⛽️🔥 Its Underdog Draft Season!

WR Decision Tree, Trade of the week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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Now that rookie draft season is in full-swing, we can start trying to predict how these rookies will perform their first season in the NFL. Since WR success is arguably the toughest to predict, I like starting with that position first. Additionally, we will be looking at one of my favorite methods of prediction: regression trees.

Decision Tree Graphic

That right there is a regression tree. It is essentially a series of questions that you answer about each prospect until you get to the bottom. At the bottom is your final Rookie Season PPG prediction.

For example: Let’s look at Seahawks’ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The first question we ask about the prospect is at the top: “Was his overall selection greater than or equal to 52.5?” Since JSN was the 20th overall pick, we answered “No” and moved toward the right and downward to our second question. The second question for JSN is: “Was his Best Season Yards per Team Pass Attempt less than 2.815?” JSN’s Best Season Yards per Team Pass Attempt at Ohio State was 3.25. Therefore, we answer “No” again and move downward to the right. We ultimately land at the furthest right node - 11.74 PPG, which is the highest outcome for any rookie.

I went into a bit more detail in our Analytics Channel on Discord and was able to take a look at a few different other outcomes with different stats added/removed. If this type of analytics is up your alley, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter at @JordanBackes33 or jump into our Discord at the All-American tier or higher!

Best Ball Mania 4 is already filling on Underdog, the most exciting fantasy football tournament this summer, with $15,000,000 in prizes available. People have been sharing strategies in the Destination Devy discord along with their entries as the energy for this contest ramps up. Every week JRich shares an ADP document with us which helps identify trends in value. Here are some of my notable observations this week:

Kenneth Walker - Seattle spent a second-round pick on community favorite Zach Charbonnet during the draft, which certainly muddies the waters in that backfield. Walker has lost a full round of ADP this week and is currently being selected at the back of the fourth with an ADP of 45.7. He ranks as the RB15 over guys like Dameon Pierce, JK Dobbins, and Dalvin Cook, who largely have much less competition to worry about.

Jordan Addison - This was deemed a honeypot landing spot by our community for months prior to the NFL Draft; pairing Jordan Addison opposite Justin Jefferson to learn from and grow into a complementary role on this Vikings offense. Addison is now being drafted with confidence as his ADP continues to rise even more this week, up 13.6 spots in ADP to 71.3 at the back of the sixth as the WR35. Hopefully, you snagged some pre-draft shares where he was going several rounds later.

Dalton Kincaid - The hype is getting out of control already on Kincaid with the Bills' offense. Reports are Kincaid will be used in a slot receiver role, so many people are projecting the rookie tight end to be funneled targets. With an ADP of 116.1 currently, he has gone up two full rounds in the last week and is ranked as TE11. I am optimistic for Kincaid, but Stefon Diggs should remain the primary option, and I remain skeptical about year-one breakouts at tight end.

Anthony Richardson - Last but not least, this week is one of my personal favorites from the 2023 class, Anthony Richardson. Underdog drafters are clearly willing to take the shot on the Colts' new signal caller with an ADP of 84.3 ranking as QB10 on the platform. ARich is up two full rounds this week, putting him over Tua and Dak even. His legs should provide a high floor, and his arm will decide his ceiling.


Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Nothing to talk about but rookies. That’s all there is at the moment. Because of this, the current dynasty market is reflecting it. I wanted to take a look at a few market inefficiencies of my favorite website. (/sarcasm) Don’t take this as a bible, but use it as a baseline. Only you know your league. Explore some of these; never know who may also rank these players the same.


Anthony Richardson KTC QB #9

I love ARich, but damn this high already? Deshaun Watson stands out to me as a 1-for-1 I’d do in a second. Watson at QB 13 currently is almost too easy of a pivot. Also check the temps on Tua, Dak, and Kyler. Ask for a 1st; you never know.


Nothing to report. The only one close to standing out that’s far off is Gibbs/Saquon, but that’s a pure contender move.


Jaxon Smith-Njigba KTC WR #11

What? Already? Tyreek, Diggs, and Davante are all below him. All of them are in primes. All of them are a threat for WR 1 OVERALL. Easy smash.

Jordan Addison KTC WR #18/Quentin Johnston KTC WR #20

Seeing MPJ, DJM, Aiyuk, and Treylon behind these two already is shocking. Plenty of options here for any kind of a +.


Dalton Kincaid KTC TE #5

He’s done it. Usurped Kittle in the top 5. Wow. Not to mention you can look to Dallas Goedert, Pat F, or David Njoku and feel much better about your TE room.

Underdog roster build (Heavy on the Bengals stack)

On the latest episode, we did a live best ball draft on Underdog (The Puppy) from Pick 2:

The Ultimate Bengals stack

  • We saw an opportunity to lock down the Bengals passing attack w/ Chase, Higgins & Burrow with the first 3 picks (2,23 & 26). The NFL released small portions of the schedule, which includes a Bengals/Chiefs Week 17 matchup in Arrowhead - a fantasy football manager’s dream! While this was a risky approach, you do have to be different when competing against 100’s of thousands of people in a large field tournament - so, it was necessary.

Non-Bengals WR’s

  • DJ Moore was a good value (7 spots past ADP) & he is now tethered to the most talented QB he’s ever played with.

  • Rashod Bateman is arguably under the most pressure amongst the Ravens WR’s. He’s battled injuries over the last few years and is facing target competition in rookie Zay Flowers & Odell Beckham Jr. However, he is pretty cheap on Underdog as the WR 47 & had some positives in 2022 - 21% target share (48% WR target share) & 21% air yards share Weeks 1-7.

  • Jameson Williams will miss the first 6 games due to suspension, but when he returns, he should provide some spike weeks in this (expected) prolific Lions offense.

  • Cedric Tillman is a dart throw that may end up getting some run towards the end of the season. The Browns were devoid of draft picks but used their first selection (3rd round) on Tillman which says a lot. Not a bad way to round out the WR room.

RB room

  • JK Dobbins, Cam Akers & Rachaad White were all big winners coming out of the NFL draft - each of their teams did not invest any significant draft capital into their respective backfields. While each of them drafted before ADP, we are confident they can carry the load & return significant value this upcoming season.

  • Antonio Gibson is in the last year of his contract & still possessing home-run speed & excellent passing game chops (11th in TS%, 9th in YPRR, 12th in YPR). We believe he is in for many opportunities as Brian Robinson had really bad efficiency & showed that he’s not nearly the playmaker Gibson is.

  • Tyler Alligier’s ADP took a huge hit (24+ spots) after Bijan Robinson was drafted 8th overall. We believe he is good value in the pick 150+ range as the Falcons were the most run heavy team in 2022 & indications show they won’t deviate too much from that. Opportunities for Alligier should still exist.

We are pleased with how the squad turned out after starting off with the Bengals' stack. This is one of the many team builds you can deploy but act now, as the NFL schedule is out & these opportunities may cease to exist as the off-season progresses

This week I want to take a look at a couple of running backs I’d like to target right now who could be bought cheaply now and who could pay off big for us later on this season.

The first one is a tandem, and that is Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler. You could throw DeWayne McBride in there to the 7th RD rookie, who you could easily get in your rookie drafts in the 4th RD or so. Firstly, why are we targeting these Vikings' backup RBs? It sounds like the Vikings really are done with Dalvin Cook and are going to cut him here at the end of the month if they can’t find a trade partner before then. Thus, this is the time right now to strike on buying Alexander Mattison or Ty Chandler, or McBride cheaply. Especially Chandler, he was one of DD’s favorites last season in rookie drafts, and I think he is ready for a big breakout if he is in a tandem with Mattison. I’d throw some of those late thirds at Chandler a few times. You could use an RB.

The next one up I’m looking to get is Jerrick McKinnon who the Chiefs just brought back. It’s looking like the backfield is going to be much the same as last year with Pacheco, McKinnon, and CEH. McKinnon really had good numbers for the team last year, especially in the passing game. I really like McKinnon as another good cheap value this year for the Chiefs, and wouldn’t shock me if he finished as an RB2 this season. Another guy you may be able to get for a 3rd, or a 3rd and 4th.

The last one I want to mention here is James Conner and Keaontay Ingram. Conner is being left for dead by most of the fantasy community, but man, if he survives all season long without injury, he’s going to be a 300+ touch workhorse for Arizona. Ingram is in line for the 2nd RB spot right now too. I think both guys have tremendous values right now. Who could get you good cheap one-year production this year. I wouldn’t mind getting a few shares for my teams this year.

Hopefully, you guys are able to use this and make a few trades and get some nice cheap production!

Rookie drafts are in full swing, and we are in the heart of the off-season! This week on The Overreaction Podcast, we dove into the timing of making trades in the off-season and upcoming trade windows to be on the lookout for. Here are just a few players we have our eyes on:

Kendre Miller – The backfield does seem a little bit crowded with Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams BUT AK should be serving a suspension for the battery charges stemming from a fight Pro Bowl weekend in 2022. When that suspension is announced, this will be a window to shop Miller in your league and see who might be excited about his role to start the year.

Jared Goff – Now here is one we want to buy… and to be honest, your window to do so is open right now! Can you guess Goff’s age? I know it feels like he’s been in the league for a decade, but he is only 28! Goff finished the year as QB10 in fantasy, but he’s in the last year of his deal. Top it off with the Lions drafting Hendon Hooker in the 3rd round, and the Goff owner may be starting to worry. However, the Lions have already come out calling this a “redshirt” season for Hooker, and combining that with a wide-open NFC North; it would be very hard to imagine the Lions letting Goff walk if they can win the division or make a playoff appearance. Start asking around NOW and see if you can acquire Goff before prices go up!

Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett – Both of these WR are at the tail ends of their career, both guys saw their team use a 1st round pick on a WR in the draft, but both are still providing high-end WR2/back-end WR1 production for fantasy teams. IF YOU ARE WIN NOW.. and I do mean truly win now, these two could provide you the most bang for your buck. However, you do not need to do it now. This is where timing comes into play. In training camp and pre-season, there will be lots of buzz around JSN and Johnston, so use this as your opportunity (closer to the season) to buy these guys at a reduced price if they are available.

Here are just a few ideas and examples of what trades we are targeting and the events/ timing to be aware of. There will be lots of news, rumors, and one-handed catches that will give a bump to player value. When the window opens, just don’t be afraid to make a move!

Dynasty Trade of the week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Jefferson or the package of Mattison/Amon-Ra/2024 1st?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

If you want access to hundreds of trades per week from a group that's tapped into dynasty fantasy football 24/7, click the button below and subscribe to the All-Conference tier. For less than .25 cents per day, get access to this channel as well as multiple databases to help you dominate your dynasty leagues.

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