⛽️🔥Twas the Week before the NFL Draft...

Pre-Draft ADP, Trade of the Week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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Jordan will be back next week. Check out the analytics channel inside Destination Devy for updates.

The 2023 NFL Draft is just a week away, which means our pre-draft ADP is almost complete. We have been grinding mocks on this class since the summer, watching the rise and fall of many prospects. Check out our first two rounds of ADP below.

Since the last newsletter, we also eclipsed our 100th mock on this draft class. With representation from all corners of the Destination Devy community in this one, I personally had a blast seeing everyone make these picks. Check out the full board below.

Who do you think had the best draft? If you would like to participate in our rookie or devy mocks and help shape our ADP, click below to join our community


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Injury Profile: Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson carries one of the highest injury profiles in the 2023 class, having suffered multiple soft tissue injuries and knee and shoulder sprains. While concerning, the good news is that he has not suffered any significant long-term injuries, such as an ACL tear or other significant tear. The bad news is that he has suffered recurrent injuries across three seasons in which he barely played (22 games in three seasons, with 12 in his last season).

Which injuries should we be most concerned about? He has suffered recurrent right knee injuries, including (per his own report to interviews) multiple meniscus tears, which eventually led to surgery to repair, as well as recurrent hamstring strains. In theory, these would be concerning for continued recurring risk by some, but I would say we have to look at two objective facts: 1) he was able to play through 12 games this past season with minimal limitations and only a mild hamstring strain early in the season that didn’t cost him any games as a full-time starter, and 2) if NFL teams show no concern about his medicals through the entire combine screening process and he winds up drafted within the top five picks (projected to go in the top three currently), then we shouldn’t be concerned about his health long term regarding these past injuries. It’s easy to over-analyze past injuries when it appears to be a high amount on paper. However, if he has only suffered one significant injury (meniscus that required surgery) with no significant concerns more recently over the last year as a full-time starter, we have to have the ability to look beyond the “on paper” risk. Of note, soft tissue injuries (specifically hamstring strains) have roughly a 38% recurrent injury rate, with around a 12% same-season reinjury rate. However, that number continues to drop with every season past the last injury date (view Deebo Samuel as an example of that). I’m not overly concerned about Richardson despite his extensive injury history, and wouldn’t recommend fading him for it.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Our real money pre-NFL Draft rookie drafts are complete. Thirteen leagues where people have dollar bills on the line. Thirteen leagues, where your conviction on a prospect before you see draft capital decides whether or not you push the button. If there is one thing I learned, it’s that there is a very clear tier break in this class already. I’m willing to bet that it also holds up post-draft capital. If the NFL mocks from the people in the know are even close to correct, this tier will stand. It may even be emphasized. You want a top 7 pick in your rookie drafts.

There is a decent gap from pick 4 to pick 5. The gap from pick 7 to pick 8, though, holy cow.

The range people are willing to take WR2 and RB3 in this class is pretty substantial. This will be your last chance to exploit that. If I have rookie picks 8-12, I’m sniffing around on the cost to move to 6 or 7. Get you a Will Levis or a Gibbs. Even if you aren’t a fan of the prospect, the market value will also reflect this tier break post-draft. Get ahead of the rise!


Off the Line Draft night props? @Just_Ike09 has a few in mind

The one thing to look forward to with the NFL draft around the corner is a variety of prop bets! We’ve seen a ton of line movement over the past few weeks, such as Bryce Young moving to an overwhelming favorite to be the Number 1 pick at -2000 and Will Levis all the way up to +250 odds (tied with CJ Stroud) to be the Number 2 pick.

The most intriguing bet to me as of right now is Anthony Richardson’s draft position. Recently as perhaps last week, the O/U was set at 4.5, with the Over favored at -330. As of today, he is now the co-favorite to go Number 3 overall (along with Stroud & Will Anderson). The top 4 teams that are favored to draft him: Titans (+200), Colts (+350), Raiders (+400) & the Seahawks (+600). The Titans being the favorite only means one thing - they are going to try & find a way to move past the Colts to get their guy. We’ve seen a lot of crazy draft night trades & next Thursday night is shaping up to be no different.

While it’s safer to bet on Colts/Titans, I’d sprinkle something on Seattle at +600, as that is not as far-fetched as it seems. Geno Smith did just re-sign, but Seattle protected themselves as the contract was structured in a way that they can move off of him (with minimal financial impact) as soon as next year. Live a little!

This also shaping up to be a TE-rich 1st round, as Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave & Darnell Washington are the names that have consistently popped up in mock drafts. The O/U for TEs to be drafted in the first round sits at 2.5 (-220 Under, +170 Over).

The NFL seems to be down on this year’s group of WRs, which could cause them to pivot to TE, as this is a strong class as well as very talented at the top. Green Bay (15), Chargers (21), Jags (24), Cowboys (26) & Bengals (28) all could be viable landing spots as each of these teams have a need at TE and/or could use an upgrade at the position. I’m smashing the Over 2.5 at +170!

We are just a few days away from the NFL draft. What can you be doing before the draft to help yourself?

Well, it goes back to something I’ve talked about here and on the podcast in the past. Auto Accept Trade Block! Things are going to change here quickly once players get drafted. RBs are going to get replaced, WRs we like are going to move down the depth chart, this TE class is super strong, and guys who we thought were safe could be moved down that depth chart as well.

Right now is a great time to throw up some auto-accept trade blocks, but you must know what the real true value for some of these guys is. Guys like Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, sure we would love to get a 1st RD pick for them, but in reality, they’re probably not. You may have to settle for two 2nd RD picks in this draft, or a second in this draft and a second next year.

So go to your trade baits on MFL or Sleeper and change the players' nickname on what you would accept for one of these players. Any sort of player that is just replaceable you think you could get something for. Allen Robinson just moved to the Steelers, any 3rd RD pick will do, and I’ve seen multiple types of these trades so far. Don’t be afraid to do this and move some of those easily replaceable pieces who are almost getting into roster-clogger territory. Get the free pick and the free roster spot! You’ll thank me later.

As we are now less than one week away from the NFL draft, I would like to write a letter of caution to the good readers of the newsletter. The Overreactions are about to be WILD! Heck, they already have been. Look no further than how the entire community tried to break down the exact words of Josh McCown’s offhanded comment to C.J. Stroud a few weeks ago. The odds market just on the 1.01 pick alone has already surged multiple times one way or another for something as small as that.

The dynasty community’s value on these players is no different. It feels like there is no consensus in the order that these drafts will play out at this point, even at the 1.01 in this community. Dynasty players are guaranteed to Overreact to some of these landing spots and draft capital that shake out next week, and you need to be prepared to ground yourself in advance. The way that I do this is through drafting with mock draft capital.

This exercise gives you an invaluable look at how the best and worst outcomes affect your decision-making process in your rookie mocks. Does the landing spot of these Quarterbacks matter to you to truly supplant one over the other? Or do you believe enough in the talent of one or two to still leave them as your number one guy even if they were to fall all the way to Tennessee at pick number 11 overall? Just go back to the draft process last year for another good example. After mocking Malik Willis at the 1.01 for so long, a lot of people actually failed to react enough to his third-round draft capital and were still taking him in the late 1st or early 2nd!

However, the market overreacted to the “PRIME” landing spots of James Cook and Skyy Moore going to the Bills and Chiefs. Vaulting them over other much more complete profiles because of that hope of the potential upside. The point here is to know where your projected ranges lie for players ahead of time. Especially if you’re right after the NFL draft ends, and the market will not of had the time to sort out a consensus ADP yet. We’re all victim of being influenced by so many outside factors. Some are good, and some are bad. But I believe if you take the time beforehand to truly assess a wide variety of outcomes, you limit your risk to overreacting and making a rash decision in the heat of the moment as you’re on the clock.

Make sure to check out all of the mock drafts over at The Fantasy Draft Room, Wake Up, Americas Game, Dynasty Berry’s Rookie ADP, and all of the fantastic content available to you so you can be the most prepared player in your fantasy drafts coming here soon.

Dynasty Trade of the week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Austin Ekeler and a 23 4th round pick, OR the 1.05 in the upcoming draft?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7, click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day, get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues.

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