⛽️🔥 Week 4 NFL prop, 2023 September rookie ADP

Blake Corum love, week 5 CFB prop and More!

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!


Week 4 NFL Prop bet courtesy of MySpari.Com

Josh Allen o282.5 PASS YDS -120 DK Sportsbook

Allen has very nice road splits hitting the over in 8/11 road games dating back to last season.

The bills coming off a tough loss need a bounce-back game.

Baltimore has allowed Joe Flacco to throw for 309 passing yards, Max Jones for 321 passing yards, and Tua Tagoviola to throw for a milly.

Advantage Josh Allen.

Let’s get paid!

J Rich's Week 5 College Football Pick

Week 5 is here! Last week was a very GOOD week for Ray. 4-2 on the week and now we turn to one of my favorite props of the week: Michael Wiley Over .5 Rush TDs.

Arizona which is more known for their passing offense led by Jayden de Laura has a sneaky play this week in starting running back Michael Wiley. Wiley is in a committee but has scored in each of the past 3 games and coming off a season-high in carries. To top it off they are up against the nation's worst rushing defense in Colorado which allows an average of 323.2 YPG on the ground (not a typo) for a nice 6.95 per carry and 16 rushing touchdowns in only 4 games. So Arizona should have no problem running the ball, and I would say there's a really good chance Wiley ends up in the end zone on Saturday.

Notable guys to score against Colorado: Zach Charbonnet and MO Ibrahim have each scored three touchdowns against the buffaloes' sieve of rush defense.

Overall, Ray has a CFB record on the season of 11-5-1. Click the button below and tail the Michael Wiley play! Best of Luck

If you love our show and want to support everything we do for you and have fun placing bets with us, head on to PrizePicks. PrizePicks offers a 100% Deposit Match for our people, up to $100. Click the button above to take you right there to sign up to get in on the action below!

This week's spotlight is on Michigan's Junior RB Blake Corum. The 2023-eligible RB had a 234-yard and 2 TD performance this last weekend against Maryland. So far on the year, Corum is 9th in all of NCAA RBs (min 20 rush attempts) in terms of PFF Rush Grade. He is also tied with Minnesota's Mohamed Ibrahim and Illinois' Chase Brown for 1st in rush attempts of 15 yards or more (11 total). In 2021, Corum brought down 24 receptions, which was good for about 10% of Michigan's total. However, he only has two receptions this season.

Corum is already almost halfway toward his rushing attempt number that he posted last year. That is most likely due to the departure of Hassan Haskins and Donovan Edwards being unable to play for the previous few weeks. That being said, Corum is making the most of his opportunity; already finding the end zone 9 times through 4 games.

Corum’s knock will be his size. He has the BMI we like to see, but how will his 5’ 8” stature look to some of the NFL Scouts? Time will tell, but this RB is doing all he can this year to boost his 2023 NFL Draft stock.

This is just one SMALL part of the work that goes into JB's analytic database. To gain access to these types of charts and much more subscribe at the All-American level tier below!

With a full month of action under our belts, the 2023 rookie mocks have been heating up in September as we react to the games each week. Some prospects are living up to the hype we had before the season, while many others are largely disappointing to our expectations. Let’s dive into some of the trends this month.

At the top of the draft we have a clear tier of prospects we are comfortable spending early capital on with Texas running back Bijan Robinson being the unanimous 1.01 and junior quarterbacks CJ Stroud and Bryce Young right behind him. Jahmyr Gibbs has been a common pick at 1.04 but with underwhelming performances so far this season it makes me wonder if he should be taken this high.

Wide receivers and tight ends have been dropping like flies in our mocks this month. Boutte, Smith-Njigba, Johnston, all of them have lost multiple points of ADP since the summer, with Jordan Addison still holding the line at 1.12. Michael Mayer is no longer a first-round selection as he fell into the second round in September with an ADP of 13.6, which is down three spots from last month. Tight end is largely an afterthought in these mocks, and rightly so; I have no interest personally in investing in the position with my rookie picks.

The second round of these mocks is where things get interesting right now. Tyler Van Dyke out of Miami is one of the more notable names at quarterback that has taken a nosedive this month, going from an ADP of 16.9 down to 27.6. He’s being replaced by KJ Jefferson in our mocks, the quarterback for Arkansas who is up a full round of ADP at 22.7 in September. Similarly, Jermaine Burton and Tyler Harrell were the two Alabama wide receivers we had high hopes for coming into the season, but both have let us down to this point; while Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee and Konata Mumpfield from Pittsburgh have both done enough to garner some interest in our mocks as they rise into the second round.

Click below for how our 2023 rookie ADP would look across a two-round board

Bye weeks are nearing, and there are several key fantasy studs injured. I'll start by saying, attempt to Buy Low on guys like Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, Michael Thomas, and Chris Godwin. You probably won't find a discount accompanying them in sharp leagues, but it's always worth an attempt. I don't expect any of those four to miss much time, and they carry high ceilings.

First off, last night, Tua Tagovailoa suffered his second (suspected) concussion within a FOUR-day time span, a scary prospect for any player. His movement after the injury was characteristic posturing, indicative of a severe brain injury. The excellent news is Tua was cleared last night to be discharged from the hospital and also cleared to fly home with the team, indicating he does not have intracranial hemorrhaging (severe brain bleed). Despite that good news, I won’t be surprised if Miami places him on IR due to the severity of suffering two concussions within such a short period of time, as well as navigating the media storm. Now, I don’t typically jump to worst-case scenarios, such as Tua deciding to retire due to health concerns. As of right now, I would plan on him returning to the field within the next five weeks.

Christian McCaffrey (quad) continued to miss practice. However, the Panthers reportedly remain optimistic that he can play this week, so keep an eye on his status. Dalvin Cook (left shoulder) was able to practice in full and can likely play with a harness this week. AJ Dillon (knee) has returned to full participation, and the expectation is that he will be able to play. Jonathan Taylor (toe) returned to full participation and should be good to go. James Conner (knee) was limited Thursday due to a knee injury but playing with a low ankle sprain a week after being limited. Cordarelle Patterson (knee) missed practice for the second day in a row, as did David Montgomery (ankle), putting both of their statuses for this week in jeopardy. JK Dobbins (chest) was full participation in practice Thursday and is not expected to miss this week. Melvin Gordon (neck) remained a limited participant, but it is not likely to keep him from playing this week. Dameon Pierce (hip) has been limited in practice but is not expected to miss time.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) missed practice for a second day in a row, putting his status in jeopardy for this week. DJ Chark (ankle) was also out of practice, leaving the Lions potentially short-handed this week. Gabriel Davis (ankle) did not practice Thursday. However, there's a decent chance this is load management with an excellent opportunity to play this week. Michael Gallup (ACL return) remains a full participant, but we still don't know when the Cowboys will allow him to debut. Dalton Schultz (PCL) was able to practice in a limited fashion but may miss another week. Marques Valdes-Scantling (abdomen) remains a non-participant; note that Justin Watson appears to be playing ahead of rookie Skyy Moore in recent snap count trends. Keenan Allen (hamstring) returned to limited practice, and the team is optimistic about his return this week, however, note that he was spotted walking off of the field with a trainer on Thursday (we don't know if there was an issue, but keep a close eye on this situation). Michael Thomas (toe) was a non-participant, and Jarvis Landry (ankle) a limited participant, so the Saints may at least have Landry active alongside stud rookie Chris Olave this week. With Sterling Shepard (ACL) done for the year, Kadarius Toney (injury prone) not practicing, and Wan'Dale Robinson (MCL) not practicing, we could be looking at Richie James as the Giants WR1 this week. Devonta Smith (back) was limited due to dunking all over the Commanders' DBs, but returned to full participation Thursday and is expected to play this week. The Bucs could be getting some reinforcements at WR with Mike Evans (suspension) returning, Chris Godwin (hamstring) as a limited participant (rest day on Thursday), and Julio Jones (PCL) limited, but keep an eye on the latter two's status. Rondale Moore (hamstring) was able to get in limited practice and may have a shot at returning this week.

There are many more updates, especially after full injury reports. Be sure to tune in to the Destination Devy Injury Pod that drops on Sunday morning before setting your lineups, and follow me @jmthrivept for live updates.

Beyond the Mic🎙

@ATM explains us why staying attached to a player in rebuild could be a bad process.

When rebuilding, a lot of times, people want to build around a few youth pieces; after week three, we have injuries to Trey Lance, Dak Prescott, and Zach Wilson (although he is set to play this week); Russell Wilson is underperforming, and this is just at the quarterback position (while writing this Tua just took a severe hit and it doesn't look good).

I want you to keep this in mind because I believe it's important not to become too attached to players in a rebuild. Use a youthful piece like Chris Olave, for instance. Yes, he is a young receiver who is producing early, and he could very well be an excellent player for years to come at receiver. You might be saying, "Why would I move him on a rebuild?" Let's say an elite contender is coming to you and offers two "late" 1sts in 2023 and 2024. You are receiving these picks at the worst-case scenario as far as value when you make that trade.

Through 4 weeks, we have seen a ton of injuries and underperformed players. What if these late 1sts you take on are from a team that gets devastated with injuries over this season? When taking these picks, also keep in mind you also can see a massive value bump from variance. If you end up sitting on a top 6 pick in 2023, you will already be ahead, and that doesn't even include the 24 1st round picks you acquired.

Lastly, keep in mind that no player is safe from injury. What if Olave gets hurt? What if Jameis gets hurt and the quarterback delivering the football to Olave hurts Olave's stock? You completely de-risk yourself from a significant Chris Olave value loss; you acquire picks that only will accrue value over time, and you have a built-in multiplier to these assets if the elite contender ends up failing. Don't be afraid to move anyone on a rebuild for draft picks.


You can check out all the content that the 4D Guys dropped this past week ⬇️

@Just_Ike09 is calling passengers for the Romeo Doubs' train

Who is the Packers’ WR1? Before the season, many in the fantasy industry, even Aaron Rodgers himself suggested that it was Allen Lazard. But if you paid attention to many underlying data points (YPPR, target rate, etc), their lack of efficiency for him did not correlate to a number one WR profile.

Then came training camp & preseason, where a 4th round rookie WR by the name of Romeo Doubs began to turn heads w/ strong play & eventually drew praise from Aaron Rodgers. So far through Week 3, we’ve seen the connection between Doubs & Rodgers grow - as evidenced by an 8-73-1 line vs the Bucs D.

Doubs participated in 95% of the routes & currently has a YPRR of 4.15 (7th in the NFL). He has seen his opportunity increase & he’s making the most of it. With Sammy Watkins on IR, and Christian Watson battling a hamstring injury, Romeo Doubs appears to be entrenched as the Packers' top wideout as the confidence & trust he’s gained from Aaron Rodgers continues to grow. Start Romeo Doubs in your lineups moving forward!

 @FantasyGenes has some ideas on how to treat these early-season RB producers

By ADP, we saw McCaffrey, JT, Ekeler, Henry, Najee, Cook, and Mixon go in the 1st round. The investments in these RBs have not given the returns we hoped for. Only McCaffrey and JT are in the top 12 currently. We have players like James Robinson(who we all thought was dead to Travis Etienne) at RB2, CEH(fools gold) at RB3, and Khalil Herbert(who has only played 39% of total snaps) at RB8.

In the first three weeks of the 2021 season, the top 12 RB's ADP was 52.8 compared to 62.8 for 2022 per Establish The Run. The one telling stat from comparing 2021 and 2022 top 12 RBs at this point was the receiving game the 2021 RBs were getting. 2021 RBs had an average of 12.3 rec/103.4 yards/.75 td and 2022 RBs are averaging 7.3 rec/52.7 yards/.42 td. 2022 RBs thus far are missing at least 10 pts of production.

So, where do we go from here? Short-term, if you have one of these top 12 RBs like CEH or Antonio Gibson, you can find a team that needs/loves RBs and send a package to get a top 24-30 WR that's on a good offense or an offense that the targets heavily condensed to a few options. Aim for players like Devonte Smith/Cortland Sutton or even Brandon Aiyuk + handcuffs back. Try to get creative, and don't be afraid to "lose a little on a trade" for the bigger picture of getting your team better.

 @EricVanekNFL gives us his best options in Week Four.

It’s time for Week 4, and hopefully, last week; if you followed my advice, you did pretty well! Tua did pretty well despite only having 39 plays on offense, Nyheim Hines did what you asked of him to get you close to 10 PPR points, Chris Olave was an absolute smash home run, and Tyler Conklin also did very well for you in PPR leagues as well. This week hopefully, we can do more of the same here!

I will be looking at FantasyPros ECR rankings to give you a look at guys outside the top 12 at QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, and top 12 at TE as some sleeper options to play this week.

At QB this week, I am going to go with QB Marcus Mariota for the Atlanta Falcons as a good streaming option this week. Not only does Mariota give you that Konami code upside with his rushing ability, but his passing has been pretty solid this year too. The Browns are coming in with a really banged up defense in this well, and I think this game is going to be a little higher scoring than people think. Mariota’s weapons are all healthy in London, Pitts, Patterson. I like Mariota this week as a guy who I believe can finish inside the top 12 for you this week. Don’t be afraid to fire up some Mariota.

The RB that I like this week outside the top 24, is RB28 Tony Pollard. Pollard after a rough week 1 has been absolutely electric on the field since then. He definitely is one of the most explosive players on the Cowboys and this week against Washington I think he can do more of the same. I’d love to see Pollard used more in the pass game this week and I think he will be. Pollard has great upside on the ground as well with multiple big plays the last few weeks. I’m completely fine rolling out Pollard as my RB2 this week.

WR39 this week is someone who usually isn’t there but, I am going back to him this week. WR Elijah Moore of the New York Jets. He has done good with Zach Wilson in the past and I think with Wilson back in there this week , Elijah should get back on track and have a good game against Pittsburgh. This should be a good test for Elijah though but I’m excited to throw him in there this week and see what happens against Pittsburgh. Would not be surprised at a big play or two from Elijah this week.

My TE for this week is TE19 in the ECR and that is Logan Thomas of the Commanders. Thomas has been a medical miracle. Honestly I didn’t think he would do this well, this quickly after his major knee injury last season. Thomas has been awesome this year and I think he will sneak into that top 12 TE’s this week if you need a streamer against Dallas!

Good luck to everyone here in Week 4!

Podcasts This Week

Free-mium ⛽️🔥

The All Gas Newsletter is here to provide you with nothing but premium content for FREE in an easily digestible format to showcase the best of what we have going on throughout the week. Our staff does a tremendous job of making sure this content comes to you weekly, so be sure to give them a follow if you like their stuff to show your support for their work.