⛽️🔥 This WR is Primed to Break out in 2023

Underdog Strategy, Trade of the week and More

Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

Click on the link below to view This Week's Wake-Up episode/Prop bet videos and more!👇

Difficult decisions can exist in any round of an Underdog draft. Being fluid in your process will help you avoid making irrational choices. Players with similar upside can often be had at better value later, allowing you to solidify your roster in unique and thoughtful ways. Here are a couple of examples from this week’s Underdog ADP that may help you avoid some traps out there.

Drake London in the 4th - I like Drake London, but I don’t like his ADP, which makes him a perfect candidate to be fluid with on the clock. Consider Mike Williams instead in this area (who you are getting at a discount versus Keenan Allen) on a better-projected offense. Another option, when you have no RB at this point in the draft, is to consider Jahmyr Gibbs because you can easily pivot to Tyler Lockett or Diontae Johnson, who are always available in the sixth.

Alexander Mattison in the 5th - Mattison is the definition of a dead-zone running back for me. It was cute to take Mattison in the later rounds back in April, but taking him now in the fifth feels wild, given the other options behind him. With Dameon Pierce available a round later and D’Andre Swift still an option in the seventh, I have no desire to buy into Mattison at his price. Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, and Marquise Brown are receivers I feel better about in the fifth round when I am targeting this position.

No hard-hitting takeaways or a buy/sell this week, but I will be highlighting one of our newest additions to our Notion Database: NFL Radar Charts.

As shown over the last couple of weeks with Drake London and Jerry Jeudy, these radar charts help visualize how a player is being used, how efficient they are, and what type of share they are responsible for in a given offense. To go over an example, we will look at DK Metcalf’s 2022 season.

As noted in the subtitle, all metrics are normalized and put into percentile form. The 50 percentile mark is the NFL average for that given position; in this case, it will be the NFL average for all WRs that had a minimum of 15 targets. As you can see, DK was toward the top in Air Yard Share percentile and Target Share percentile; he’s getting a lot of his team’s target share, and most of those targets are coming downfield, as shown by the air yards. However, you do notice his EPA per target and Yards After Catch per Reception are below the average for 2022. This may just be a non-normal year for him, adjusting to Geno Smith, as both his 2021 and 2020 EPA per target and Yards After Catch per Reception were at the 50th percentile mark or better.

Obviously, DK Metcalf is an elite WR in the NFL, but these charts can help us identify some player buys and sells, which is why I talked about London and Jeudy over the past two weeks. Long story short, the more colored area within the points, the better. You want that chart to be as colored as possible, with the points as far to the outside (100th percentile) as possible.

Head on over to Patreon.com/AllGas to sign up for one of our tiers with Notion Database access and come check out radar charts from 2022, 2021, and 2020 NFL seasons. NCAA radar charts coming within the next couple of weeks!


Destination Devy is gearing up for Underdog Fantasy's season-long bestball contests for the 2023 NFL Season. It's a great way to put your skills to the test against us and other top fantasy football analysts this off-season.

And here's the best part: if you use promo code "WAKE UP" when signing up, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100. AND if you deposit $10, you'll get access to strategize with us in the Destination Devy Discord, where you can get additional stats, tips, and so much more to dominate your drafts.

So what are you waiting for? Head over to underdogfantasy.com, sign up, and let's make this season one to remember.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

The Fantasy Football Expo is just around the corner, starting on August 11th. I am very excited about this event this year. I attended last year for the first time, and I can say that it is a tradition I will continue for years to come.

This event gives everyone the opportunity to get together before the NFL season takes place as we gear up for fantasy football. Friday night, getting to network and hang out in Centennial Plaza was a great icebreaker to the event. Saturday’s events taking place at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium is a really unique experience for football fans, being able to step on the field and walk all around the facility. All the booths people have set up on Sunday allow you to get a feel for exactly what they are working on and what they offer, which you can utilize in the upcoming season, and that you may not have otherwise known anything about.

All of this, plus getting to meet some people that have become incredibly close to me for the first time, including Mike, Ray, JRich, Ike and Gene, Matt and Felix from C2C, Bob Lung, and so many others, and I can’t wait to make even more friendships this year at the expo. T-Rock’s carnitas, I’ve also been waiting on for almost a full year. See you there!

Brandon Aiyuk got next!

“One guy you’re going to love to watch this season is Brandon Aiyuk. He was cooking our defense all OTA’s” - George Kittle on a recent appearance on Pardon My Take

It’s time. This is the year we see Brandon Aiyuk take that next step & have a true breakout campaign in 2023. Already coming off of a career-high 78-1015-8 on 113 targets, we believe he has room to grow. He was slightly better than Deebo Samuel (WR17, 34) on a ppg basis - WR23 vs. WR28 and is currently being drafted almost 20 spots behind him on Underdog.

A couple of metrics on his Reception Perception (via Matt Harmon) profile jump out:

  • 79.3% Success rate vs. Press coverage (89th Percentile)

  • 77.1% Success rate vs. Man coverage (91st Percentile)

His route-running prowess & ability to get open also allow whoever is throwing him the ball some easy targets - look no further than his 2.31 target separation (3rd), 116.9 QB rating per target (9th) & ranking in the top 15 in target separation vs. man and overall route win rate.

While Aiyuk doesn’t have the best peripherals as it pertains to target rate (23.3%, #37), he still was top 25 in total targets & target share. Additionally, after the midseason acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk had six games where he saw 7+ targets & was the WR8 overall from Week 6 on in 2022. His current price of WR28 on Underdog (pick 52) is an absolute steal & one of the bigger mispricings of the off-season.

The Overreaction Pod is coming to you with the fantasy dead season overreaction of the week. Sitting at my desk Wednesday morning, I got the notification from Sleeper coming across my phone… “New England Patriots have signed wide receiver De…” and by now, you know the rest. It was not DeAndre Hopkins but current Patriots wide receiver DeVante Parker that was given a contract extension in the form of a 3-year $33 million dollar contract with 14 million guaranteed.

The instant overreaction is that now DeAndre is now an afterthought as the team is investing their capital into admittedly a more questionable choice of WR than where we thought they would. But as of writing this, we do not have details of the contract yet. In my opinion, this deal probably gives a large signing bonus for the guaranteed money and spreads the cap hit away from this year, which may further suggest that Hopkins could be on his way to catching passes from Mac and the Zap.

The question then becomes how this would affect Hopkins’ value. It seems like the lofty expectations of DHop becoming a Bill or Chief fade further into the dust every day. The opposite end of the spectrum now seems more likely in either the Patriots or Titans. However, I don’t think this should be a complete bomb to Nuk’s value. He is almost assuredly the WR 1 in either of these offenses and should be peppered with as many targets as he can stay healthy for. Regardless of where he ends up, I’m still fine holding my Hopkins shares and seeing how the season plays out.

Dynasty Trade of the Week

The good people of DD bring this trade to you in our exclusive Dynasty Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

What side of this deal do you want? Hockenson and Dotson or the Andrews/Godwin side?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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