⛽️🔥 2023 Rookie Pre-Combine ADP is here!

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We will be finishing up our four-part piece on some of the top RBs in the 2023 class this week. If you missed any of the previous week’s newsletters, be sure to check them out on the main site. With the NFL Combine this weekend, we will finally have a bit more clarity on these prospects and how they will rank amongst each other.

Longhorn’s RB Roschon Johnson was a forgotten man throughout his NCAA career. He came into Texas as a 4-Star QB according to 274 Sports and transitioned to RB rather quickly, and injuries hit the backfield hard in 2019. He had a solid year but never carried a full workload. We all know Bijan Robinson came in at the start of the 2020 season, so Johnson was relegated to the backup role for the remainder of his career at UT. He has the size and ability to be a viable RB at the NFL level, and this weekend’s combine should help solidify his draft stock. For additional info on Roschon Johnson, check out my previous player spotlight here:

Next, we have Auburn’s RB Tank Bigsby, who has been a top-end prospect since his freshman year in 2020. After his great season, Bigsby fell victim to the Auburn system and never really had the collegiate career we all hoped for. However, that is not stopping me from putting him near the high end of the 2023 Draft Class. As shown in the graphic, Bigsby grades out well in a lot of predictive metrics. As long as Tank has a solid combine, he should get the requisite draft capital and a target in our upcoming rookie drafts.

Lastly, and probably a name that not many know, is Tulane’s, Tyjae Spears. I wrote about Spears a while back [https://allgas.beehiiv.com/p/tyjae-spears-profileplayoff-bestball-strategy], and his Senior Bowl week has only continued building the hype. The Tulane RB has a well-rounded profile and looks to show off some of his ability this weekend. Capped by his Cotton Bowl performance, Spears had a great final season at Tulane and is currently my 6th highest-rated rookie in the 2023 Draft Class. I will be tuning in very closely when Spears’ height and weight come out. If he comes in at 204, like he did during Senior Bowl week, and runs in the 4.40-4.43 range or lower, it is wheels up for this prospect.

We have arrived at the NFL Combine this week, and I couldn’t be more excited! Adding more data points to our prospect profiles and watching these kids perform in an effort to elevate their draft stock is something I look forward to every year. Let’s run down our top prospects by ADP for the month of February.

1.01 - Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) - The most complete back in the class has little to prove this week. The only question right now is how high an organization will be willing to select him.

1.02 - CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) - Stroud is our QB1 again this month, as he remains the safest option at the position. I am most curious about his interview process this week and how NFL organizations view him as the face of their franchise.

1.03 - Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) - No doubt the hottest topic surrounding Bryce this week is addressing the concerns about his size. We know he is a talented playmaker on the field, but how big is he really, and can he stand up to the punishment at the next level?

1.04 - Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida) - Richardson is rising this month with big media and should put on an absolute show at the combine. Prizepicks has the line on his 40-yard dash at 4.45, with many people believing he can go under.

1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) - JSN is our WR1 this month, and though he may not test like a freak I do expect him to stand above the crowd this week when it comes to the on-field workouts.

1.06 - Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) - Levis is our QB4 this month, but this is still Superflex so he remains in the top half of the draft for our community. The expectation is all four of these quarterbacks will be first-round selections, and the NFL Combine should give us more clarity if that still holds true.

1.07 - Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama) - I know Gibbs is fast, and I know Gibbs can catch the ball, but I need to know his true size more than anything. I would love to see him come in over 200 lbs this week with his expected athleticism to check a few more boxes on his profile.

1.08 - Jordan Addison (WR, USC) - Addison graded out very well for me as a prospect in my process and is someone I will enjoy watching during the on-field drills. The biggest concern, like many of the WR prospects this year, is his size as he has a similar build to Devonta Smith coming out.

1.09 - Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU) - All eyes will be on Johnston this week as this specimen looks to display his freakish athleticism. Expect big numbers in the vertical jump, along with a blazing time in the 40-yard dash for his size.

1.10 - Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA) - Charbonnet has a lot to gain at the NFL Combine this week but a lot to lose as well. If he runs above 4.60 in the 40-yard dash he will be labeled a plodder, but if he crushes it, he should be a lock for day 2 considerations.

1.11 - Devon Achane (RB, Texas A&M) - Concerns of his size be damned on this one. I will be glued to the screen when Achane gets in his stance for the 40. We could see Achane flirt with Chris Johnson’s record (4.24) this week, which would send Achane’s stock through the roof.

1.12 - Kendre Miller (RB, TCU) - Unfortunately, Miller will not be participating at the NFL Combine due to an injury. He is a community favorite for us, and we hope he safely recovers in time for his pro day. If he misses both events, his stock will plummet most likely.

If you would like to participate in our rookie mocks and help shape our ADP this off-season, click the link below!

Injury Profile: Marquise Brown, WR ARI

Brown was on an absolute terror at the beginning of the season, scoring 109.5 points for an average of 18.3 points per game as the WR7 overall prior to breaking a bone in his foot. He missed five games, playing in the final six games of the season but scoring a max of 12.10 points. However, the majority of the final production came after Kyler Murray tore his ACL. It seems like the dynasty community has forgotten about his hot start to the season or is discounting him far too much for Murray, likely missing the first half of the season in 2023 because he is coming off as the WR24 overall in startup ADP. Brown is only 26 next season, so if this value holds, he could wind up being one of the best bargains of the off-season.

From an injury perspective, there should be some concern regarding his foot injury history, having suffered a Lisfranc injury with surgery, multiple ankle sprains, and this most recent foot fracture. But when he’s healthy, he performs at an elite level, especially with Kyler Murray (his old college quarterback) throwing to him and DeAndre Hopkins (on the trade block) out of the picture. I would expect a return to high-tier performance once Murray returns in mid- to late-season 2023, with overall low reinjury risk from this most recent fracture that he had suffered. While the multiple injury occurrences have a slight concern, the reinjury risk is actually relatively low per each injury, and I would expect him to return to form in 2023. Buy while you can.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Adam gives some advice on the running back landscape as we enter NFL Combine weekend.

As the combine information becomes concrete, we have another data point on all of the 2023 rookies in this class. The more information that becomes concrete, the more the hype will build for this class. This a quick reminder to let that value on those picks continue to cook.

While combine talk is going to flood your content feed, we need to have a conversation about something different. How you value every position should be something that you have thought out and be part of your process in dynasty leagues. Every person does not have the same process and does not value assets the same, and this is what makes team building and trading so fun.

The running back position is at an all-time low in dynasty value, perceived value, and in fantasy production. Will the position continue to trend lower from where it is today? Or will there be a slight resurgence in value from the position with a deep class coming in with the 2023 running backs? It is a difficult question to answer, and the truth is I don’t know. I think what has become much more clear, of late, is that this is no longer a position in which you can leverage a surplus to your leaguemates like you can at the quarterback position and the tight end position. The NFL as a whole is going to more committee backfields, and the amount of running backs who receive north of 70% of snaps is smaller by the year. When you combine this with the fact that the position is viewed as one with a short shelf life, it is a very volatile asset to invest in.

The consensus right now says that Bijan Robinson is the 1.01 in this class and that everyone else doesn’t warrant conversation at that spot. Since “everyone” is saying this, it must be true, right?

The information we have at hand really tells me that we should be treating the running back position as a short-term asset and one which we are really valuing from the production they give you in your lineup, not as an asset that you project for long periods of time. Where it becomes convoluted is that we want young running backs on rookie contracts because the shelf life of their dynasty value is very short. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker are the only running backs who are under 23 years old right now in the top 20 running backs. 7 of the top 24 running backs on keeptradecut today are from the 2022 class, a class which we all said was not very good at the running back position. The reality, though, is that some people valued Dameon Pierce as a top 10 running back this year because he was young and was producing. People want to have their cake and eat it too.

If you value the running back position primarily for their production, you might view things in this class a little differently than consensus. I want running backs that produce fantasy points for my team. However, when a running back's dynasty value becomes greater than his production value, it is not wise to hold that asset. The 1.01 (Bijan Robinson) currently holds a tremendous amount of dynasty value and is currently the 12th pick overall in dynasty startups. Our startup heat map has that pick as at least three generic 1st round picks in overall value.

What is the likelihood that a running back gives you enough production to warrant sending three future first-round picks?

Let’s talk about some early Underdog Best Ball ADP and touch on interesting findings so far.

It is very obvious that the market is in love with WRs. We are seeing Hill/Waddle, Brown/Smith, and Chase/Higgins all within the first 25 picks. Fantasy owners are wanting the premium pieces of great offenses early. Seeing that these WRs are going this fast, you will have to activate the GO GET YOUR GUY code if you are trying to stack with one of these QBs.

This leads me to my other observation. Folks are not playing around with the elite QBs or close to elite QBs!! In 2022, Allen, Herbert, Mahomes, Lamar, Hurts, and Kyler were gone before the start of round 6. Right now, we got Allen, Mahomes, and Hurts gone before pick 20 and 8 total QBs(Burrow, Fields, Lamar, Herbert, Lawrence) before round 6. Right now, the data is telling you not to play around with the QB position, and I agree based on the fact that there aren't even 24 QBs in fantasy that you would be fine with. I'm sure the number of QBs going that high will reduce as we get through the combine and get rookie fever.

Be patient through this time and dabble through the offseason so you can get a gauge of how the market is moving.

Eric has some Dynasty QBs to target as the off-season begins.

In this week’s article, I am going to highlight a few Quarterbacks I am looking to buy this off-season and mostly cheaper ones.

First, one I am going to highlight is Kyle Trask from the Tampa Bay Bucs. So with Trask, it’s this simple, the Bucs currently have no QBs on the roster other than him. At the combine this week, GM Jason Licht talked about how they didn’t waste a 2nd RD pick on Trask not to give him a shot. They were super positive about Trask. Right now is the time to strike on Trask now for CHEAP. By cheap, I mean to send any 3rd RD pick for Trask and see if that gets it done. It is a good way to get a cheap Superflex starter potentially. If we swing and whiff on this one, then it only cost you a 3rd RD pick big deal.

The next one up is QB Jimmy Garoppolo. This one is just a fully believe Jimmy is going to end up with a starting job somewhere next season. Maybe with the Raiders if they do not get Aaron Rodgers possibly and teams back up with Josh McDaniels. The Saints and Panthers are also options as well. I’d be fine trading a mid-2nd RD pick for Jimmy G if I need a QB in a Superflex right now for Jimmy G and see how it goes.

Last one is QB Jacoby Brissett. I think Jacoby has a shot to be a starter this off-season as well, at least a bridge type. The one that is making the most sense to me right now is in Arizona. The new OC there, Drew Petznak, was the Browns QB coach last season. I think picking up Jacoby Brissett until Kyler Murray is healthy would be an ideal fit for the Cardinals this off-season. So just like last year, you could get a half year's worth of starts out of Jacoby. I would be willing to trade that same 3rd RD pick as I did with Trask for Jacoby.

Hopefully, you guys can get some of these deals done!

Let us know on Twitter if you’re able to get some of these guys for cheap and good luck!

Dynasty Trade of the week

This trade is brought to you by the good people of DD in our exclusive Trade-Show channel, where we only post and discuss dynasty trades.

Another trade involving the 2023 1.01 with the other side receiving a top-tier QB. Which side do you think got the better end of the deal? Do you side with the two top three 2023 picks side or the top four QB in Jalen Hurts?

Tell us on Twitter @DestinationDevy.

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