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⛽️🔥Will Levis: The Fantasy QB you don't want, but need on your roster

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Destination Devy has been a staple in the fantasy community for over three years. Y'all know prospect identification and evaluation is the name of the game in dynasty fantasy football. Destination Devy is the place to be to get ahead and stay ahead of your league mates. Founded by Ray G, we aim to give you actionable and some of the most entertaining football content on the planet. Dynasty fantasy football is a game of chess, not checkers. The more you know about college prospects and upcoming classes, the better equipped you will be to position your dynasty rosters for short and long-term success. Tap into the best community for that below! Enjoy!

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Back with part three of four of our deep dive into the 2023 RB Class. The RBs are arguably the strongest position of this draft, both top-end and depth, so if you missed Part 1 [https://allgas.beehiiv.com/p/deep-dive-2023-rb-pt1] or Part 2 [https://allgas.beehiiv.com/p/deep-dive-2023-rb-pt2], go take a look at the first six RBs we looked at.

The first man up this week is Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda. If you tapped into the film study, you know there’s one word to describe Izzy: fast. This projected Speed Score is almost the floor for this guy (4.45 at 215 lbs). There is much speculation that he will end up running sub-4.40 around the 215-220 lb mark. That being said, one downfall of Abanikanda is his receiving, only having 38 career receptions at Pitt, even taking a hit this year with the departure of Kenny Pickett.

TCU’s Kendre Miller is a player that is all over draft boards. He won’t end up running at either the NFL Combine or TCU’s Pro Day, so we will not get a Speed Score that we desperately desire. Miller’s final year at TCU, once he got the starting job, did him wonders. He ended up with just under 1400 rushing yards and 17 TDs as he helped the Horned Frogs reach the CFP Championship Game. Once again, this RB’s weak area is his pass-catching (29 receptions in three years).

Lastly is an RB that had a great final year at Georgia, and that is Kenny McIntosh. Receiving is one of McIntosh’s strong areas, as he saw higher percentiles in both target and reception share in his team’s offense. He also was a pretty above-average runner, but never really saw a full workload while at Georgia with all of the other talented backs, they always have rotating there. With a three-down skill set, McIntosh looks to wow some NFL front offices at the NFL Combine next weekend.

This week I wanted to take a look at how our ADP compares to curated NFL mock ADP from nflmockdatabase.com. This felt like a good exercise to understand where we are too high or too low on certain players in the fantasy space vs. the actual NFL draft.

Kendre Miller (RB, TCU) - The hype continues to build on Kendre Miller in fantasy circles with an ADP of 12.5 in February. This places him as our RB5 right now heading into The Combine. However, when compared to NMDD he is ranked as the RB10 with a day 3 grade. Miller most likely won’t be doing much if any testing at the combine as well due to injury, so it feels unlikely he gets any boost heading into the draft unless he does show off at his pro day.

Eric Gray (RB, Oklahoma) - On the other hand we have a prospect like Eric Gray who comes in much lower for our community in comparison to his NFL perception. Gray currently ranks as our RB16 with an ADP of 35.3 in February, where NMDD has him at RB11 in a similar range to Kendre Miller. I know we do prefer Miller over Gray at this time, but should they get similar capital a two round discount in our rookie drafts is worth considering when the NFL views them so similarly.

Marvin Mims (WR, Oklahoma) - Mims has been up and down for us for as long as I can remember doing these mocks. Right now he sits as our WR9 with an ADP of 31.3. NMDD has him ranked as WR13 with prospects like Parker Washington and Xavier Hutchinson ranked ahead of him. In any event Mims is on the border of day two capital and will need to flash at The Combine and his pro day in order to elevate his stock, otherwise he will be labeled a roster clogger from the get go.

Overall I was happy to see minimal deviation between our ADP and NMDD. The good people at Destination Devy have a finger on the pulse of all things NFL draft and rookie related, so if you want to stay as tapped in as possible make sure you join me and the rest of the crew at the link below!

If you would like to participate in our rookie mocks and help shape our ADP this off-season, click the link below!

Injury Profile: Treylon Burks, WR TEN

Burks is a polarizing prospect: a former first-round pick who is raw as a wide receiver but carries immense upside and potential as an alpha target in the Titans' offense. The price tag is a little shocking, but the dynasty community is likely betting on the youth and potential of a 6’2”, 225-pound behemoth athlete. Burks is currently hovering around WR21 overall in startup ADP, just ahead of Christian Watson, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin, and Jerry Jeudy, all players who produced well in prior seasons. Watson out-performed Burks in their rookie seasons, yet Burks is being taken one spot ahead of him despite less target volume, bigger quarterback questions, and far less snaps played per game.

The cons are that Burks entered the league with one of the highest injury risk ratings for a wide receiver prospect, and wound up suffering injury after injury in his first season (groin strain, turf toe, concussion, groin strain), along with conditioning concerns. The pros are that he had 1.96 YPRR, and he looked the part in a few games throughout the season, particularly as a deep threat. From an injury risk perspective, it seems like it may be best to pass on Burks at a startup price tag or to sell him in dynasty, depending on what you can obtain for him. From smarter minds than me, seems like if you can obtain a 2023 first-round pick within the 1.05 to 1.08 range, it may be worth it, but again it’s a gamble based on where he was going last year in rookie drafts, and his perceived talent level when healthy.

On the flip side, there are some managers who want nothing to do with him and may be willing to part from Burks for less than that, in which case you could acquire and hope for the best. Based on year one, it’s definitely a risky bet. He will have one of the highest injury risk profiles going into 2023. If you gamble on him, you’re gambling on his ability to stay healthy, remain the team’s top target, and that the promotion of new OC Tim Kelly being a boost to the entire passing offense.

Follow me @jmthrivept for live updates over the off-season.

Beyond the Mic🎙

Will Levis.

Just reading or saying his name invokes massive negative opinions. You can almost hear the blood boil when discussing his possible outcomes. The Dynasty community as a whole is out on Will Levis. I'm here to say that even when he gets premium NFL draft capital, that animosity will still linger for most. People are very slow to change priors.

Last year I pounded the table for Kenny Pickett. Nothing to do with his talent or situation either. It was about retaining value in dynasty. Quarterback hit rates and multi-year dynasty value retention far exceed any other position when playing in superflex leagues. The mistake I made and what I have since corrected is not factoring in community sentiment.

If the community is going to continue to be down on Will Levis, even if he's a top 5 NFL draft pick, there is no need to reach in your rookie drafts. If you're in a league with sharps or a group that heavily follows The Destination Devy Team, then yes, go ahead and select Will Levis early. The smart ones adapt to new information and don't lock themselves into takes for the duration of the rookie process. There is little chance he falls into a "value" range. Most other leagues, though, capitalize on the sentiment. If you think he deserves to be picked 4th in your rookie draft, factor in how 5-8 feels. If they are dead set on not liking or taking Will Levis, it opens up the possibility of trading back to that pick and getting the appropriate plus on top. Or conversely, you can try to trade up with your later picks and walk away with two rookies on the cheap. Capitalize on your league-mate bias.

I am one of the biggest Will Levis stans you will find. I will say that where I take Mr. Levis is going to 10000% depend on the league I'm in. Adam won't let me get him at value, so I'll take him early. In my more casual leagues, where people don't tap into the fine people here at DD, I will abuse the "sentiment" surrounding Will and draft him at value spots.

Who needs a big off-season?? Gene discusses the Monsters of the Midway

Let’s talk Bears. They have a little over $98 million in cap space, a bunch of holes on both sides of the ball, a QB that is begging the front office to get him some help, and most importantly, the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. The bears have the flexibility to spend a lot of money on talent and maneuver the draft to maximize value and get picks in the future.

The offensive line has to be a top 2 (and not 2) need for this team. They could not keep Justin Fields upright at all, granted some of that is of his doing but overall, giving up 55 sacks is horrendous.

Additionally, the Bears trotted out a bottom-of-the-barrel skill position group on a weekly basis. This is why it’s imperative that they spend in FA or via trade. Some viable FA/trade targets that would be a good fit include:

  • RB Miles Sanders (Spotrac value at 2 yr/$14.4M)

  • WR DJ Chark ( Spotrac value at 3 yr/$29M)

  • WR Tee Higgins (Trade; rumors of potential contract impasse)

  • WR DeAndre Hopkins (Trade & all but gone from Arizona; would give Fields a top WR)

Needless to say, lots of eyes will be on Chicago’s off-season moves & how they will help their franchise QB entering his 3rd year in the NFL.

Eric has some Dynasty RBs to target as the off-season begins.

This week I want to take a look at some RB buys for dynasty leagues. Last week, I took a look at a few Tight End’s that I was interested in buying this off-season for a cheaper price. Today I'm looking at some RBs who I feel I can buy for a little cheaper.

First RB today is RB Kenneth Gainwell for Philadelphia. Gainwell showed pretty well in the Super Bowl, and Gainwell is always going to be a committee back, but I think Gainwell is in line for more touches this coming season. Hopefully, he will be able to be used more in the passing game and run game. With Miles Sanders and Boston Scott both free agents this off-season, Gainwell should be in a prime spot to have an even more secure role and make a touch bump increase for 2023. I will buy some Gainwell cheap this off-season.

One more RB I’m interested in this off-season is James Conner of the Cardinals. What the hell James Conner? Yeah, James Conner, and it’s because he should have another workhorse role, and he’s going to be dirt cheap. Arizona should add another back this off-season but, with the money they’re paying Conner for one more season, I think he should be someone you can get this off-season for cheap. He’s going to be just a volume play RB2 for me, but hey, if he only costs me a mid-2nd RD pick or a player and 3rd RD pick? Sign me up for some cheap James Conner.

The last RB I want to buy this off-season is second-year runner Malik Davis of the Dallas Cowboys. Davis was a guy who really popped in the pre-season, and his few opportunities in the regular season as well when Pollard or Zeke would miss a little time. With Pollard possibly gone, and Zeke, who knows? He could get cut. He could be the lead guy. Regardless, Zeke is looking cooked, and if Pollard goes. Malik should have a big-time opportunity to be RB2 for Dallas if things work out here for him, and he’s dirt cheap. Sign me up for some Malik Davis!

Let us know on Twitter if you’re able to get some of these guys for cheap and good luck!

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