you (or re-familiarize you) to names to watch. This mini-series will lead us up to Week 0, so you’ll have some reference for all four position groups once the season kicks off. This mini-series will give you names to watch for this year and familiarize you with names for your 2023 and 2024 dynasty rookie drafts and/or devy drafts.
First, we will cover the most critical position on the field: kickers. Who wouldn’t want the next Justin Tucker on their team..?! Just kidding. Obviously, there’s nowhere else to start other than the Quarterbacks. You already know CJ Stroud and Bryce Young, but what does the rest of the 2023 Draft Class have to offer? What about 2024? Take a look below.
The production metrics are some of the analytics I look at when evaluating QB performance and what actually translates to fantasy football success at the NFL level. Descriptions for each statistic are listed at the bottom of the graphic.
This is just one SMALL part of the work that goes into JB's analytic database. To gain access to these types of charts and much more subscribe at the All-American level tier below!
Berry’s bringing you a sweet treat this week with a look at the top 3 by position from our 2023 Rookie ADP for July, let’s get it!
Quarterbacks
QB1 - CJ Stroud - Ohio State - ADP 2.1
Buckeye fans have plenty to be excited for in 2022 with Stroud behind center. With so many talented weapons around him in this offense like Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Emeka Egbuka, and Marvin Harrison Jr, and his expected improvement as a pocket passer, I anticipate another massive season in 2022.
QB2 - Bryce Young - Alabama - ADP 3.6
The 2021 Heisman winner is a runner-up in our ADP this month, playing second fiddle to CJ Stroud. Young still requires an early selection in our 2023 rookie mocks, and deservedly so. In 2021, he put up more yards and touchdowns and completed more passes than CJ Stroud. Expect Bryce Young to challenge our thought process when he beats Stroud in every metric again this year.
QB3 - Will Levis - Kentucky - ADP 7.2
There is no QB from the 2023 rookie class I am rooting more for than Will Levis. The Kentucky prospect has the upside I am personally looking for on my fantasy rosters with his bazooka for an arm and above-average mobility. I can only hope the NFL draft community loves him as much as I do.
Running Backs
RB1 - Bijan Robinson - Texas - ADP 1.1
Bijan Robinson has dominated the first selection of nearly every rookie and devy mock I have been a part of, and rightfully so. As a community, we have not seen this much hype or excitement for a prospect since Saquon Barkley. Aside from an injury, I do not see a path to Bijan falling from 1.01 this year.
RB2 - Jahmyr Gibbs - Alabama - ADP 4.1
Gibbs may have made the single best choice in the offseason of any college prospect by transferring to Alabama from Georgia Tech. The spotlight will shine brightly on this talented individual, and I look forward to what he can show us in his junior campaign under a better offense. I expect him to continue to be utilized as a receiving threat out of the backfield and would happily draft the next Alvin Kamara at this ADP.
RB3 - Sean Tucker - Syracuse - ADP 9.9
After Bijan and Gibbs comes Sean Tucker, who offers a unique combination of size and speed for us to salivate over. The only concern I have with Sean Tucker is his helmet; it says Syracuse, and I’m not sure he will get enough NFL attention. When was the last time they produced a fantasy-relevant RB? I doubt any of us played fantasy when Jim Brown was ballin’ out.
Wide Receivers
WR1 - Jaxon Smith-Njiba - Ohio State - ADP 4.9
Jaxon Smith-Njiba made sure we would not forget his name during his jaw-dropping performance in the Rose Bowl. With 15 receptions for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns in that single game, we have vaulted him into the stratosphere like he’s Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. The bar is set extremely high for JSN in 2022, I just hope he can actually live up to our expectations.
WR2 - Kayshon Boutte - LSU - ADP 6.0
Coming off a season-ending ankle injury is no joke at the wide receiver position. Before the injury, Boutte was on pace for over 1000 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021. If he can return to form and come back healthy in 2022, I think he will challenge JSN for the first wide receiver off our boards in rookie drafts.
WR3 - Jordan Addison - USC - ADP 10.4
USC has a new look this year, with Caleb Williams transferring in at quarterback from Oklahoma and Jordan Addison coming in from Pittsburgh to be his number one target. The 2021 Biletnikoff winner may not be the biggest or the fastest at the position, but he can get open with elite route running and offers tremendous upside at all three levels of the field. The USC offense will elevate Addison to another level in 2022, and I am here for it.
Tight Ends
TE1 Michael Mayer - Notre Dame - ADP 8.8
Everyone wants Michael Mayer to be the next Gronk; there, I said it. With an ADP of 8.8, we are currently taking him over every running back not named Bijan or Gibbs, Jordan Addison, and projected first-round quarterbacks even. Tight ends often do not provide immediate production at the next level, so I am uneasy with Mayer being this high, especially with the running backs and wide receivers still available in that range.
TE2 Arik Gilbert - Georgia - ADP 16.0
Arik Gilbert has a lot of question marks surrounding his profile both on and off the field at this point in the process. At 6’5” and reportedly 265lbs, he has the size and speed we covet at the next level. We can only hope the transfer to Georgia allows us actually to see this specimen display his true talents.
TE3 Jaheim Bell - South Carolina - ADP 26.8
I think you could insert a half dozen other names into the TE3 spot at this point in the process, this month it just happens to be Jaheim Bell. Next month it could be Sam LaPorta. Frankly speaking in most league formats I am not prioritizing the tight end position, so for me, I would rather take a shot on a running back if I'm in the early third of most drafts.
If you want to check out how our ADP would look across 2 rounds of rookie draft click below:
As the weeks go on, we will likely see some more key injuries occur during pre-season so brace yourselves. We have our first critical pre-season injury: unfortunately, Denver WR Tim Patrick tore his ACL and is out for the season. Patrick was in line to provide a vital role for the Broncos' offense, but thankfully it seems KJ Hamler has been removed from PUP and ramping up his reps.
There was a minor scare involving KC Chiefs WR Skyy Moore when he came up limping after an awkward land/tackle. The good news is he appears to be just fine and is already back practicing. I had speculated a potential quadriceps strain, but truly hard to determine by available video. No concern here.
Najee Harris had his left foot stepped on in practice, seen walking off of the field without his cleat on following a trainer to a cart. Early word is that this is not serious and that he has been held out of practice as a precaution, but monitoring this one closely. If a fracture had occurred, we likely would have heard about it already so I do think the concern here is minimal.
Lastly, check out this mini-thread on Jaguars RB Travis Etienne’s running mechanics. The good news is, that he has always run like this so his body has undoubtedly acclimated to his gait over time. However, the concern is how his feet and ankles hold up to the higher NFL volume. Any time you see midfoot collapse and an ankle rocker like this, your concern for lower extremity injuries tends to increase. As for now, I would classify Etienne’s running mechanics in the “Monitoring” phase rather than stating his injury risk should be considered higher than it may actually be.
🚨TRADE OF THE WEEK 🚨
This trade is brought to you by the good people of DD in our exclusive trade channel where we only post and discuss dynasty trades. The basics here are 12-Team Dynasty Superflex Tight End Premium.
In a smaller lineup type league(start 9 or 10) there is a very good case for JT. Adam and myself are split on this one. This is an example of a perfect deal for both sides. I think there is a realistic case to be made that Joe Mixon isn’t too far off PPG from JT. With that in mind, Pittman even in smaller formats should slot nicely as a WR 2 for most teams. If he’s your WR 3, you’re golden! Pat F is a decent enough dart at TE to balance out the deal and possibly flip it to the Mixon side in any format. For bestball however, you already know! Mixon, Pittman, Muth by a country mile.
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Beyond the Mic🎙
@ATM gives advice on picking the right direction for your dynasty squad.
When picking the contending direction obviously you want to have the team which scores the most points this season. When leaning into this building and stocking up on veterans which will put points in your lineup, make sure to have a few pieces on your team which will appeal to the opposite build (the rebuilder). If every player on your team is an aging veteran and you trade the majority of your futures away, you will have no flexibility to trade with a team that is not contending right now. Having the flexibility to trade with everyone in your league will give you significantly more opportunities to gain value throughout the season via trading. -ATM
You can check out all the content that the 4D Guys dropped this past week ⬇️
@FantasyGenes discusses ADP, and how to take advantage of the value gaps .
Understanding Bestball ADP from sites like Underdog or Draftkings can give you future context on a player's worth to the public based on scoring settings. This in turn will grant you an advantage to apply against your league mates on sites like Sleeper and ESPN where the bulk of the drafting season is mid to late August compared to Bestball drafting which has been going since May.
A prime example is Bills WR Jamison Crowder. We assumed that he would be the auto lock for the slot role. As usual, Crowder is unavailable due to "soreness," and he has dropped 30 spots in Sleeper ADP. As a result, Isaiah McKenzie's ADP has been on the slow rise on Sleeper and more aggressively on Underdog(35 spots up).
@just_ike09 weighs in on his favorite mid-round WR
The Cowboys used a 3rd round pick this spring on WR Jalen Tolbert (South Alabama) with the hopes of replacing some of the production lost from Amari Cooper (trade) & Cedrick Wilson (free agency). With each passing day, it’s increasingly likely he will get this opportunity to start as early as Week 1. There’s a lot to like about his profile - dominated at a small school (97th percentile dominator rating) with a 33.4% target share (96th percentile) while producing over 1450 yards & 8 TD’s in 2021.
With Michael Gallup likely to be limited during the first half of the season, along with the recent injury of James Washington (expected to miss two months), Tolbert should be locked into a role as the WR2 in the offense behind CeeDee Lamb. Over the last 3 years, the Cowboys WR2 has averaged 7.7 targets per game, so the opportunity will certainly be there for him.
His Underdog ADP is up 14 spots over the last week as he’s now going 127th overall (11.07, WR58). Please take advantage of his ADP now, as it will continue to rise closer & closer to the start of the season. Draft Jalen Tolbert!
@EricVanekNFL gives out training camp targets to go buy.
Training camp news is coming in hot and heavy; everyone always talks about the sells. Oh, this player is getting hype, SELL! Am I guilty of that? Hell Yeah, I am! Today, though, I’ll give you some buys you should consider this week. My first buy is WR Devante Parker for the New England Patriots. Devante Parker? Insert puking emoji here. That was me for the last 5-6 years of Parker’s career. I always despised the guy, but why am I in on him now? I think he is absolutely dirt cheap and will be the #1 alpha WR in New England. He’s being used like it currently in practice, and Mac and Devante are developing quite the chemistry already. A third RD pick and a replacement WR should do the trick!
Romeo Doubs is another buy for me. He is getting tremendous buzz right now, and admittedly, I have 0 shares of him. Where there is smoke, there is fire, and this one is almost blazing to the out-of-control territory. Doubs has been getting praised by every beat writer at Packers camp and even the man pulling the trigger, Aaron Rodgers. Doubs is another guy you can probably trade a third and another filler WR to try and get and just see what happens here. Things are looking good for the rookie so far.
The last and final buy for me? Deshaun Watson. Regardless of what anyone thinks about the situation, now is another excellent buy window to buy Deshaun Watson. If you can give your opponent another QB in return for Watson straight up, it’s a smash. Will you probably have to add something else to it? Another draft pick? Most likely, yes. I am willing to pull that trigger. Watson will still be in his prime this time next year and be ready to roll. Once he gets back on the field next year, his price of three first-round pick values is back on the table. Buy now while the price is cheap!
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